Indyref 13 - the one where people are nice to each other

[StatisticallyChallenged]

This is continuation of the previous threads. I'm hoping this can be a thread for civilised debate and discussion from people on both sides of the voting line, and where undecided voters can come and chat and get opinions.

Some of the previous threads have gone downhill. So for the sake of a good discussion can everyone please try to avoid nasty comments about the other side? References to Nazis, people being selfish, stupid, thick etc don't help anyone. This vote will be over and the votes counted in about 48 hours. After that we have to pull together whatever the outcome.

SC I think the vast majority of them will be, because the whole principal of 'yes' is Independence At Any Cost.

Banging on? Pot and kettle. And I have a vote mwahahaha

Artyjools That's the way it has been with all the elections I've been involved with (admittedly the last one was in 2009) and from what the woman who will be declaring the overall result said this morning it sounds like it is still the case. The number on the back of the ballot paper needs to be matched with the number on the declaration of identity. I've seen on several occasions where ballot papers are with the wrong declarations and then matched up if the other one appears - usually one assumes it is a couple who have mixed their paperwork up.

But you're right, even though the ballot papers are meant to be kept face down at verification it is still possible to get a fair idea of how the vote is going - people might use heavy ink which shows through or they have heavy writing where you can see the indentations on the back. In a multi candidate election it's trickier to keep track, and giving any indication of the way the votes are going is illegal anyway, but I would be willing to bet that the people from both sides who are at the verification of the postal vote will be trying to keep a mental tally of how the vote is looking from the little they will be able to see. It will also be easier to keep track with only two options on the ballot paper, although anyone making written notes is likely to get expelled from the verification and have to have a chat with the police.

See Kerry McCarthy's twitter gaffe from 2010 for what happens.

Of course we'll be happy, 50.1 is a win.

Are you trying to say you wouldn't be happy if it goes No at 50.1%?

I'll be relieved that it's a No, but I will still feel very sad that half of the people in my country are unhappy and will want to try and do something to fix that.

It feels like all the Yes voters I know are busy planning triumphant parties and will be merrily rubbing their "victory" and "freedom" in the face of the other half of the country.

I think that spoiled ballots and low turnout would send different signals to me if I were a politician. The latter would generally be down to voter apathy which could have many root causes and although those should be investigated and considered they generally are not because once the parties reach the winning post they often don't much care.

A large number of spoiled ballots would give me more concern because that would be a general protest and protests on a ballot paper can translate into many different things at a later stage. I'm talking here about a really significant increase in the number of spoiled ballots because they're usually pretty low unless there is a new and horribly complex voting form brought in and people muck up more.

There'll be a bit of that (works both ways) on Friday and the media will try and stir it up, but I don't think it will go beyond the first couple of days.

Whatever the result I want it to be more than 51% so we don't have endless recounts then conspiracy theories. I want it to be clean cut.

Ok thanks Chillie. I was never part of that bit.

I hope no-one has abused their position and that everyone can rely on the integrity of the system.

I'm also confused by salmond's insistence on an independent Scotland not being referred to as a foreign country - what else would it be?

Well I just spoke to someone who got in a barney with an MP whilst in the course of their respective jobs. His boss will be getting a complaint from an MP and he will lose his job. He said he doesn't care. WTF? Someone doesn't care if they lose their job and a professional MP can't handle an arguement with Mr A N Other and has to lose him his job! I guess tensions are running high indeed!

BTW I believe even ambivalent people like me should find a side they are somewhat closer to and vote. A democratic vote shouldn't be ignored or spoiled.

I was at a verification once where one of the checkers was incorrectly putting all the ballot papers face up. It was eventually spotted by the returning officer when he realised that all the party representatives were very intereested in one table.

Most of us will be glad when it's over. Am however very concerned about the next 2/3 years if its a yes. Worried we have the same acrimony and bad feeling of the campaign ongoing throughout negotiations. Personally won't enjoy that & it's proving to be so divisive.

Just popped on to wish everyone voting a good day tomorrow. Go with what you feel is right, and have a good day. I hope the outcome is good for Scotland both in the short term and long term.

