Indyref 6

[StatisticallyChallenged]

Welcome to indyref 6

Spidergirl8 asked close to end of last thread:

What impact would independence have on fiscal policy and economic stability
What impact would the ageing population have on the future
Is the predicted future a positive one, based on fact

If the bite goes no, what has actually been achieved? Does that not just put Scotland on the back foot?

Let's try and give not too biased answers please!

Also, recent TV programme mentioned that the richest 1% of the Scottish population pay 20% of the income tax revenue

That is a statistic conveniently overlooked by the "let's be like Norway " brigade.

Higher tax rate payers already are at those levels. It's the rest of the "ordinary tax payers" who will have to have an increase.

In 2010-11, 227,000 people in Scotland of 2.67 million paid tax at 40%. Less than 10% of tax payers. If the spend , spend, spend is to be achieved I hope you're willing to pay for it. There's a limit to what less than 10% can pay for.

Income tax is 30% of total tax. So if top earners are paying 20% of that it is actually only 6% of total tax.

Still doesn't explain " the be like Scandinavia model" which is so popular requiring more from basic rate tax payers. Are you all willing to pay up?

But that's far from all they are paying - its also only 20% income tax in Scotland, plus 16% NI. I pulled the GERS figures and translated to % for those who are interested in where our tax income comes from in Scotland at the moment

(I know, I'm boring)

In 2010-11, 227,000 people in Scotland of 2.67 million paid tax at 40%. Less than 10% of tax payers. If the spend , spend, spend is to be achieved I hope you're willing to pay for it. There's a limit to what less than 10% can pay for.

Yes, I would be willing to pay for it. It's part of what living in a socially just society is all about. However, (1) our tax take is already higher than that UK average if you take into account North Sea Oil revenues on a geographical basis and (2) an independent Scottish government could grow the Scottish economy in line with its needs and potential in a way which Westminster can't/won't. So I think that revenues would increase in any case without necessarily having to increase personal taxation. Small countries around Europe are performing better economically than their larger counterparts precisely because they can target appropriate support to their businesses and industries. There is no reason why Scotland couldn't do the same, and we have a very broad-based economy to work with, including 25% of European potential wind and tidal energy and 10% of potential wave energy.

David Cameron and Alistair Darling have both admitted that Scotland could be a successful independent country. I don't think it's down to the economics; it's down to a basic decision as to whether you think Scotland should be able to govern itself rather than being a peripheral concern of a much larger neighbour.

Last one - info re income tax distribution. I can't find this level of detail for Scotland and our splits are a bit different as we have fewer HRT payers as shown below.

Proportion paying each rate
Tax rates........ starter.........savings..... basic.........higher.........additional
Scotland...........0.6%...........1.5%........86.8%......10.6%...........0.5%
UK...................0.8% ..........2.0%........84.2%......11.9%...........0.8%

But this first picture shows how income tax liability breaks down (PAYE and SE) by income decile

The second one shows income tax contribution as a % of gross earnings for people at each decile

What's quite interesting is the progression over the last few years - the poorest families are gradually getting more back, and the wealthiest are gradually paying in more.

There are also figures for the share of total income tax for the bottom 50% of earners, and the top 50%.

Year................Bottom....Top
2009-10............11.2%...88.8%
2010-11............11.3%...88.7%
2011-12............10.6%...89.4%
2012-13............10.6%...89.4%
2013-14............ 9.7%....90.3%

Again, it looks like at least for income tax the better off are gradually shouldering more of the burden. It is gradual, but it's there.

I know income tax isn't the only issue for pressed working families. I wonder if the best option is a very gradually reduction in VAT with a corresponding increase in income tax to compensate as it does hit the poor hard.

Oh, it's worth noting the income decile figures as a 90th is not what you would probably expect i.e it is not enormous.

2013-14
10th £11990
25th £15300
50th £22300
75th £34500
90th £51300.

xposted with Sconequeen. I know you're not bothered by the economics and think it's a fundamental decision but there has been a fair bit of chat re income tax/tax sources and a lot of confusion so though some figures might help those who are sad like me like that kind of thing.

SC - the figures are interesting, thank you, and they provide useful baseline info/starting point for what we would need to look at in the event of a Yes vote.

From what I can see generally, our revenues and expenditure are in a healthier state than the UK's overall and compare very well on the international stage. But, crucially, I think they would improve greatly if we had complete power over the management of our economy.

However, as you say, for me it's also the wider principle of the people of Scotland making their own decisions.

Off to bed now - night, night!

I'd rather the tax I pay to be spent in Scotland, creating jobs, improving education and health, building housing and roads, paying for universal childcare than my taxes paying for Crossrail, MPs and their expenses, hs2, the Olympics, subsidising the HB bill in London, Trident, civil service jobs in London, illegal war in Iraq, an oversized armed forces, bailing out banks, bankers bonuses- I'm sick of subsidising all of this.

I'd like to see the 50% tax rate back but I don't think the basic rate should increase.

I have heard a few people say "I would be willing to pay more taxes if it means better public services in the long run" . Post independence, when there is no longer a council tax freeze and we go into recession due to the weakened Pound this is going to hit hard.

This morning in early trading:

RBS down 3.5%
Lloyds down 2.6%
Standard Life down 2.5%

This mornings Sun front page (NB not the Scottish Sun).

