To think the Tories have it in the bag.

[Littlefluffyclouds81]

I hope IABU.

To be fair, this is only based on the West Country (I do quite a lot of driving so I'm including Cornwall, Devon, Somerset, Wiltshire, Dorset, bristol and bath). Driving around, I'd say the amount of stake boards and posters I've seen roughly represent these proportions:

Conservative: 60%
Green: 15%
UKIP: 15%
Lib dem: 8%
Labour: 2%

They have it sewn up, don't they? My mum is involved in politics and her prediction is a Tory/UKIP coalition

If that happens I'm emigrating.

[WonderingWillow]

I agree. I think the Tories have won this election and they know it, hence the lack of entering into debates etc. Lib Dems will do very poorly I expect.

[Anniegetyourgun]

People say a lot of things on the TV. Who were they and what authority or expertise could they claim?

[JohnFarleysRuskin]

I agree UKIP won't win many more seats.

I can't see Labour doing well, I really can't. All this talk of the SNP will really stuff them in England.

[JohnFarleysRuskin]

If it was Colleen Nolan on Loose Women, then it's fair to say it's a load of rubbish.

[WonderingWillow]

john I agree. I think the lib dem coalition with the Tories has screwed up the prospect of further coalitions. I don't think Ed Miliband would be able to stand up to the SNP.

[ShellyBoobs]

I really hope it's not Labour.

If the red Eds get in amongst other things we will unfortunately have to increase the rents on our BTLs pretty much immediately.

We are currently under market rates by around 12% but we can manage that as things are now, which I think is good for the 2 families and one single lady we have as tenants.

[Corneliusmurphy]

I'm hoping the people who are voting ukip would usually vote Tory, therefore splitting their vote and giving labour a majority. Though I don't expect it to be a massive one and I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with another coalition.
I live in what's usually considered a safe Tory area but there are certainly a lot of ukip posters up round here.

[MonstrousRatbag]

Lord Ashcroft (don't like him but his polling is fairly good) said on Monday:
The Conservatives lead Labour by 34% to 30% in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, conducted over the past weekend. The Tories are up one point since last week and Labour are down three. The changes are within the margin of error, suggesting that the parties’ national vote shares remain very close. UKIP are unchanged at 13%, the Liberal Democrats up one point at 10%, the Greens down two points at 4%, and the SNP up two points at 6%.

Thing is, national polls can be misleading. All the polls and predictions also ignore an important factor: some people buck the trend because they are great MPs with a lot of loyalty locally, or conversely because they are twats and the voters want to get rid. And though ashcroftpolls.com is an interesting site, the whole thing adds up to 'no, I don't know either'. It's just too close to call.

[ComposHatComesBack]

I''m with you. Leave all the scum to their nasty socialist shithole

so you'll have to close down your Charm School and locate it elsewhere?

[CasperGutman]

In live in quite a naive middle class suburb in a Tory-held seat. Even on the poshest streets I'm seeing more Labour and Plaid Cymru posters than Conservative ones. They certainly don't have it sewn up here!

[Sickoffrozen]

It's dull as dishwater so the sooner it's over the better. I'm past caring who wins.

[RedToothBrush]

I'm a swing voter in a key swing seat. Every election in the last 18 years has been very reflected in the way the seat has gone. In the last election it was a rare true three horse race. So I guess that makes the constituency very interesting in terms of what type of people will ultimately decide the election and suggests I'm possibly more representative as a voter who will make that decision.

So if thats true and I'm representative of other key voters then my thinking is this:

1. UKIP scares me. I think the threat of UKIP has been over inflated based on the number of seats they are currently being predicted to win but it still worries me. I therefore think it will effect how people vote unpredictably. It may bring out more voters both for and against. Its definitely a motivating factor for me. I would vote ANY way that would prevent UKIP getting in.
   
   So I suspect there will be a large anti-UKIP vote.
   
   
2. The SNP, a party with a mandate to break up the UK, is not a party I think is in best interests of Britain as a whole. I think its a massive conflict of interests. Whilst I think Scotland should be better represented in Westminster, I do have a problem with a party whose main argument for Independence was based on the price of oil. To me, putting them in charge of the nation's purse strings would be a disaster. My vote COULD be influenced by the risk of this.
   
   So I suspect that there will be an SNP backlash.
   
   
3. I don't think Clegg is so bad. The local Lib Dem candidate is very good and has a fantastic track record in local council. (I will probably vote Lib Dem for local election). However the vote for Lib Dems nationally has broken down here. So I don't think I would vote with my heart.
   
   So there will be the predicted collapse of the Lib Dems
   
   Which really does leave me with Labour and the Conservatives. I wouldn't vote Green as I think they are away with the fairies. I wouldn't vote TUSC as they are frankly delusional if they think we can make the banks state owned. And there is no Independent standing here. So rather than the perception of there being more choice this election I feel I have less.
   
