Indyref 9

[IrnBruTheNoo]

...

sorry x post. Yes, that is what I mean ie nothing coming from a political party. Paper-wise it is incredibly difficult to not have that bias isn't it, but I like the FT which gives a relatively balanced view. I read around six or seven papers to try and round it out - when I get the chance to

Agree with the Deutsche Bank statement. Shell also came out way back in March with the warning about a yes vote too.

Credit Suisse were similarly harsh recently if you prefer stuff from outside the campaigns. doc.research-and-analytics.csfb.com/docView?sourceid=em&document_id=x588990&serialid=51DN9qZmikqML3ydt0HHdpoI1%2b%2b%2f3n2gXPrNYAGOdu8%3d

Devonport does have the facilities actually. They have built nuclear subs there previously and have competed for business before against Glasgow - with the referendum there has been talk of recomissioning the yard. And as for whether people want them there or not, what does that have to do with the wider referendum debate? They've been built before and they will be built again as they also provide jobs in the area.

How dare you as well be so scathing of real concerns people have about their jobs. If you are the example of what the worst elements of the Yes campaign are, monumental selfishness because of some perceived slight in Westminster and putting a whole nation into turmoil as a result, then I really don't need to worry do I? No will have a landslide.

The only certainty if we vote Yes is that we will get gvts we choose, of whatever shade

What does that even mean? The UK currently always gets the governments it votes for. It doesn't seem to make many people very happy does it? Because all you've done is restated who the whole electorate are. Its important that we live in a democracy, but it doesn't mean that the whole electorate agree in any meaningful way.

If the polls are right about how close this is, whether we vote yes or no next week almost half of Scotland won't be living in the country they want to under the governance they want to never mind which political hue of the day are running it.

People (unless they are ardent one party state nationalists) don't tend to think about an election result being a success because the whole country got what it voted for - which is stating the blooming obvious.

You seem to have this idea that the Scots all (or even mostly) want one thing. This referendum campaign being on a knife edge just shows what a nonsense that is.

Nevermind either that you seem to completely ignore the fact that Scotland already has a government that it votes for specifically to take care of things which are local and specific to it.

People don't like politicians much. So they tend to think there should be less of them. But actually you're better represented when there are more of them, they wield less individual power. So I'll vote to keep the lot that argue for things I want at a UK level, and at a European level, as well as those at a Scottish and LG level thank you very much.

The bottom line is this referendum is about as close to true democracy as any of us will ever get - 80% of those eligible to vote, registered, with the highest turn out none of us could have imagined. If it's yes, it's the democratic choice of those engaged in this debate. If it's no, same applies.

Why the need to be quite so dismissive, scathing, insulting, hectoring & patronising about anyone who is engaged in this debate is frankly beyond me. And yet so much of what passes for debate on this subject falls into that description.

I never thought I'd see the day when so many people would be so engaged, involved, interested in and passionate about their future as this referendum has shown. Considering how turned off & disconnected the UK electorate have been in recent years, I think it's bloody amazing to see.

I'm applauding you from afar SpiritedWolf.

Even better than that Tension, 97% of those eligible to vote are registered.

Devonport may have built the subs before, but how much will it cost to "recommission" it, and where will rUk store the warheads? You really don't think the unwillingness of the local population to be blown to smithereens in the event of an accident is relevant?

How dare you be so scathing of the real concerns that people have, that they, their dc, their dgc may be totally obliterated in the event of an "accident", let alone a targetted attack? Whether that's Faslane or Falmouth...

Your right, it's 80% of the population, 97% of those eligible to vote. It's mind blowing to me. Absolutely mind blowing.

97% or 80%, both are impressive numbers! That people have become so engaged has been the real high point of this campaign.

Such an interesting time to live in Scotland.

rUK will likely either - have the US or France service the subs or negotiate with Scotland to leave them here until an alternative site is found... (or perhaps the replacement built elsewhere).

Whitepaper/SNP says we want to be part of NATO, we don't have to be a nuclear nation ourselves to join the club, but generally speaking those who join the club are co-operative about where the nuclear nations base their weapons.

Personally I favour unilateral disarmament of nuclear weapons but I understand why others, including the Labour Party support multilateral action on this.

And I'm voting No... just in case you thought all us unilateralists were voting yes.

It certainly is exciting times. We are living history! It is, to sound naff, people power in action and I hope it engages discussion south of the border. There's been too much voter apathy which has kind of led us to this position I guess, in part.

oldlady I don't know nearly enough about Trident to debate any further on it. My point had nothing to do with nuclear safety, nor did my comments originally to another poster. But seeing as you don't want to be part of the UK and don't want Trident on your doorstep, then the inevitable is that it is going to go to somewhere that does want the business and that somewhere is in England. There will be job losses that hurt the economy. And those discussions are happening now. But that shouldn't be a problem either because you don't want it anyway and you don't want to be part of the UK. The discussion on nuclear safety is not something that I will talk about as I think that is a totally separate topic to the referendum.

