To think the Tories have it in the bag.

[Littlefluffyclouds81]

I hope IABU.

To be fair, this is only based on the West Country (I do quite a lot of driving so I'm including Cornwall, Devon, Somerset, Wiltshire, Dorset, bristol and bath). Driving around, I'd say the amount of stake boards and posters I've seen roughly represent these proportions:

Conservative: 60%
Green: 15%
UKIP: 15%
Lib dem: 8%
Labour: 2%

They have it sewn up, don't they? My mum is involved in politics and her prediction is a Tory/UKIP coalition

If that happens I'm emigrating.

I really hope so! A majority would be nice (but miraculous).

I don't think anyone has it in the bag, I'm thinking it'll be another hung parliament tbh.

If you're judging by posters alone then lib dem's have it in the bag where I live and have done for the past two elections as well. There's a huge lib dem backing here in West Yorkshire and yes, our local MP's are always lib dem but it hasn't won it for them has it?

Not a single Tory board round here. In my formerly safe Labour but now target SNP constituency the SNP boards were out in solitary splendour until last week when the Labour ones began to appear. If boards are an accurate predictor then we're headed for a marginal SNP win over Labour, with a significant Green presence. No other parties to be seen.

Judging by boards is ridiculous though - if so Labour would win here every time - but in reality its a safe Tory seat.

If you judge it by boards around here there is no election going on.

HappyBubbleBrain was that necessary?

I think most people around here (from chat, boards and just people I know so not exactly a fool proof survey!) are voting Tory.

If you judge it by boards we have tree with Lib Dem, Labour AND Conservative boards on it nearby. I can only assume its a prediction of a three way coalition.

It's all Labour & Green posters round my way but then I'm inner London.

The thing with the current Tories is, even people I know who are a bit right of centre or have voted Tory in the past, think this lot are rotten. It's the sense of total lack of compassion for the poorest and most vulnerable that gets me - Tories are always punching down not up. I certainly don't trust Labour on the economy but the Tories don't seem to have made a better job of it either - just made a load of people very miserable whether they are in work or not.

www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2015/feb/27/guardian-poll-projection

I really like the graphics from the guardian projection site. It's really easy to understand, is based on a whole range of polls and has a constituency map option.

It changes daily, sometimes a few times a day.
It looks like we're heading for a long settling period after the election. The Tories will probably have the largest number of seats. They may attempt to form some kind of coalition but I don't think the Tories or labour will be able to achieve a majority without the backing of the SNP unless something drastic changes. All this negative rhetoric about the SNP is going to make things awkward after the election when it becomes clear it's a choice between working with the SNP or a Tory/Lab coalition. It looks to be the only conceivable way to secure a working majority.

Surely the condem coalition is dead? The dems have lost too many seats to make a majority. So what would miliband do if the snp offer to coalesce and offer leadership?

Labour wont need a coalition if they get enough seats, say 280. The SNP will just vote with them every time, they can run as a minority Government.

I think Labour will go down the minority government route but they'll have to use SNP votes to pass policies with the Tories squealing constantly about legitimacy. The rhetoric will be that a Labour Party with less votes and potentially less seats than the Tories is governing only because of SNP votes. The Tories look to me like a party preparing for a loud, noisy opposition.

It's funny, marshmallows, I talked to my (nice) Conservative neighbour yesterday. For fun, we negotiated a coalition agreement between us (Labour and Conservative). Surprisingly easy.

She's prepared:

to drop the bedroom tax. Understands its rationale but does not like the nature of "unexpected" consequences.
to drop Cameron's proposed changes to inheritance tax. She would like one day to see the tax abolished but reckons that changing it in times of austerity is inappropriate.
to forego all additional pensioner benefits beyond the state pension. She doesn't need Winter Fuel Allowance etc. She reckons pensioners should have to apply for these.
to scrap tuition fees and introduce a progressive Graduate Tax for all graduates (not just recent ones).
to match whatever Balls and Miliband have promised to the NHS.
to split the difference on the speed of deficit reduction so long as the direction of travel is downwards.
to drop the new proposals about selling public housing to tenants until a million new affordable houses have been built.

I was prepared:

to drop the Mansion Tax. If we're going to have a wealth tax, why just houses?
to drop the 50p top rate of income tax. It won't collect much.
to compromise on non doms. Charge them more for that status but don't abolish.
to drop the two recent market intervention policies (utilities and private landlords) in return for greater security of tenure legislation.

