Crisis What Crisis? The One You Start To Wish You'd Stockpiled Like Your Crazy Friend? Continuation thread (3)

[RedToothBrush]

Previous threads
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/5576816-aibu-to-think-my-friend-is-overdoing-emergency-stockpiling?page=1
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5585259-crisis-what-crisis-is-my-friend-over-doing-the-stockpiling-and-am-i-too-continuation-thread-2?page=1

Continuation of the AIBU to think my friend is overdoing emergency stockpiling thread for discussion about the government advice to stockpile for an imminent emergency and what the heck that emergency might actually be.

Spoiler: it's more of a perfect storm of lots of factors coming together to potentially form one great clusterfuck from economic woes, global energy shortages (mainly diesel), potential food shortages, war and madmen to crazy weather patterns rather than a clear identifiable singular thread.
This is a practical thread and a bit of a handhold thread to make sense of events and how they may affect you. This is not an end of the world thread.

Remember an emergency can range from a temporary unexpected event to a much longer crisis but the underlying principles generally stay the same.

This is the official government information and advice, if you want further details on what the actual recommendations are:
https://prepare.campaign.gov.uk/get-prepared-for-emergencies/

ROUGH STATUS REPORT (as of 9am 22nd Oct - please note this isn't fully comprehensive, and is moving FAST)
Civil Unrest reported in:
France, Italy, Greece, Belgium, Albania, Indonesia - multi reasons, but largely due to economic pressures and the cost of living
Spain has had problems but these have temporarily stopped, probably due to significant weather related issues due to the Dana effect
More protests planned for this coming weekend
High Alert in the Middle East:
Netanyahu now committed to regime change in Iran, as he believes they are developing a nuke.
The US has pulled all Embassy Staff from Saudi Arabia and is hoping no one notices that they've ordered personal and families across the Gulf home and then seem to have lied that they have.
The Emir of Qatar has stated at their equivalent of the annual King's Speech at the Opening of Parliament that war was coming and to prepare for the worst scenarios. US pulling planes out of Qatar.
The Egyptian PM has warned the country of severe crisis ahead - given the nature of the country this is related to their alliance with Saudi Arabia and their reliance on the Suez Canal which the Yemeni rebels now control access to and their exposure to famine
Iran is saying if there is another attack, the gloves are off and they'll try and wipe out the middle east oil industry as they go down, as well as hitting critical civilian infrastructure.
Much movement / noise is similar to run up to the first US attacks this year. Debate over whether the attack will come before the Israeli Election or the US Midterms - possibly within 72hours - latest mood music suggests potentially this weekend. Seems to be shifting to a when not if.
Israel election: 27th Oct
Prices and Shortages:
Diesel needs no real reminder - we need it for haulage, mass transportation and farming, we are screwed without it. Fuel Emergency declarations in West Virgina, Kentucky, Michigan, Maryland, Arizona, Nebraska and Texas - typically allowing limited dyed diesel use for ag or commercial vehicles. Illinois and Missouri have also allowed by not under emergency orders. Less reported is the fertiliser shortage and knock on effect, poor yields this year and the effect of El Nino on next years, sulphur export bans and the blockade on Ukrainian and Russian wheat exports which are particularly crucial in feeding North Africa and the Middle East. This is liable to have significant impact on the UK with 6% rises in food already expected next year (and there's every reason to believe this will be higher especially with civil unrest all over the place). Reports of aviation fuel running low in some parts of Europe with emergency supplies (which can't last forever) being used.
El Nino:
See above about farming and also think of disasters - like the ones Spain is facing with flooding. Storm Austin is incoming and there is a weather warning for the South of England with power outages and flooding possible today/tomorrow.
The Internet:
PHP is 70% of the internet. Its got compromised so it can pretty much all be hacked. This is VERY BAD (in capital letters). Many websites offline whilst this is sorted including multiple government ones around the world.
Just AI generally - everything from putting everyone out of work to just hacking and killing us all. No Biggie.
Trump and the Mid Terms:
Trump is firmly losing his marbles. He's defected to Russia, can't stop rambling about men's arses, is waving at non-existent people, his team are known to be considering ways to impose martial law, he's getting heckled at Trump rallies by his own supporters, 83% of all voters think the biggest problem in the US now isn't the cost of living crisis but government corruption. He's being called a traitor by some of his fellow Reds. Mid Terms look a disaster and Trump probably won't accept them. He's reversing bills that Congress passed weeks ago by executive order.
Mid-Terms: 3rd Nov
Ukraine and Russia:
Ukraine facing massive problems still cos Elon has got the ump. Starlink isn't working at face enough speeds. They've bombed a shedload of Data Centres in Russia. This has killed off the Russian Internet and many Trump/Musk supporters in the process (one way or another) which screws up Twitter (and its value) for them. Ukraine is getting blamed for diesel shortages cos they refuse to stop hitting Russian refineries even though it has no choice now its been cut off by the US. Zelenskyy now says Trump isn't an ally. Trump wants Zelensky gone and thinks Putin is being reasonable and Ukraine doesn't want peace. Germany states it would have activated Art5 if the confirmed Russian sabotage attack on Liepzig had been successful.
Russia is apparently planning to step up its sabotage campaign in Europe after having successfully sunk a few boats in EU waters (Romania / Bulgaria - these sinkings have been in both international waters off the coast AND within their official territorial waters).
Economy:
Lots of debt. Much concern over the implications of this particularly with regards to AI and state debt in the US, UK, France and Japan (but not restricted to). Much money put into gold by China. Background of this bad given the approach of potentially multiple crisis.
France Moody's credit review: Due tomorrow 23rd Oct - expected to be not good especially in the current political climate in France
UK Budget: 28th October

They are all interconnected and one or many could tip us into abject chaos. Or not. The risks here are sky high. Of what? Take your pick.

