Indyref 12 - keeping the ball rolling

[flippinada]

Hope everyone doesn't mind, I'm to keep the discussion going. As you were folks :)

Evening all!

I think there's a tremendous amount going on in Glasgow. I drove past the new college site today, and there's a fairly high building being put up on the corner of.... gosh what street is it. One behind Buchanan, opposite the new part of Buchanan Galleries.

Mindreader we just don't know for sure, there are so many different factors and of course they must be 100% correct. If you google, you can find the pdf of the counting regulations.

If stakeholders, such as the media, are seeking to plan and schedule events modelling might start with a benchmark of a recent Parliamentary election, such as the 2010 UK Parliamentary elections, where the final Scottish declarations were made around 6:30am, or the 2011 Scottish Parliamentary elections when they were around 7:30am.

Yes, we will know which areas have voted what. I am not sure about postal votes.

thank fuck for the daily mash

Does anyone know anything about the letter from 13 Scottish academics and economists to the Daily Record today- apparently ripping Salmond's financial plans to shreds?

I've seen references to it in a couple of financial articles - but I can't get the Daily Record site to work for me. The page opens and then everything disappears and bloody advert pops up then I'm left with a blank screen.

Does anyone know anything about this letter - has it been publicised in Scotland - I really would like to read the contents but I can't get on the site.

Can anyone help?

The fact that is coming from sources is interesting to me. So this is criticism of Salmond's economics from inside Scotland?

www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/independence-referendum-top-economists-spell-4260951

I've seen something which suggests they're expecting Aberdeen to be the last to declare at around 6am. It will depend how close it is - if as expected it's tight we won't know the results until the last count.

flippinada, OneNight, hambo I'm a slow poster, sorry!

Most recently it a group of young guys was loudly talking about how stupid Yes voters are when they clocked the badge (I was mostly annoyed I couldn't concentrate on my book over their shouting to be honest ). The worst, I suppose, was almost being shoved after a man tried to put a No sticker on me and I tried to walk away. It was a little bit scary, but DP was there and it was at a stall so I didn't feel too threatened, plus my ninja-style dodging skills helped. :)
The comments have been mainly "shove it [your leaflet] up your arse" when asking if people would like one and being called an idiot in every colourful, profane way you can imagine. Oddly, the majority of it has happened when I've not been campaigning.

It is (hopefully) a minority acting that way though. I've politely declined BT leaflets in the past, and many people do the same with Yes ones.

Well it's lovely that glasgow has a new building.

I'm told that Scotland's oil and gas is worth we over £1 trillion. Scotland has 25% of the EUs offshore wind and tidal potential.

There are other industries.

I wish we knew more about what the future would look like - I am also sick with nerves- but Westminster will not allow any pre- negotiation which would perhaps have been more sensible.

BOF

try this fontella

I'm sorry you were put through that Numanoid. That's completely unacceptable from anyone.

I think pre negotiation would have been very difficult to do practically. I wish we knew more, but given that the negotiations in the event of a Yes vote will probably take years, how much will that cost? how much would be waster if we then voted No?

Ok I've found it.

My apologies if this has already been discussed - the threads move so fast but for anyone like me who was unaware/hadn't seen this

here's the letter:

1. The Scottish Government’s currency plans are unclear at best and fundamentally flawed at worst. They all seem to involve a form of fixed exchange rate which would not facilitate the necessary adjustments needed to address an independent Scotland’s competitiveness. Such plans are, therefore, doomed to failure. Plan B to use sterling informally would be disastrous because Scottish-based bank deposits would lose the protection provided by the Bank of England and the UK Government in the event of a run on our banks.

2. As the Governor of the Bank of England has recently stated, the sterlingisation option would require Scotland to accumulate substantial currency reserves. This would involve government spending cuts or tax increases equivalent, at the very least, to £4000 per head of the Scottish population.

3. In the event of Plans A and B not happening, an independent Scotland would have to create its own currency. This would be introduced at a time when the economy would most likely have suffered from capital flight.
   As the Deutsche Bank and other banks have recently said, the subsequent economic recession would lead to the possibility of an economic depression for many years to come.

4. The creation of an economic (and possibly physical) border between Scotland and the rest of the UK would be damaging for trade and jobs and, by diminishing the productivity of Scottish firms, would lower living standards in this country.

5. On current trends,the Scottish Government would have to impose an even greater fiscal austerity than has been implemented by the Coalition Government in Westminster. This would be further exacerbated by the inherited debt of around £120billion.