Night everyone, I suspect you'll have started a new thread by the time I catch up again. So thanks for the debate

One last thought for the night... I don't really fancy giving the full powers of a country to the current Scottish government who pretend they have so little power that they can't or won't stop the police from routinely carrying arms on the streets. It is not an operational matter. It's very political whether we have armed police or not, and our government ought to stop the police from just deciding to do it.

But that's the current administration all over. Plan A: Blame Westminster Plan B: Blame Local Authorities [after doubling the cut to their budget and stopping them raising funds] C: Blame Public Bodies [who are answerable to, and officials often appointed by the Scottish Gov] D: Find some way of blaming all of the above, or someone else, whatever you do, don't admit the devolved Scottish parliament has the power to do anything.

(Mind you... I'm slightly impressed that the SNP didn't use the formation of a Scottish National Police force to have police cars branded SNP, and of course black and yellow for visibility... )

I don't think this helps at all for either side :(

www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/violence-warning-ahead-of-orange-order-march-1-3539494

An organisation with sectarian violence undertones. Football fans planning counter protest. I hope there is no violence. This debate has bought out the worst as well as the best in people.

And the Orange Order are officially registered as supporters of a No vote...

Your points, livingzuid, may have nothing to do with the issue of nuclear safety. I live within the zone that says I, my dc, and my dgc will all suffer horrendous, life-ending injuries in the event that "something" happens at Faslane, whether that's an accident or a targetted attack. We won't enjoy the benefits of instant death, we'll get to linger for a few days with major burn injuries, before we die.

I have lived with that all of my life, and I'm in my 50's. In primary school, at the height of the Cuban crisis, we practiced hiding under our desks, in the event the siren meant the "three minute warning" rather than "call out the local fire brigade".

If any other area in rUk wants that shit on their doorstep, for the sake of about 500 jobs (directly connected) they're welcome to it.

But I doubt you'll find many.

spirited wolf I absolutely agree.

Although i would add that If there is a yes vote, it sure as heck won't feel like democracy when half the country are dragged kicking into an independence they just don't want. It is one thing for a democratic election for a 4 year term. But to change a status quo forever which has allowed us to live in a largely peaceful, prosperous, secure nation?
That is bonkers.

rooner, this is true. It's an astonishing amount of people that registered to vote. There's a huge difference between not voting because you don't relate to any party and wanting a say in the permanent future of your country.

No, Rooners, whatever the outcome, this is exactly what democracy looks like. More than any other vote any of us will have cast before, Yes or no, it'll be the democratic choice of everyone who votes that wins through. Anything other than that ain't democracy. And that's what makes this such a massive, historical, spine-tingling event IMO.

Yes or no, it'll be the democratic choice of everyone who votes that wins through.

And that I think is my problem because it will not be the choice of more or less the whole country. Yes or No there will be half of the country who are in disagreement. The difference with voting No is that such a vote is not definitive in the long term and the nationalists will more than likely just pick themselves up dust off and start again. A vote for Yes is irrevocable and I fail to see how even with the best breaks a country could go into such a massive change with half of its population disaffected.

I think that whatever the merits of the various arguments, now is not the time and this is not the way. If you're going to start something new surely it's best to start it with a whole heart and in possession of the full facts. Any new Scotland would have neither.

Off the back of one nights post I have a question for yes voters

If it is a yes, and the polls all suggest any victory will be by a small margin, do you genuinely believe that the country as it stands today, given such a strong opposition of independence from let's say for augments sake 45-9% of the adult population, is a solid and strong foundation from which to build a country?

This is what gets me about the whole thing, yes is irreversible but to make such a life changing decision surely must need the backing of most of the population

It's how shakey the majority in favour would be too. Say 50%+1 person vote yes. But 10% only voted yes because they believed the (don't spook the horses) prospectus in the White Paper things like we'd be in a currency union with rUK sharing the Bank of England as our central bank and in the EU.

Unfortunately to be members of the EU we need to have our own central bank. And the rest depends on very successful negotiations. The White Paper isn't really achievable or realistic. I do wonder whether the real plan was to have Westminster reject the currency union so that the Scottish government could take us into the Euro with 'it's Westminster's fault, not our first choice' as they know people won't vote for the Euro.

You could end up with more than half the population deeply unhappy with the actual settlement and country we end up with. If they win, they will have done so by promising different people different things, they can't all get what they want.

One last thought for the night... I don't really fancy giving the full powers of a country to the current Scottish government who pretend they have so little power that they can't or won't stop the police from routinely carrying arms on the streets. It is not an operational matter. It's very political whether we have armed police or not, and our government ought to stop the police from just deciding to do it.

