Indyref 6

[StatisticallyChallenged]

Welcome to indyref 6

Spidergirl8 asked close to end of last thread:

What impact would independence have on fiscal policy and economic stability
What impact would the ageing population have on the future
Is the predicted future a positive one, based on fact

If the bite goes no, what has actually been achieved? Does that not just put Scotland on the back foot?

Let's try and give not too biased answers please!

Phaedra
I am worried sick what this is doing to our wonderful country.

Together we have come through some horrible times and stood against some terrible enemies. The world couldn't beat us, but now we are tearing ourselves apart from inside. The pain will go on long, long after the 18th.

deeedeee,
Just read the threads. You know it's all there.

Not sure if anyone has linked to this book, which I believe was commissioned by Tom Hunter here

spidergirl8 it might be worth a look as it seems less biased than anything from either the yes or no camps.

Statistically- thanks for fishing out the pyramids.

I do think though that you could interpret them as a reason for independence as it show scotland needs immigration and child friendly policies to meet our specific needs.

Sallying- the thing is there are parts of Scotland that haven't 'come though' the hard times. Places where so many list their jobs in the 80s and have never recovered.

Is 30 years not long enough to wait for WM to do something about that?

Sallying- don't present opinion as fact. SL said they'd move after devolution, that was a fake threat then, why should we believe them now?

Shipyards can build other ships than war ships.

Thanks tricky and deeded for the Hunter text, will read it

weatherall
Just wait and see - it won't be long now, and what you and I say in the meantime will not make a jot of difference.

Re devolved NHS in Scotland. Yes the SG get a block grant and it's in their power to spend what proportion they decide on the NHS.

Nothing will change in the NHS in Scotland after independence. Apart from the budget, which will shrink, massively.

Ah, didn't realise it has already been linked.

Weatherall - surely all those people in the 80s should have just retrained. Isn't that what all those in Scotland set to lose their jobs through independence are meant to do?

It could be interpreted that way weatherall - I was only explaining the dangers of it in general.

deeedeee to be fair to Sallyingforth, the majority of the companies are not making statements - why would they choose to wind up any part of their client base if they don't have to!! From talking to people in various companies they're basically not willing to commit publicly if they don't have to and are telling staff that. But they're also saying different things internally about likely movements.

opinion alert
Banks and insurance companies have increasingly stringent rules regarding issues like capital. They need to hold enough money to ensure that they can meet their liabilities under a variety of scenarios - stress testing basically. They look at things like equity risk, mass lapse (loads of customers leaving), catastrophe (natural disaster etc), currency risk...loads of others. The numbers involved in these calculations are massive, truly enormous. Volatility tends to cause the amount they need to hold to increase. Volatility, for them, is bad. Unless the separation negotiations are handled very well (not exactly looking likely!) then they would probably consider moving at least part of their operations to reduce the impact. That's before you get in to all the other regs which are floating around.

Some are also doing research on customer views and finding increasing negativity from those in rUK towards Scottish financial companies if we went independent - i.e. (probably partly because of the Iceland situation and what is being shouted about the £!) there are people who would prefer not to have their money in a company based in Scotland. It's probably largely illogical. But people are sometimes illogical, and because of the relative size of Scotland to rUK, it wouldn't have to be a huge proportion feeling that way to make it worth moving to appease them.

My best guess is that the big banks will split and create separate Scottish subs and move the head offices at least of the main company to rUK somewhere. What the insurance companies do depends massively on currency, but I wouldn't be surprised if they did something similar.

"...we are tearing ourselves apart from inside. The pain will go on long, long after the 18th."

Please don't be so melodramatic.

A relative of mine has been told that his job in the finance sector in Glasgow will no longer be around on the 19th should it be a Yes majority in the referendum. Apparently this is what his boss has said to all in his team. I think this is to scare them into voting No.

Breaking news:

Tomorrows YouGov Poll (allegedly)
Yes 51% (+4)
No 49% (-4)
(Excluding DK)

I have a concern for the NHS in the UK as a whole : as I understand it, as a country we are about to sign the TTIP Agreement with the USA and unless Westminster negotiates an exception for it (as the French have done for their film industry), then even though Scotland's NHS is devolved, as a region of the UK (which is how the US corporations would see us), it could be forced to follow the same privatization process as England.

Can someone reassure me that this is not the case?

ItsAll fingers crossed it really is the case on the 18th!

link to those poll results please?

Its too tight to make me believe it.

ItsAll fingers crossed it really is the case on the 18th!

Hopefully. :)

"I have a concern for the NHS in the UK as a whole : as I understand it, as a country we are about to sign the TTIP Agreement with the USA and unless Westminster negotiates an exception for it (as the French have done for their film industry), then even though Scotland's NHS is devolved, as a region of the UK (which is how the US corporations would see us), it could be forced to follow the same privatization process as England. "

prettybird Yy, Jeane Freeman covered this issue when talking on Daily Politics show yesterday to Andrew Neil. Scotland would be lumped in with the UK and would be included in the TTIP agreement.

Please don't be so melodramatic.

So you think this will all blow over very soon.
I would love to be wrong. We don't have to wait.

You think there won't be bitterness and acrimony? Look how bitter and acrimonious these threads get on both sides.

Without the poll you can already sense it's very very close almost an equal split.

Inc DKs
Yes 47 (+4)
No 46 (-3)
DK 7 (-1)