6. It is also likely, in the event of an independent Scotland reneging on accepting an appropriate share of the UK’s existing debt, that its credit rating would plummet and borrowing from international credit markets would become difficult and costly, if indeed we could borrow at all.
   As a result, we may have to borrow from the IMF, which would mean even more austerity for our people. Such austerity is likely to impact most heavily on the less well-off in our country.

7. The set-up costs for Scotland becoming independent, which on some estimates have been put at £2.5billion, would mean resources would have to be shifted from other hard-pressed areas of public spending such as health and education in the short and long term.

8. Scotland’s public finances would be more exposed to oil price volatility and the secular decline of oil revenues, with little or no prospect for an oil stabilisation fund.

9. Interest rates could well rise on Scottish sovereign debt, local authority borrowing, firm and household debt. Families will be impacted severely by rising credit card rates, car loans rates and mortgage rates.

10. It is possible, as some supermarkets have announced, that food prices could rise. The introduction of an economic border will increase distribution costs in an independent Scotland, raising prices of food and other consumer goods.

11. The recent announcement by Scottish financial institutions such as the Royal Bank of Scotland, Bank of Scotland and Standard Life, that in the event of independence they are likely to move their HQs from Scotland to the rest of the UK, will mean job losses and loss of tax revenue to the Scottish economy. This would also damage Scotland’s balance of payments.

12. Overseas banks such as Credit Suisse have also warned of dire economic consequences and a recession similar to that which followed the collapse of Royal Bank of Scotland and Bank of Scotland.

13. Demographic trends, notably the ageing population, suggest that spending on those of pensionable age would present a significant challenge for an independent Scotland.

The open letter was signed by Simon Clark (Edinburgh University), Rod Cross (Strathclyde University), Roger Sandilands (Strathclyde University), David Cobham (Heriot-Watt University), Joe Byrne (Heriot-Watt University), Rodolphe Desbordes (Strathclyde University), Christian Ewald (Glasgow University), Julia Darby (Strathclyde University), John Struthers (University of West of Scotland), Tatiana Kirsanova (Glasgow University), Farhad Noorbakhsh (former head of Adam Smith Business School), Ronald MacDonald (Glasgow University) and Celine Azemar (Glasgow University).

For some reason sc's link is crashing my iPad. Here is a bit of it.

A BAKER’S dozen of top economists have listed 13 reasons why the people of Scotland will be worse off if there is a Yes vote.

Academics from universities across the country joined forces to spell out why they believe independence would be a “big mistake”.

The 13 experts include the heads of economics at Edinburgh and Glasgow universities.

They warn a Yes vote would require more austerity and harsher cuts than those planned by the Westminster government – a threat that would see the poor bear the brunt.

In a joint letter issued to the Daily Record, the economists say: “Our main contention is that Scotland is unlikely to be richer and fairer if there is a Yes vote in the referendum.

“The irony is that within the Union, Scotland has a higher level of income per person than the UK.”

The academics add: “When we add up these 13 reasons not to vote for independence, we are extremely concerned that to do otherwise would be to gamble with the economic prospects of the present generation.

“As experienced and respected economists, we would urge you to vote No on September 18.”

That is totally unacceptable Numanoid - as I mentioned, my mum had death threats, I've been yelled at...we're on the no side.

X. Post

Thanks Stat

TheBogQueen

Scotland's oil and gas may well be worth that if it's extractable (which is another question entirely.) I don't have access to figures right now.

Surely any sScotland would only receive the taxes on that though and not the notional gross worth. What would those be worth?

BOF thanks for the link. Light relief much appreciated!

Quoting the full value of the oil rather than the revenues is one of Salmond's favourite tricks. He's been pulled up for it several times.

thank fuck for the daily mash

Here here

OMG Tears of Laughter reading the Mash article!

Genius.

Thanks so much .. a bit of light relief in all this.

x

Numanoid what a nasty bunch. I'm really sorry that happened to you, there's no excuse for it. I know it happens on both sides; one of my friends who is a yes supporter has a sign outside her house which has been vandalised.

Well no doubt they are all wrong too. They are academics rather than vested interest financiers and they are in Scottish academe not Oxbridge but they will still be wrong and scare mongering.

Another vote for the Daily Mash link. Much appreciated :)

As someone who's from a poor region of England (Cornwall), I feel like Scotland has had a lot of investment and there are more infrastructure projects going on there than in rural regions of EWNI where they are more desperately needed.

Also, there are higher levels of poverty in both real and percentage terms in London compared to Scotland (although I'm not sure that's a fair comparison to make).

I think it's easy to be jealous of other regions of the UK, but a lot of the UK is jealous of Scotland's deal!