Indyref 6

[StatisticallyChallenged]

Welcome to indyref 6

Spidergirl8 asked close to end of last thread:

What impact would independence have on fiscal policy and economic stability
What impact would the ageing population have on the future
Is the predicted future a positive one, based on fact

If the bite goes no, what has actually been achieved? Does that not just put Scotland on the back foot?

Let's try and give not too biased answers please!

You got a link for that, ItsAll?

Terrified :(

I could well believe it Itsall. Someone's on to something here with the predictions. Of course no one knows for sure, but it's just a hunch that with a predicted 80% turn out, things are going to be so close. DH already saying he'll be sitting up the whole night to watch the break down of results.

VArious twitter sources just now, officially released 2200 (hence why I said allegedly) Also apparently being reported by Sky. 2(?) more polls also due soon.

The latest poll will be causing palpitations in Westminster.

And IrnBru you think 49% will just go oh well that's fine on the 19th. I feel sick at the thought of there being a yes victory.

tb when it's this close, I don't think polls mean much. I think though that a result based on a 50 50 split is going to be pretty nasty.

Hopefully peaked too soon

I still can't bring myself to trust the polls, but this is encouraging.

I'll be waiting up for the results too, IrnBru, it's scary that it's so soon!

I read somewhere that yougov isn't the most respected of pollsters? Aren't they the ones who put yes ahead last time (the only other time) and all the other pollsters consistently say 'no' is ahead?

So I still have hope.

What if it's a tie?

What would happen if exactly the same number of votes are cast for both options?

YouGov historically least Yes friendly pollster.
Panelbase poll also due in a few hours.
Rumours of ICM poll sometime soon I am (few days?)

I think the odds of a true tie are remote enough to be non-existent. It will be close though.

only the vote on the day will tell us, so we all need to go out and vote

No of course ;)

A tie is surely impossible. I don't know what they'd do then.

I think the odds of a true tie are remote enough to be non-existent. It will be close though.

I think so too.

I guess it depends on the momentum of Yes. Last youGov poll was huge swing to Yes too.

Poll looks legit, tomorrow's Sunday Times...

If it is going to be so close, I guess there will be calls for a recount. It could drag on.

my mum's just said to me "we'll be moving then" :(

35% labour voters backing a Yes, up from 18% a month ago.

I don't think they will release a final result until they are 100% sure.

Twitter is now saying 51% Yes and 40% No.

Excuse me, 49% no.

If it was a tie then they'd recount :-)

Thanks for that lady c and statistically. Without wanting to rile you, so it's ultimately unknowable at this point, depending largely on the outcome of negotiations .

That the mumsnet survey?