Indyref8

[grovel]

ItsAllGoingToBeFine, but who will be Prime Minister? Pretty unsatisfactory changing halfway through. My suggestion was that maybe Cameron, Clegg, Miliband et al agree on a team and step back themselves. It would make the end result a joint enterprise and could prevent years of feuding in rUK.

Why has Cameron travelled all the way to Scotland to speak to a select group of bankers? Why isn't he out on the streets talking to the people?

I am not sure you really understand compound interest, weatherall. But a rise of that level would put many, many people out on the streets (either rioting, or because they will have nowhere to live, or both). UK interest rates are forecast to grow, slowly over the next 2-3 years to 2%. Anything above that will cause genuine, deep hardship.

Think about it. I can pay my mortgage now. It goes up slowly, I adjust to compensate. It goes up overnight (remember when we came out of the ERM?) property prices go down and I am plunged into negative equity. I panic and put my house on the market, sure that prices will sink further and keen to get out what I can. So does everyone else. People are forced to default on mortgages. House prices sink further and mortgage costs go up as interest rates continue to rise to cover all the banks who now have empty properties they own which they can't sell and which are now worth less than the debt now owned by the bank.

My family is homeless. My salary is worth much, much less and so I struggle to pay for food (already expensive). Look at the situation in Spain, Greece etc. At least, when they are homeless, it is not pissing with rain on the streets. (As an aside, my Mum has a homeless man who she accommodates in her conservatory, whenever he wants. He is Scottish but "too cold to be homeless up there").

ItsAllGoingToBeFine - I agree - I would have voted for DevoMax over Independence, but as Cameron refused to have it on the ballot, Independence it is for me.

If they genuinely guaranteed DevoMax now, (although I can't see how they possible could now) then I would accept that.

Re: the EU.

The reason BT have stopped focussing on this in their campaign is because they have cottoned on to the EU not being as popular in Scotland as previously assumed.

That has been probably the biggest surprise to me during this campaign.

From my experience of campaigning most people on the doorstep would be happy for us to leave.

I won't be around for this lunchtime's web debate unfortunately. Can anyone who shares the same concerns raise the following issues on my behalf.

Jobs: Can the participants give their views on the impact of separation on the 1,000,000 Scottish Jobs dependent on English-based companies and the prospects for (young) Scots looking to take up opportunites in England, as c.800,000 of their countrymen & women have done over recent generations.

Immigration/Border Controls: The SNP Whitepaper requires substantially increased immigration to make its economic forecasts add up, while the UK is pursuing a much more restrictive policy. Given the current terrorist threat - and the fact that some migrants may see Scotland as a stepping-stone to the South - can the panelists assure us there will be no border controls post a 'Yes' vote?

Thanks, AB

It hasn't been agreed that Scotland would be a successor state because the negotiations haven't happened yet. Scotland has every right to be constituted as a continuing state. If there's something I've missed can you link to it please?

My mortgage is with Santander, and like everyone else who already has a mortgage in Scotland, I already have a contract, and it's tied into the BoE baseline. Nothing that happens in respect of international borrowing rates for Scotland is going to have any effect on that.

However, the money markets will not penalise Scotland because if it is a successor state it will have no debt and be running a surplus, even if Scotland does borrow at a slightly higher interest rate to begin with, the country will be running a surplus so it will in all likelihood be absorbed.

Far MORE WORRYING is the situation for the rUK, which will be running an annual deficit which will have gone from 4% up to 7%, and has a housing bubble which is comparable with Spain. It's the rUK that's the economic risk, and losing the security of North Sea oil backing up the pound is why the money markets are twitchy (thought the fall in RBS shares is perfectly within the median range over the past 12 months)

I really hope that someone can back with some answers to my big questions on the UK economy -which I'd say are far more pressing than any questions about how Scotland might operate. The UK exports less than it imports and has a massive asset bubble in London property - that's exceedingly more likely to crash and in doing so, ruin the entire UK. Isn't that a bit more worrying than an extra couple of percent on borrowing for new mortgage holders, in a country where the value of houses hasn't gone up in real terms since 2007?

