I see two key short term windows as a time frame here presently. And a third longer term national security strategy at play to think about in terms of timelines.
Window 1
The next week is particularly crucial for lots of reasons. To a degree, I'm inclined to say if you haven't already stockpiled, it may actually be too late if it does kick off immediately.
Tomorrow the French get a Moody's review. It's widely expected that they will be downgraded. This isn't going to help their debt woes and the civil unrest.
Another protest is planned for Saturday but it looks like the authorities are likely to take a harder line.
France continuing to have ongoing civil unrest is troubling due to a minor issue called 'The Channel Tunnel' and the minor factor that we import a significant amount of our food and goods through it.
French instability is a massive risk to our fragile just in time supply system. It's highly possible that we could start seeing supply shocks due to this.
The UK budget on Wednesday is also another flash point. If the government get it wrong and the markets don't like the budget, we could see some negative market reaction which pushes prices up. And yeah that affects a lot and may start to trigger unrest in the UK (though presently I think we are doing better than other countries on this front as Burnham is better liked and is currently getting the benefit of the doubt compared to a lot of other leaders around the UK, but this could wear off quickly).
And then this is against the backdrop of Trump and Netanyahu doing something really stupid and destabilising the whole world significantly. We really need a normalisation of the Gulf ASAP as we are currently living off oil reserves which will eventually run out. If infrastructure gets significantly damaged we are looking at long term energy related problems and fertiliser related issues. And we need Trump to stop being a jerk off about Ukraine and to accept midterm results. His reaction to the mid terms and whether he goes nuts domestically or over Ukraine also matter a great deal.
IF we get past the next week without too much happening some of the pressure eases but doesn't go away. IF things ramp up, problems on the horizon might happen sooner than you expect - particularly as panic buying as a possibility is very possible in a couple of these scenarios.
Window Two
Issues arent going away though even if the worst doesn't happen in France or the Gulf and in relation to the Midterms.
We clearly are seeing a spike in internet related problems and deliberate hacking. The Dutch and French Fridge and Supermarket incident is very worrying. Especially since we know that Russia has said it intends to up sabotage attempts across Europe. Again we've seen empty shelves in France, Italy and The Netherlands in the last week. This happened very quickly. I have a sense of when not if given the last two weeks of internet security related issues. Probably sooner rather than later.
Plus there's Gulf War fixed in problems now - infrastructure is damaged and we still have refinery capacity issues. Unless we can get on top of this, at some point we are going to have a supply issue - refineries need maintenance and can't run at max capacity for long and the reserves we are using ATM are finite. This hasn't fully unwound even if no more damage is done from today. This still has to play out.
The other thing that has to play out is wheat shortages and fertiliser problems. We KNOW there will be a significant famine in north Africa and the middle east. Ukraine and Russia are not able to export grain fully due to the war and we know low harvests in Europe are going to add to this pressure. Zelenskyy did actually put a date of two to three months - so end of November through to Christmas being flash points. Again this is liable to trigger civil unrest and offer risks to food and oil security (a lot of oil is currently being over landed from Iraq through Syria - there are some obvious issues with security with this). Currently the blockade of the Gulf is massively affecting fertiliser exports (this imports to Europe) compounded by export bans on fertiliser and sulphur (crucial for fertiliser production amongst other uses) by Russia and China.
High diesel prices and fertiliser prices are also leading to farmers going out of business (this not planting) or reducing planting due to the high costs. This is going to play out into next year with definite impacts on prices. Atm a 6% rise minimum on food prices is looking on the cards.
Households are going to get squeezed enough on energy come Jan with the energy price cap going up 20% so this is going to have a huge impact on cost of living.
I would say that there's actually an argument here to get ahead of the curve and to try and buy long life food in now whilst you can afford it as part of prudent financial planning - without any further disaster actually happening because there's enough pressure in the supply chain already which is going to impact us in three to six months regardless.
Any problems with energy blackouts are more likely to be the other side of Christmas when it gets coldest in the UK. The fact that Ofgem is warning that the UK may fail to meet demand for energy this winter sticks out as a point.
So my second window is really by Christmas for this reason.
Window Three
And Russia. Russia isn't going away. Russia is actively threatening us and there is a general mood that we have one of two scenarios to play out - Ukraine collapses and the problem gets closer to us or Russia starts to collapse and getting ever more desperate lashes out at Europe more. This doesn't change regardless of all of the above. The above just might compound Russian related issues. There's a sense that we need to think about more direct conflict with Russia within two years.
So this is also a longer term push for the normalisation of carrying extra supplies in your house with a bigger more direct war like scenario being viable .
So my third and last window is basically a normalisation of carrying extra food in your house being a long term UK defensive strategy to be in place within the next twelve to eighteen months.
This is without considering the unexpected of natural disasters or anything else unforeseen or foreseen but coming at us at pace.
Conclusion
So basically, this should be something that as many people as possible start to wrap their heads around as being a change to their general shopping habits and something we need to all get used to as normal permanently.
This isn't actually out of step with other nations as a basic concept of self reliance, preservation and ability to respond to crisis generally at greater speed and with greater efficiency should the need arise.
I think actually we've really been lax on this and ridden our luck because we generally have had such high levels of stability and security (both economic and strategic). And our self sufficiency has eroded quite considerably so we no longer have the luxury of being able to take this for granted. I think we've slept walked into this position and woken up rudely and gone 'oh fuck' and it needs addressing.
So yeah. Three timeframes for everyone to think about and work towards at this point, with the window on the first either already closed (and we don't realise it yet) or rapidly closing at this point. I think there's actually a risk of supply shock (not genuine shortages) if people do panic in the next week if events do start to unfold badly.
Genuinely a hugely amount depends on what the Great Dickhead of Dementia does in the next fortnight as to how bad / how quick. Which in itself is bloody scary.
So overall that's my assessment at this point. Give it 24 hours and I might turn up the volume on this though! (That's how quickly events are changing).