Indyref 6

[StatisticallyChallenged]

Welcome to indyref 6

Spidergirl8 asked close to end of last thread:

What impact would independence have on fiscal policy and economic stability
What impact would the ageing population have on the future
Is the predicted future a positive one, based on fact

If the bite goes no, what has actually been achieved? Does that not just put Scotland on the back foot?

Let's try and give not too biased answers please!

I think Statistically should write a Big Book of Stats

Thanks for that Statistically, you raise some really interesting points. I do feel very wary about this talk around income generated from oil, Scotland needs more than that. In my more hopeful moments I do see an opportunity to break away as a European leader in renewable energy and developments in thus area. However that would be hugely influenced by political agendas etc I guess.

This one is, but they don't have to recognise any future ones

They couldn't just ignore it. This isn't Spain. It's unthinkable that a Westminster government would ignore a clear majority in a fair, properly held referendum. You could just leave anyway, no one could stop you.

I've missed loads, has there been any word on how the webchat will be formatted?

So much of this debate has been dominated by economics.

I was think ing about this list of the top countries in terms of happiness. The UK is 10th.

What place would an independent Scotland be in?

do feel very wary about this talk around income generated from oil, Scotland needs more than that.

Scotlands GDP/head without oil is pretty much the same as the UKs
blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-scotlands-oil-wealth/17811

Nothing on the webchat. But there again, given the speed we are chewing through Indyref threads, I'm not surprised they haven't put anything up yet

They couldn't just ignore it. This isn't Spain. It's unthinkable that a Westminster government would ignore a clear majority in a fair, properly held referendum. You could just leave anyway, no one could stop you.

This isn't just coming from the referendum issue, but about WM in general - I just wouldn't trust them to recognise it. I don't think that they have the best interests of the UK, as a whole, at heart. Cameron vetoed DevoMax as an option in this referendum - it seems clear that he did so because he was worried it would be the most popular option (I think it would have been).

Scotland could just say it was leaving the Union, but we would still be under Westminster rule, legally.

Spider girl- oil is only 15% of Scotland's exports.

Food and drink exports are worth £5.31 billion

Chemicals are worth £3.7 billion

Computer, electronic and optical products £1.4 billion

Financial and insurance £1.4 billion

Mechanical engineering £1.4 billion

Textiles is the 7th biggest export.

Tourist spend in is £4 billion per year

Our economy isn't dependent on oil.

I think MNHQ might be scared to start a webchat thread, we'd likely fill it within a few days!

I was think ing about this list of the top countries in terms of happiness. The UK is 10th.

That was last year, Uk, now 12th
www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/#11111111111

I'd like think an Indy Scotland would rank higher than rUK, otherwise what is the point?

Thanks weatherall, for that clarification

I'm beginning to think that I have imagined Salmond outlining not 1 but several plan b's and reading about them in the white paper.

The point is we're going to be going through negotiations once the yes vote is in. Both sides know you don't show all your cards before you start.

Just to expand on my post about another referendum.

I have no vote in this, but I am greatly interested in the future of Scotland and the UK.

I would be very disappointed if Scotland leaves now with a tiny Yes majority, because there is going to a lot of ill feeling all round - both with Scotland and particularly between Scotland and cUK. There will be no currency union, and Scotland will struggle.

There will be a new UK government next year, very likely a Labour one, and new policies all round. In the meantime I think people outside Scotland are coming to realise that Scotland will be going its own way sooner or later, and the government will have to accommodate it.

Hopefully next time there can be agreement on a better referendum proposal, not just this bald yes/no. A proper proposal that covers issues such as a currency union, shared defence etc. Some might call it a federal system. That would be the time to separate.

But I fear the nationalists are going to win this time and it will all get very messy and unpleasant.

I'm pretty sure both sides are reading through all these threads to get an idea of what issues us MNetters are most interested in.

Such as who we would sh*g...

Following Weatherall's list.

Much of financial and insurance will move to England or the continent.

Much of the engineering is shipping for the UK, which will move to England.

Re demographics/ageing population

This picture shows a current Scottish population pyramid (top) and a UK one (bottom). Sources are GROS and ONS so reputable.

Apologies if they're a bit off scaling wise, but the important aspect is the shapes. You'll notice that the UK one has bulges, but it has one towards the bottom and there isn't a massive difference between the width of them. The bulges are basically population "booms" i.e. large amounts of people at that age. You'll notice the Scottish one is more tapered - which is because we have fewer young people. The state pension isn't funded i.e. nobody has a state pension pot. It's paid for by today's tax payers, not your own NI contributions (although these determine eligibility). Older people tend to contribute less financially through tax, and cost more via medical care/pensions/benefits etc. So an unbalanced population can be hard to deal with.

Scottish life expectancy is generally lower which it could be said would counteract this slightly (morbid as that is) however there are also pledges to cancel the pension age increase and increase the state pension which would more than cancel that - will find link!

2010-2012 life expectancy for males at birth is 78.9 vs 76.6 for Scotland
For females, it's 82.7 vs 80.8

www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_360047.pdf

Sallyingforth, not necessarily! There has been much heated debate about these points on these threads and no conclusions. There's also no definitive statements from the industries. Be careful not to present your prediction as fact when we're all trying so hard to be unbiased :-)

P.s. just realised that might read as patronising to anyone who knows how to read pop. pyramids, sorry! Loads of folk don't! No offence intended.

I think Sally's assumption it will be nasty and unpleasant after the 18th is a very fair one, whichever side wins.

The little blue book of stats would contain a bucket load of swearing, is that allowed

deeedeee
We have heard on here from people in the FS industry in Edinburgh who have already be told that they will be moving in the event of a Yes. This is because of a statutory requirement on management of funds which has also been quoted. This is not optional.
Also we know that the UK government will not place orders for fighting ships with foreign yards.
Yes there has been debate but these are facts.

You should do it statistically. :-)

The little blue book of stats would contain a bucket load of swearing, is that allowed

Of course.

Sallyingforth, fair enough, we disagree. Could you provide some independant statements from the industries please :-)