This is the reality. Sterling skids to a 10 month low today. British shares are down. The pound set to lag behind the Euro...

Be afraid, be very afraid!

Annie- if the pound decreases in value our exports will be more saleable abroad. The high pound is hurting exports now. Our 'recovery' is consumer led not export led, as a healthy recovery should be.

You keep saying we're "subsidising all this" but the numbers don't really back up your argument. We get back more than we put in, in cash terms, by a very significant amount - roughly £10.3 billion per year. If you prefer the percentages (which is a slightly poor argument but ok) then on average we have contributed a slightly higher % than we've got back. On a 5 year average is 0.29% of revenue difference. Last year, we contributed 9.1% and got back 9.3%. And our input is considerably more volatile than what we get back which we would need to address. Plus you need to address that our borrowing to fund the deficit would almost certainly be more expensive as we are predicted a lower credit rating than rUK.

Bailing out banks was necessary - you've got qualifications in economics, you must know what an utter disaster it would have been had the major retail banks been allowed to collapse. We don't pay bankers bonuses, their companies do. We have more than our fair share of public sector employees (21% in Scotland vs 18% in UK and just 16% in London).

Oh, and at the debate in Holyrood our MSPs failed to oppose the war in Iraq.

It's pointless extrapolating from current figures though. So many businesses will remove themselves from Scotland (they can't run the daily risk of the Scottie being down a hundred against the bitch and they won't want to find themselves headquartered in a non-EU country). Unemployment may well be a big problem for you in the short-term at the very least.

I see depressing naïveté on this thread.

You aren't really going to vote yes as a country.

What kind of society would an independent Scotland be? Do people really believe it would be fairer and more equal? I don't. Scotland's Parliament has already shown it is willing to treat certain favoured people differently. It has a PF Service which has dropped charges for corrupt employees acting fraudulently in its capital city, it has shown no interest in prosecuting public figures such as Robert Henderson and Nicolas Fairbairn for sex crimes. There are no doubt other examples.

The Yes supporters I ask on here either ignore this, or cannot come up with a reasonable explanation. It is clearly not important to them.

All you see is a barely concealed hardline communist rhetoric. People who work hard and are talented are to taxed so that they are equal with everyone else. Unless of course you are on the public gravy train. What is the point in working? If you speak out about problems with the Scottish state, can you expect to be beaten up outside your home on a quiet evening, with no chance of your attackers being prosecuted, or will you lose your job, or shipped off to the Scottish equivalent to the gulag? I don't think I would feel safe there. I've been horrified how badly and out of control some people have been behaving, and at the distortion of truth.

If it did go a bit like that, how would you stop it? Who would you complain to? What could you do if you were unfairly prosecuted and found guilty, or alternatively attacked by people who were not prosecuted? What would you do if your property rights were violated by the state?

An independent Scotland wouldn't be a signatory to the European Convention on Human Rights. The White Paper agrees with this. The WP says Scotland would have its own version (which seems to defeat the purpose) but this would lack a court and committee of the Council of Europe which currently enforce its judgments. Plus, some existing Scottish legislation would act as a barrier to signing up to the ECHR - discriminatory tuition fees for English students being one. I'm not sure how objectionable the lack of an independent parliamentary chamber, the tendency to move matters outwith the public courts to non-public tribunals and the lack of independence of the judiciary and PF Service would be.

I feel sorry for anyone with no choice to live there. But you can guarantee one thing - no matter how bad it got, the public line from the State would be that it was wonderful, better than any other country, issuing press releases about figures supposedly showing massive improvements, etc.. How awful.

We have been living through the worst recession since the 30s.

The UK has mismanaged our economy.

I trust the Scottish government to make better decisions. At least Alex Salmond was an economist. George Osborne studied history didn't he?

It's crazy to trust Gideon to run our finances- debt is increasing. Not that you'd know that when the right wing press and BBC make sure to keep it quiet.

Centralised police force, proposal to do away with the corroboration rule, no checks and balances when it comes to creating legislation- doesn't sound good to me

How will Scotland decrease the debt weatherall?

Be afraid, be very afraid!

Let me correct that...

Be angry, be very, very angry!.

Anyone in Scotland who expects any favours from the UK after this, is going to be very disappointed.

Weatherall - You are the UK.

One thing that stuck me from the table Statistically linked showing where tax take comes from, is that greater tax take would likely be linked to property, as the Scottish Parliament and left wing have a record of attacking and disliking private ownership of property and its associated rights.

It would make sense for a Scottish state, faced with depopulation and people trying to get out and/or follow the companies moving out, to levy capital gains tax on sales of private homes to a prohibitive degree, and to to introduce stamp duty in addition, on the registration of private homes to a high level.

I could also see it introducing a Wealth Tax, like Norway - a tax on the overall wealth of a person levied annually, on wealth remaining after other taxes are paid, including income tax.

Be afraid, be very afraid!
So many businesses will remove themselves from Scotland
,You aren't really going to vote yes as a country.

Aww bless. Project Fear at its finest.

Statistically Good post as always
Oh, and at the debate in Holyrood our MSPs failed to oppose the war in Iraq. Yes, the motion was defeated by 16 votes Labour and the Conservatives voted against the motion, and sadly there just weren't enough LibDem/SNP msps. I suspect that vote began the collapse of Labour in Scotland.