We need answers about the UK, whether independent or not, we ALL need answers about the UK...

Rose- you are not making sense- you say a 1% rise would put people on the streets.

But then in the same breath day that the UK will put up interest rates by 2% soon.

So which is it?

I'm quite sure many Scots would love to have Devo Max, since it seems to offer the chance of further reckless spending with the deficit picked up by someone else ... unfortunately for them I really can't see MPs allowing this as it may well be electoral suicide

I don't blame Scots in the least for looking ou mainly for themselves, but hope they won't whine if, in the event of independence, the remaining UK does the same

Issy your posts are great!

Keep them coming!

I would genuinely be utterly shocked if something fairly significant did not come -whether called devo max or not. Yes the parties have different proposals and because of purdah they can't go as far as hammering out the legislation before hand -which they should have done but hey!

All three leaders have been so public about this that to pull out on it would be political suicide. Remember the timelines -draft legislation by January I think. That's before the general election. No party is going to risk being the one to pull back from this. Folk quote the nick clegg example but ime the situation is different as with all agreeing there is no coalition issue. Also -have you seen what u -turning on tuition fees has done to his approval ratings? Guys political career is dead in the water once the coalition ends.

That's just my opinion, but they've been so big on it that I think if we voted no and they then pulled back there would be outright riots in Scotland -and probably in parts of England too.

"Why has Cameron travelled all the way to Scotland to speak to a select group of bankers? Why isn't he out on the streets talking to the people?"

Exactly. This just speaks volumes really. Emotional plea to the people of Scotland to stay..ha!

mamma that's an interesting post, thanks.

Ck he's scared our positivity about yes will rub off on him!

issy what were your questions re UK again?

Sorry I'm on my phone and can't find them easily. Can you post them in a short post? Not saying I can answer them!

Exactly Stats (trying not to type 'I agree with Stats' too much )

It wouldn't be political suicide though.

That is the point of all of this!

Scottish votes won't swing the 2015 UK ge, which is what DC, EM and nc care about.

blimey, moving fast this thread

WhatWouldFreddieDo:

I had labour party canvassers at my door yesterday and he said and I quote 'a vote no is a vote for devo max'.

I pressed him on this and said that wasn't on the ballot. I gave him the opportunity to correct himself and tell the truth and he said 'but if you vote no, you'll get devo max'.

Barefaced lies. I'm disgusted. Imagine if you trusted a representative of political party to tell the truth... It's undemocratic and it's shocking that they can get away with that because it isn't coming personally out of David Cameron's mouth.

There is no devo max option, but that is what Labour canvassers for Better Together are saying on the doorstep. They might be getting out there but they're trying to subvert the democratic process. That is despicable.

I watched Bernard grill Alistair last night, and I could tell he was squirming when being interviewed by Bernard. The panic has well and truly set in!

And if Devo Max is now being promised, why not have it on the ballot paper to begin with??? Three options would have saved much panic from the No side today. WM obviously assumed Scots were too scared to vote Yes. That one back fired as the Yes momentum keeps going...

And since they are all doing it who can we protest vote for?

Devo max is a false promise now just as it was in 1979.

The political danger is not from losing votes in Scotland, but of the Scots going for another referendum.

Which we would if WM didn't stick to what they are saying now re. DevoMax

but hope they won't whine if, in the event of independence, the remaining UK does the same

Exactly!

And they are finally waking up to the potential damage that independence could inflict on rUK - at least, if you take what Major was saying this morning at face-value.

ooh, thanks AnnieHoo... i'll search back and find them...

I absolutely agree that DevoMax should have been on the ballot paper.

But at the time WM dismissed the very possibility of their being a yes vote.

So they were wrong, or badly advised, and now we're all being forced into this No/Yes divide, which as I said hundreds of posts above, is a very unBritish position to be in, with no chance of being 'reasonable' or compromising.