   
4. I have major issues with Ed Balls and trusting a syllable that comes out of his mouth. I think Miliband is incredibly weak. I don't think Cameron is terrible himself, but is at the mercy of other forces in the party and I think the football club gaff is very telling in his desperation and the advice he is getting. I probably like more Labour policies at face value but I remain unconvinced at whether they are a) workable b) affordable in practice. And there is still Ed Balls. I think Cameron is weak within his own party in a minority government, so there are the spectres of who else is lurking behind him. Like Boris Johnson.
   
   And did I mention how much I hate Ed Balls?
   
   In truth I can't put much between them.
   
   So it may well come down to what the local candidates are like for me and everything that's going on nationally really may end up being completely irrelevant. I tend to think there's probably a few people in a similar mindset.
   
   Which does beg the question about what's the quality of candidates like in swing seats like mine?

[Anniegetyourgun]

Thing is, the one person with the biggest say in whether Labour goes into coalition with the SNP, Ed Miliband, you know the one, Labour party leader? categorically stated that he wouldn't. Now we all know that politicians do not by any means tell the absolute, unvarnished, unspun truth, and on the rare occasions when they do they may later be forced to change tack. But the fact he said he wouldn't is being totally ignored as our good friends the Press, also not known for a reluctance to spin, seem to take it as gospel that he will, must, always intended to, and will probably enjoy it. Is it not actually possible that Labour may be able to form a coalition, or strong enough links at least with other parties, to not be led by the nose by Ms Sturgeon? Yes, the SNP will have a lot of influence whoever comes out with the largest minority, as it seems likely they will have a lot of seats. There's very little doubt about that. They will be more minded to exercise that influence towards a socialist agenda, they said that too. But a coalition is not a given, it's but one of several possible scenarios; more likely than some, but by no means guaranteed. (It's also not the worst scenario by a long way in my opinion, but I recognise not everyone would agree!)

[Smugnogplease]

I'm in sw( South of gloucester) and it's mostly labour boards here thank god I've only seen a couple of Tory ones on farmers fields

[MrsBodger]

Guys! Chillax already!

It doesn't matter who gets in!

We're all going to get tax breaks and free childcare and new houses and individual personal trainers and everything!

I know, I know, it seems weird. For as long as I can remember, they've been telling us there's no money. But now it's all different!

So stick that big old cross wherever you like and watch the good times roll!

[ginghamcricketbox]

Sturgeon is on with Tinsel tits tonight (BBC 1 7-30pm ).
No doubt telling Millibean exactly what he is going to do.

[ouryve]

Groundbreaking? Do you mean fracking?

:o:o:o

[WhiteConverseSkinnyJeans]

It doesn't matter who gets in!

We're all going to get tax breaks and free childcare and new houses and individual personal trainers and everything!

I know, I know, it seems weird. For as long as I can remember, they've been telling us there's no money. But now it's all different!

So stick that big old cross wherever you like and watch the good times roll

Lol

[PeeNoMore]

:o MrsBodger

[Wideeyedcarrrot]

If it's a labour/SNP coalition I'm emigrating.
Hideous. Worst outcome IMO. Except perhaps for a ukip coalition with anyone but can't see them getting enough votes for that. Have kind of discounted them.

[MrsKoala]

Well round here the Tories most defo do have it in the bag. I think we are one of the safest Tory seats going. Prince George and his scrumptious dimply thighs could run as a labour candidate against a lump of old conservative cheese and the Tories would still romp home. Ukip are the main fear. I suppose at least they don't make the Tories look so bad...

My sister lives in Eastbourne and the roads there look like a lib dem love fest. Not sure what their guy is offering, but it must be good.

[BudsBeginingSpringinSight]

Prince George and his scrumptious dimply thighs could run as a labour candidate against a lump of old conservative cheese and the Tories would still romp home. Ukip are the main fear. I suppose at least they don't make the Tories look so bad...

[Italiangreyhound]

Let's hope not! If we non-Tory voters get out there and vote, hopefully not!

[Anniegetyourgun]

Alas for your cynicism, MrsBodger. To quote the classics: you're right, of course, but it's still a terrible thing to say.

It's wall-to-wall Labour posters where I live, but outside the centre of town tends to be pretty solidly Tory whether they advertise it or not, hence why we have a sitting Conservative. According to the polls he is quite likely to hang on. I'll do my best to see he doesn't, of course. I know there's a UKIP candidate because I've seen leaflets. It's rumoured there's a Lib Dem who is clearly keeping her head down, whilst the Greens are practising what they preach by not wasting any paper.