Fuck. Russian bomb has hit Poland.

Behind the scenes, diplomatic noises are talking about a peace deal. Earlier on in the year, Biden showed some irritation at Ukrainian maximalism and indeed Ukrainians have said they will fight on whether or not they get aid.

You only have to see how the US precipitately abandoned Afghanistan and 1000s of US supporters and equipment to see that their calculation will about ending this before the next Presidential round and the last thing they want is to be directly involved in this quagmire. That's how the US works and NATO will get behind that come the time because that's just the way it works - the tail does not wag the dog.

Indeed the US has already "won", they have exposed Russian weakness they have had a real-time laboratory to see how Russian weaponry and army work in theatre and along with the west have started a rearmament process and increase in military spending and consolidation of NATO that seemed to have lost its way until quite recently. Very sadly Ukraine has been seriously destroyed in that process through no fault of their own.

The US doesn't seek or want a hot war with Russia - the rise of China seems to be the focus of their ongoing concerns.

It's not that cryptic, it is pretty obvious their commentary would not be flattering.

I think it sounds like Russia is trying to undermine Ukraine's credibility and saying 'See - this is how the big boys play'. It's possibly going to drive Zelensky and even Poland insane to think that we're so unwilling to defend either of them.

This was almost a gift to Putin. It has tested the waters. It has tested NATO's response. Whoever fired that missile has a lot to answer for and press conferences really need to measure their responses to enquiring minds in the media.

I was simply saying it looks like we are all going along with this same story, Russia included regardless, and when announcements by Nato and Russia are so timed - well it is not exactly comfortable is it, given the tone of the Russian announcement.

It stinks. Actually.
Are we really expected to believe the weak Nato 'probably' 'appears' statement of fact?

All I can think is that Russia must be high fiving right now. If they can drive a wedge between Ukraine and Nato all the better.

I hope Ukraine can shed some light, and soon. Their silence is now palpable.

I thought they were taking the piss. That kind of contempt. Laughing at the U.S.

i.e you know it was our missile (Russian)… you don’t want to rock the boat more so thank you for de-escalating the situation and blaming Ukraine. We now know you are unlikely to step up and actually do anything against us unless we really, really openly push you.

🤷‍♀️ truth is we will never really know.

Agreed.

You have summed it up perfectly.
I think that analysis is spot on.
That is how I understand it too.
The voters are becoming (very) weary. Talking about the mounting costs.
The @US were in Russia talking through exit options only last week, all the while publicly announcing 'nothing happens in Ukraine without Ukraine'

If this is a turning point - then that might be positive?
It doesn't feel positive, it feels like a stitch up - and perhaps that is how these things work in the end, someone patches up a solution and that is how it ends.
Who can trust Russia to honour any agreement?

The head of the CIA and Russian intelligence opened face-to-face talks 2 days ago - a messy peace which Ukraine won't like but will probably be forced to accept lies down that road.

www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/14/cia-director-meets-russian-counterpart-in-ankara

Unfortunately Ukraine is almost seen as collateral damage.

I hate war and think it should be avoided as much as possible. I also do not think NATO should directly get involved as it could well kick off WW3. However, as much as hate war, I do think Ukraine has no choice and I support the West providing weapons.

Well, why are they silent? I thought you were expressing the importance of the 'grey' earlier, your, we are all singing from the same hym sheet now, is an oversimplified observation.

Deep in my heart, I know Russia won't ever truly give up until they were well and truly broken beyond repair and there is nothing left in the tank so to speak, and it has been such a terrible scarring experience they will never try again.

I am very doubtful of a negotiated exit with Russia, they are not like other countries where agreements are honoured, and rules of war are obeyed. They are a rogue state by its very definition. I don't know how the West can negotiate knowing it may very well embolden Russia.

Russia are most likely to agree possibly to an exit of some kind with the US. Someone will lean on Ukraine, and Russia will take its chance, learn from their mistakes, regroup and return. I feel Ukraine knows this too, which is why they are insisting on so many conditions to the peace talks. The starting point being Putin's removal.

There has been plenty of informed comment that what can come after Putin could be worse. A collapse of RF and a return to lawlessness and warlordism of statelets that have access to nuclear arsenals. I think Russia know they have already lost and their wanton destruction of infrastructure is the rage of a dying animal lashing out. The US will no doubt be offering Zelensky some sort of Marshall Plan where US corporations help in rebuilding the country and replace the UKR oligarchs with US financial interests.

Behind the scenes, diplomatic noises are talking about a peace deal. Earlier on in the year, Biden showed some irritation at Ukrainian maximalism and indeed Ukrainians have said they will fight on whether or not they get aid

Ukraine would be foolish to continue the war if US stopped or reduced support.
Russia has the raw materials and the factories to re arm and have another go.,... indeed they have the means to manufacture older missiles & artillery forever more.... Ukraine isn't destroying Russian factories and cities etc...

imho - Ukraine would be wise to give up ambitions on Crimea and to lose territory in the East... in return for a demilitarised zone in Russia and Ukraine, security guarantees from NATO and a concerted effort to get Ukraine re armed with Western weapons and air defence.

Neither can "win" atm so unless they both compromise, the war goes on for years and Ukraine, not Russia, will eventually be destroyed.

I can not see Ukraine agreeing to losing territory in the East, maybe Crimea is still on the table. I can't see much more being agreed.

Have we established that Art5 will not be triggered by this incident, no nukes will be dropped in response and that politics would kick in and they'd be lots of noise and hot air yet?

Good, glad we are all agreed that the howling last night was, indeed, ridiculous...

red I don't think anyone said anything about nukes last night, that I remember.
I would say it is too soon to say how this will end.
It largely depends on whether Ukraine accepts responsibility, they haven't so far, and what Russia do next.
If another bomb lands in Poland tonight all bets are off!

Some people have very short memories…

of course no one was wanting article five to be triggered now it looks likely it was indeed a Ukrainian missile …

Who said that? can you cut n paste the quote?

It was NOT a Ukrainian missile.
No one has said that.

It was a Russian missile being deflected by Ukraine to try and protect their country, well that is the story, as Ukraine have yet to comment and take responsibility - I will withhold any conclusion. I still think there is every chance it was Russia.

As suspected you are really trying to mislead people on this thread.

Go search (I’m on phone and just found it!) but can’t be bothered to go back.

Nukes and WW3 being the end were mentioned quite early on.

Guess who’s first post proclaimed “this is no accident”?

I was mainly referring to the Daily Mail headline, but yes, a fine example of how our irresponsible, scoop grabbing tabloid tat just wants to instil fear and hatred in the public.

Seriously - they have said it was most likely a missile fired by Ukraine - that is what they have been repeating for the last few hours.

Nope Nato have gone to great lengths to confirm this was NOT Ukraine's fault.

You did. Here's a direct quote from one of your posts last night:

"The issue is: if Nato do nothing and sweep the 'accident' under the rug - Russia reads thats as Nato unable/reluctant to get involved. Hence the probable use of chemical or targeted nuclear weapons against Ukraine which would be much more 'doable' with confidence if they feel Nato are squeamish about involvement."

You also said that this was more serious than anything we had seen in the world in several decades.

Good no one was scaremongering, though, hey?