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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To think the Tories have it in the bag.

200 replies

Littlefluffyclouds81 · 27/04/2015 12:12

I hope IABU.

To be fair, this is only based on the West Country (I do quite a lot of driving so I'm including Cornwall, Devon, Somerset, Wiltshire, Dorset, bristol and bath). Driving around, I'd say the amount of stake boards and posters I've seen roughly represent these proportions:

Conservative: 60%
Green: 15%
UKIP: 15%
Lib dem: 8%
Labour: 2%

They have it sewn up, don't they? My mum is involved in politics and her prediction is a Tory/UKIP coalition Shock

If that happens I'm emigrating.

OP posts:
PenguinsandtheTantrumofDoom · 27/04/2015 12:33

Erudite - did Clegg say that. I thought it was a more wishy washy statement about the biggest party having the first chance.

Littlefluffyclouds81 · 27/04/2015 12:33

I can't argue with that Orlando!

OP posts:
TaliZorahVasNormandy · 27/04/2015 12:36

I havent seen any Tory boards from voters. Loads of Labour, one UKIP and a lib dem.

ExitPursuedByABear · 27/04/2015 12:37

Percentage of the vote does not translate into seats though, because of weird boundaries.

Someone in the paper at the weekend suggested a Tory/Labour coalition. A bit like Germany.

There's a thought.

DurhamDurham · 27/04/2015 12:38

God help everybody if there is a Conservative/UKIP alliance.

TheFecklessFairy · 27/04/2015 12:40

Why, Durham? Please explain (without resorting to histrionics!)

sophie150 · 27/04/2015 12:42

Rural areas tend to vote conservative but the more heavily populated city areas tend to vote labour. If you look at a map of the uk coloured by constituency it will look mostly blue but that isn't necessarily an indication of anything

Feminine · 27/04/2015 12:43

I live in the West Country/ south West.
In our tiny village, we have masses of ukip bollards.
Some conservative MP s stuck in trees...
And one small, tiny wee, green party sign!

DurhamDurham · 27/04/2015 12:43

I think that it is the worst possible combination of politics for me and my family. I feel that neither would represent my views or have a positive impact on my family life or in my working life, I work for a charity as a respite co-ordinator and our funding has taken a battering since the downturn.

grimbletart · 27/04/2015 12:43

Boards tell us nothing. And polls in such a complex situation are not helpful in guessing the result.

Boundaries are weighted in favour of Labour

ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/electoral-bias/

So Tories need a lot more votes than Labour to win.

Orangeanddemons · 27/04/2015 12:47

I'm in Sheffield Hallam (Clegg was electioneering on my road last week, as he finally remembered he does HAVE a constituency)

We have loads of vote Labour signs. More than I've ever seen before, it's really struck me. No Tory/Ukip/green though

RedToothBrush · 27/04/2015 12:47

The picture in the NW is very different. Predictions are that the conservatives will lose virtually all their seats here.

So YABU to base your assumptions on the SW.

Strangely enough the country extends beyond Bristol.

Clegg's seat is under pressure so all bets are off on what the Lib Dems will do, because it may not be under his leadership anyway.

However my suspicion is I think we will have a minority government of some sort, after a couple of weeks of chaos and no one agreeing. Instead of a coalition there will be informal pacts made issue by issue. Or we will be looking at a second election.

It depends on what leaders will be prepared to sacrifice in order to become king or kingmaker. It will be interesting that's for sure.

I was right about last result which few predicted, so I'm interested to see if I can get it right again

AyeAmarok · 27/04/2015 12:47

In Scotland before the Referendum last year, I think 80-90% of posters etc were Yes.

Thankfully, the UK is still together.

So don't put too much focus on posters.

BuggerLumpsAnnoyed · 27/04/2015 12:47

I don't really think lib dems or UKIP are going to get enough votes to have any say tbh. The only minority party that will get enough seats to have any say wil probably be SNP. And they will not do a deal with Tories.

MaidOfStars · 27/04/2015 12:48

By your logic, and using the same methods applied to my own observations around Durham & Sunderland, Labour are assured of an unanimous majority, OP

And in Manchester.

Erudite · 27/04/2015 12:48

I think that it is the worst possible combination of politics for me and my family. I feel that neither would represent my views or have a positive impact on my family life or in my working life,.

As would a Labour/SNP for me and mine.

MaidOfStars · 27/04/2015 12:49

(Actually, maybe not a unanimous win, but a landslide at least).

Pandsbear · 27/04/2015 12:51

And we have loads of Labour/Green boards here (East Anglia). Few Lib Dem Further north in the region there are a few lonely conservative boards.

SmileAndNod · 27/04/2015 12:51

I'm in one of those counties mentioned. Of the boards that are out in our parts, the majority are UKIP. We've had a conservative MP for as long as I remember (certainly as long as I've been voting) so maybe people just don't bother putting signs out any more.

Just had the last three election leaflets delivered - ukip, green and independent. I don't really want to vote for any of them tbh Confused

TaliZorahVasNormandy · 27/04/2015 12:54

Oh I'm North Essex, which I think is a largely Tory area based on the local MP's we've had.

butterflyballs · 27/04/2015 12:55

I've only seen Tory and lib dems posters and boards here. However lib dems will get in as its a)a safe seat and b)the lib dem lady is local, kids in school here, fights for the local community and everyone knows who she is. I've never seen the Tory bloke in my life.

DonVitoCorleone · 27/04/2015 12:55

Round my neck of the woods it all seems to be Labour or Ukip

AryaUnderfoot · 27/04/2015 12:58

Last night I had a look at all the bookies odds on the outcome.

They all reckon that the most likely outcome is that the Tory's will get the most seats but that Labour will end up running a minority government.

Orangeanddemons · 27/04/2015 13:00

Actually, I hope it is based on signs. As I'm in Hallam it looks like Labour will kick Clegg out. [hopeful emoticon]

AnnaFiveTowns · 27/04/2015 13:00

Where I live there are loads of Tory boards - but then if you live rurally, as most farmers are Tories, they have them dotted along their fields. It may only be one landowner but s/he can put up loads and loads of boards, giving the illusion of loads of support. Having said that, my constituency is very, very close between labour and the Tories so who knows what will happen.