Yes . I've raised this several times. Not once has any yes supporter commented.

No it's not. I'm a Scot living in England. I'm against independence but if I thought there was a wave of excitement behind it and polls showed a strong majority in favour, I'd shut up. The outcome feels like it will be decided on a flip of a coin. A very inauspicious beginning for a new nation.
Incidentally I keep reading posts asking people to read the Wee Blue Book to get the 'facts' . Was this inspired by Gaddafi's Green Book outlining his ideology which everyone in Libya had to read? Just wondering.

it sure as heck won't feel like democracy when half the country are dragged kicking into an independence they just don't want.

The was a piece in the guardian that discussed if just over half voting Yes would meet the threshold of "decisive" which was what both side agreed to uphod and respect.

Nine legal questions for Scotland

I think it is a valid question. A deeply divided country, with half in disagreement with an exit is not exactly the strongest start point, given the unified resilience often required to move to indepdendence.

However I think it might have made more sense to overtly state a minimum threshold in percentage terms from the onset. Becuase if a smidge over 50% weas later deemed to be legally below the agreed to terms, while those voting yes believed all they had to achieve was 50% plus one vote... I think there would rucktions on a significant scale.

Which will be on Salmond as much as it is on the gov if push comes to shove. Both sides signed, both sides should have considered the potential need for clarity in terms of what defines a decisive win for independence, both sides should have overtly underlined to those voting what was valid cause for celebration/commiseration.

And honest to god I have zero comprehension as to why they didn't hammer out a clear finish line for Yes from the word go considering the potential backlash in the case of a percived win being nullified on the basis of the wording of the agreement.

I complain about Italian beurocracy on a daily basis. But there is something to be said for dotting the i(s) and crossing the t(s) when not doing carries the risk of half a population feeling duped and/or robbed.

Just in case a anyone has forgotten

1. Currency union is a union - both sides need to agree to be in it. currently Wm is saying rUK wont. So AS can stamp and wail all he likes. If they say no - well tough. And accordingly he has played his two top cards away already. The public statement is trident will go and that the debt wont be paid. What has he got that rUK want enough to get into a currency union?
2. CU will demonstrably reduce fiscal autonomy below current levels undo devolution. You will be less free.
3. Sterlingisation requires very large reserves and is incompatible with EU membership

4 EU membership requires application. As has been repeatedly said EU membership is not guaranteed and at the mercy of the other members

1. rUK will then become a large competitor with WM focussing solely on what benefits them - good luck negotiating with that block
2. Scotland already has the ability to increase income tax by upto 3p in the pound. When AS and so forth talk about being starved of money and their being foodbanks - why hasnt he used this existant power? Is it easier to blame WM than raise the money?
3. NHS is completely devolved. Any privatisation ongoing is down to Holyrood policy not rUK policy.

Billions of pounds are already moving from Banks at risk of some of the more strident lunacy. Large financial services companies - worth more to the Scottish economy than oil are all re-domiciling to stem the flow out of their businesses. The largest taxpayers (RBS is 4th) are moving their official home to England to avoid this lunacy. That is tax revenue fleeing. IN the event of independence - the tax base from these companies will dwindle further while AS and co whine and complain about being stitched up on currency and EU membership. None of which are or have ever been within their gift.

Talk of blockade of fishing waters, of preventing capital movements, of refusing to pay sovereign debt, of boasting of a day of reckoning with the banks and BP is doing irreparable harm to the economy now. Not just from the vote or from iDay.

I could rehearse the arguments time and again - but they will fall on stony ground. The die hard yes dont believe it, even as it happens in front of their own eyes. Instead it is called scaremongering or bullying. I have seen people on these threads the real loss of jobs and the real movement of work south as "worth it".

All that seems left to the Yes - is wrapping the flag of rampant nationalism around themselves and griping about a democratic deficit which is based on the spoon fed fibs from a party that bases its entire cause of existing on moaning about their neighbour. Scotland is part of a union and all countries in that union have representation broadly on their population. You are not governed by an evil remote empire - but part of a democracy. You personally don't always get the government you want. The same argument applies to Holyrood. Do the shetlands feel particularly represented by the central belt elite? Nope. How about the borders? Doubt it there too. So AS is not just breaking up the most successful political and economic union in history (you might argue about the US but it hasn't been that long for them) but also embarking on a process of balkanisation and festering nationalistic hatred of neighbours and friends. Why? for his vainglorious attempt to be in the history books.

Yes has lied and manipulated and deceived vast swathes of the population and it has been eagerly swallowed - like all nationalist movements it appeals to the lowest common denominator and hang the cost to jobs, to people, to families.

You have made Scotland poorer in every sense of the world. Well done. Thank you.