I wouldn't be happy with a 50.1% vote, no - why would I be? I don't want to live in a country where half of my fellow Scots don't want to be living under the economic, political and social structure that we have, no - and if I was a Yes voter the thought that half of my country people were devastated at having their nationality stripped from them would sit really uneasy with me. Why would anyone be happy with that?

A narrow majority is a hollow victory.

I am likely to be desperately sad if it's a close result. I'm miserable already at what this is doing to us in terms of divisions among families former friendship groups and communities. I shall probably go to bed after polling with that bottle of good whisky that's looking at me from across the room and wake up at some point on Friday to face whatever the future holds. Whatever that may be I anticipate a lot of hard work but I'll hope to get over the hangover first.

Bumper stickers : UK is the official one, SCO is the unofficial that the EU tolerate
but what happens if Scots vote to go it alone and are arrested on holiday in Italy / France / Spain / Germany / Belgium / Germany for having illegal number plates ....?

What will the Scottish car number plate system become?
What will be the car tax situation for international mileage and insurance?
Will EHICS be needed?
What will happen while Scotland is still negotiating : if the Spanish, French, Italians play hard ball and say EHICs are invalid if you are from a secessionist country?

Galbraith I think there will be much the same now if it's a 'no' to be honest. Scotland's vocal 'Yes' are going to want DEVOMAXPLUS and rUK are not going to just hand it over on a platter (I hope!), there will need to be a lot of negotiating to get a fair deal for every member of the UK and tbh neither Scotland or rUK have the right people in power for those negotiations.

Oh for heaven's sake Talkin - you know this Govt isn't about details. They are visionaries, dontcha know. Or something.

SirChenjin
My dear cousin campaigned for Obama until nearly her dying day. She saw the result. She saw him say "yes we can". She died three weeks later.
A BIG part of me is glad that she cannot see the disappointment of reality hitting.

Alec Salmond has set the stakes even higher for Scotland. It has farther to fall. But he's old enough that he'll retire and take his platinum plated politicians pension and do a Bliar. The shit will hit the fan for the youngsters who believe in his "vision"

So very true TalkinPeace. Hell have his pension, write his memoirs about his heroic quest to free Scotland. The rest of us will be left to pick up the pieces.

I won't be able to go to bed. I'll stay up for the results.

Tried to buy some wine this evening in readiness but the girl in shop didn't believe I was over 25. I conducted my very own indyref poll and discovered I was 52% 'oh how flattering' and 48% 'gimme the wine godammit'.

Am I being over simplistic to assume that most of the current "undecideds" are more likely to vote No? My thought process is that if you are unsure about Independence, you are likely to go with the status quo.

Interestingly (and very unscientifically) while the polls have it extremely close, the bookmakers are showing the No vote clearly in the lead. This extract from the Racing Post:

"THE polls make it too close to call but bookmakers say the weight of money piling in from big-hitting punters tells them Scotland will vote against independence on Thursday in a referendum that has potentially huge implications for the future of Scottish racing.

The odds on a 'yes' vote on Wednesday night drifted out to a top-priced 7-2 in the belief that the bulk of those still undecided will plump to remain in the Union.

Alex Donohue, spokesman for Ladbrokes, which estimates £40 million has been wagered on the contest, said: "The disparity between the polls and the market is down to more money being staked on 'no' and the fact a lot of the undecided voters cannot be reached by polling. We think those people are more likely to stick to the status quo."

All the biggest bets struck have been for 'no', with a London-based William Hill punter on Wednesday topping up his bet, originally struck in June, to £900,000, which would return a £193,333 profit if successful.

A 'no' vote was at 7.45pm on Wednesday a best-priced 1-4 shot with Betfred."

OH is beyond excitement. He is working at Ingliston this week, all though the night Thursday until Friday morning which is HQ central for vote counting and final announcement. He is one of the few within "Access all areas" pass and is wearing it around the house this evening.

Squoosh I used to get really annoyed by that, these days I'd kiss someones feet Bugger about the wine though, hope you got it elsewhere! (PS some cracking posts earlier on today )