Indyref 6

[StatisticallyChallenged]

Welcome to indyref 6

Spidergirl8 asked close to end of last thread:

What impact would independence have on fiscal policy and economic stability
What impact would the ageing population have on the future
Is the predicted future a positive one, based on fact

If the bite goes no, what has actually been achieved? Does that not just put Scotland on the back foot?

Let's try and give not too biased answers please!

In Quebec the pro indy side was I think 6% ahead in polls just before the vote, but still lost.

I'd like to see more polls, but even when No have been significantly ahead I've never felt comfortable about the sample size, although I know they go into the methodology in great detail.

Although when the poll showing the No lead slipping to 6 points came out there were a lot more people volunteering, coming in for posters and badges etc.

Obviously I'm not thrilled about the numbers though.

Whichever way it goes, 49% of the voters are going to be very unhappy.

I strongly hope it's NO, but I would far rather 80% Yes than 51%. It's too small a majority to decide the fate of a great nation.

That the mumsnet survey?

No. YouGov.

OOAOML it might well motivate no voters to get out to the ballot.

Another thing to bear in mind is the negotiations would not just be between Holyrood and Westminster, in FS terms there are a whole heap of overseas financial regulators to consider. Not sure what the situation would be for other industries, but I imagine it would all get pretty complex and I'm not convinced 18 months with a UK general election in the mix is achievable as a timescale.

Not sure they will want to report Mumsnet opinion

OOAOML I bet you'll be glad to have a rest (from campaigning) after the referendum, sounds like you've been busy!
I'm looking forward to not having to do poster/badge runs, and having to carry spares everywhere.

Last few comparable YouGov polls...

The second (I think) Quebec referendum came in at only 51% against.

I think most sensible people would rather not win by a small majority.

I think it would probably be better to lose by a small majority

it might well motivate no voters to get out to the ballot.

We can only hope.

There are still too many quiet people around, those with no stickers/posters (as in none at all, not 'no thanks) vastly outnumber 'yes'. The 'yes' seem more than happy to show it, I believe the quiet one are 'no'.

So I still have hope and I believe in a 'silent majority' for NO

I'm still predicting 60/40 to yes.

I think the "out of sync" previous Yes poll was a Panelbase one. There is also an Ipsos Mori one that has never been published

YouGov are generally perceived as weighting the No voters quite highly (something to do with weighting according to previous Westminster voting patterns ) so if if they're saying Yes is ahead, that is quite significant.

yes, I think it actually WILL motivate 'no' voters more to go and vote

I agree Frankie. I know a lot of people who are keeping very quiet. Me included.

I apologise for sounding naive, but why so many saying they hope it's no and would move etc? Does the future under a yes result look so bleak? As a reminder I am currently undecided, so I am genuinely interested to try and find out reasoning behind this opinion.

I walk past a flat that recently put up Yes posters in every window. A few days later the flat opposite had put up an equal number of Maybe posters. Made me smile.

I do think the No supporters keep it more quiet.

deeedeee should I cast my no vote then for the sake of the nation?

I posted (long,long ago!) that as I have a strong chance of moving outwith Scotland in a few years I was planning to abstain - just to give you my backstory!

I really don't know. I think Yes will just squeak the win.

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YouGov have confirmed results

yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/06/latest-scottish-referendum-poll-yes-lead/

No data tables yet.

Fanny it wouldn't shock me to be honest.

I apologise for sounding naive, but why so many saying they hope it's no and would move etc? Does the future under a yes result look so bleak?

My DH's job will move to London and we will go too. He works in banking and there would be no jobs at his level in Scotland (initially), due to the EU regulations and so on.

Aside from my personal circumstances, I do believe there will be several years of hardship while independent Scotland gets up and running.

I think YouGov said they'd changed their methodology a couple of polls ago. I'd be interested to see a comparison of how the polls are done (after the referendum, when I have time to take it in) as I'm really not sure how they factor in a large turnout and those who don't normally vote. YouGov are online, does anyone poll door to door (polling companies, not campaigns obviously)?

Spidergirl those that are saying they would have to move are saying so because their jobs would move. They'd have no choice. I include myself in that as a financial services professional in the same industry as statistically married to an IT professional who has been involved in the plans for moving his company's jobs.