It wasn't a remotely comprehensive discussion (or costed in detail). It was a bit of fun but it interested me how easily we could find some common ground in the absence of party tribalism.

I hope not. I'm not sure the country can stand another 5 years of IDS bashing the disabled, health service cuts, abuse of teachers.... constant speculation about europe. etc etc etc.

RedToothBrush, I think you're in the same area as me, a swing seat that has reflected the outcome of the last however many elections. As a NHS employee (HCP) who now also cares for a disabled child, hell would have to freeze over before I would vote Conservative. The problem I have is I don't trust Labour, I would never even entertain the thought of UKIP and LibDems have no chance. I may have to vote Labour as a tactical vote.

We can assume that on many issues Plaid Cymru and the SNP will vote with Labour irrespective of pacts as they have broadly similar agendas. Ditto the SDLP, PUP and Greens.

It might be harder for the SNP than they think, trying to hold Labour to ransom and extract promises in return for support, over matters that their supporters think they should back anyway. It quickly starts to look very grubby indeed.

Same problem for the Lib Dems: how to influence the shape of things to come without looking like the Westminster equivalent of Del Boy Trotter?

Where I live, if you went by boards etc then SNP are the only party. No-one else exists.

Most of the people I know are voting SNP. A few green. No Tories or Labour whatsoever.

grovel I would totally vote for you and your neighbour. You sound like a coalition that would actually work.
Fat chance anything like that is gonna happen in real life.
I am so torn on this election, until now I have always voted Labour in the end, and Lib Dem in council elections, preserving the pretty decent status quo of my ward. However, I cannot cannot bear the people who would in all likelihood make up the Labour government, and while my local (Labour) MP will be fabulous (Keir Starmer), I just can't warm to Miliband.
I wonder if the Scottish Independence referendum and the 1992 election are truer indicators - i.e. the media making a noise about a left leaning result when the result was the older, more conservative voters mobilised and came out in force. I do worry that if the Tories don't win it, Boris Johnson will inherit the throne and by sheer force of his bizarre X Factor personality (that hides a horror beneath) storm to power in 2020. shivers

BunnyFint I think you might be in a different one actually.
I'm in the NW.

Labour wont need a coalition if they get enough seats, say 280

Trouble is no one is predicting them to get that many.

Sounds like a plan grovel.
I think /hope monstrousratbag has the right analysis of the relative strength of the SNP bargaining position. Also the media had called a YES vote in the referendum and were nowhere near the actual 45/55 split. Given the percentage of "Ashcroft" seats in current SNP projections and the small numbers of locals polled in these seats and their relative inaccuracy in the referendum I am sceptical about the current projections of SNP landslide.

Grovel that does all sound, mostly, sensible. I can't have any serious discussions about economics though as my grasp of understanding taxation and money is so poor, and always has been. Don't even try me on mental arithmetic! So I'm very aware that I'm out of my depth on those issues and can't really differentiate between the parties beyond the obvious differences, on economics.

But I just don't understand how the Tories can keep cutting services at local levels and expect the country to function? If everything is gone or cut to the bone, from libraries to parks and open spaces provision and children's centres and support groups for older people and all the other things local councils supply, what will become of all the jobs those services sustained? Where will those people work? If in the end we have nothing but street lamps and rubbish collections, what will be left? I have this sneaking feeling the Tories would like it all to be private - private libraries, private gym memberships instead of leisure centres, playgroups run by churches and private groups instead of children's centres - all of which have their place, but if there is nothing publicly owned and freely accessible to all any more, what kind of country will we live in? Not one I want to know, that's for sure.

My area is littered with Conservative signs. If you know the area then you will notice that they are all on land owned by our local millionaire. It's a safe labour seat, they got 65% of the vote in 2010.

I'm voting Tory. I vote for my best looking/sounding local policies. I agree with stuff the current incumbent has done and is proposing in terms of infrastructure, roads, house building etc.

The labour candidate is far too wishy washy for my liking. Spent most of her campaign leaflet that came through my door giving me a sob story and no hard facts or figures.

I've had nothing through from lib dem, don't even know if there is a candidate.

Not voting UKIP even though I do think some (not all) of their policies make sense, there is too much risk of a weirdo influencing things.

Did anyone see Panorama last night, with that American guy Nate Silver doing his predictions for the election results? He has accurately predicted the results of the last two US elections based on statistics, so it was interesting. However, the outcome he predicts is www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32488206, which is interesting, but pretty depressing whichever outcome you favour.