I'm not much of a physicist but I am picturing fermentation and gas forcing sewage back up pipes and out the plughole if the power to handle sewage was off for any length of time. Horrible thought and feels a bit end of days, but we do rely so heavily on modern technology now. Very much hope there is a plan in place for this sort of thing.

I have a sewage inspection chamber in my driveway - it's a space the size of a football where sewage pipes meet. In case of emergency we could lift the lid and stuff/cover the sewage pipe which goes into the house. This should cause the sewage to come up in the chamber and spill onto the road. I didn't even think of sewage being a risk, thank you for adding one more thing to worry about haha

Re toilets, we rent an old house with old drains and the house is the only property on that drain and it needs flushing through properly or it has a tendency to get blocked. We didn't realise that to begin with and had a few blockages when we first lived here because, like most people, we tried to save water. We already knew about composting toilets, so we made one using the guide from the Humanure Handbook and put it in the garden shed for emergencies. It hasn't needed to be used very often but was a real godsend a few times. It may be a bit hardcore but it's worth thinking about.

www.humanurehandbook.com/humanure_toilet.html

So living on a hill is good?!

I was once told that your best chance of not being flooded is living near to a very old church, because they were built in places that don't get flooded. Tewkesbury Abbey is a good example.

https://www.alamy.com/an-aerial-view-of-flooding-around-tewkesbury-abbey-in-tewkesbury-gloucestershire-as-the-uk-has-been-hit-by-widespread-flooding-after-rivers-burst-their-banks-following-the-weekends-heavy-rain-image331213741.html

Re: sewage back up. We didn't have a problem when Severn Trent had to shut it's pumping station off for 18 days many years ago. At that time, we were told not to put faeces in the refuse bins, so all human waste was being washed down down the toilet with water out of water butt. Guidance has changed though, faeces can now be disposed of in sealed bags within your refuse in, so hopefully if most people were to do that, it would certainly limit that problem.

Does this work just for graveyards as well 🤨

A rather large one just down the road.

Makes sense they don’t want dead bodies floating around.

I'm hoping so!

As I understand it, this is only a risk if the power is off in a way that means sewage systems don't work - not just if there's no water. The sort of situation covered by this https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/public-health-advice-from-uk-cmos-during-a-national-power-outage/water-and-sanitation-scripts-for-broadcast-media. They say don't flush anything, presumably because if you do it might not get taken away properly. I'm guessing that if people really do follow that instruction and don't try to flush things, it's not likely to be a problem for a short period of time.

I don't know but most old churches have grave yards right outside them. Corpses and skeletons emerging from underground wouldn't be a good look

I think this is very useful to know, from 'the script' linked above:

To make sure you can carry on washing your hands while the power is out, fill a large bowl like a washing up bowl with water and add some soap or a household disinfectant. Use this soapy water to wash your hands after using the toilet. Everyone in the house can share this bowl of soap and water to wash their hands the whole time while the power is out, without needing to replace it. I know this might sound unusual, but the water will remain safe for washing your hands throughout the period.

Good advice about handwashing, hygiene can get so difficult when there's no water. When we had a power/water cut for 5 days when DD was a baby her eczema got infected because we couldn't clean her properly.

How awful, poor kid!

I will be toast then.

Weather has calmed down here in Scotland (well my bit anyway, town not too far from Edinburgh). We had heavy rain and then very windy as well. Lights were flickering on and off one of the evenings but no powercut phew.

No flooding thankfully.

Feeling chilly - the sort of chill you get when everything is just soaking wet. Had the heating on quite alot the last week. Keep thinking how high the next bill is going to be. Still not complaining at least it works and all that. It will be seriously miserable if the heating stops working. I think we underestimate how much cold effects you not just physically but mentally as well.

So many threads on mumsnet now re stocking up etc. I notice on Amazon the number of wind up radios has dramatically decreased. When I bought mine a month ago there were loads and loads. Now hardly any.

Price of food is really getting beyond the joke now. Prawn cocktail in Tesco. Used to be 2 for £4, then £4.50 and now they are £3.25 each with no offers on. I don't think I will be buying them anymore. I set myself a budget of £400 per month for Tesco/Waitrose. Now that is to include laundry powder, toiletries, dishwash tablets etc. I live alone with a fussy dog and I just can't keep to this budget. Now the dog does eat alot of meat so I guess it's more like feeding 2 people rather than 1 plus a dog. Still though. You would think that £100 per week would be enough. It used to be plenty. Now the basket total just adds up so quickly it is frightening. The only brightspot was their breaded haddock was back in stock and £4 which is weirdly less than it was 6 months ago. I bought 7 boxes so hope there are no powercuts!

I definately foresee economic problems for the UK. Already consumer spending is seeing a drop and as everyone on the really cheap mortgage rates has to remortage this year and next they will no doubt start feeling the pinch. God knows what will be in the budget this year. I'm going to be so cheesed off if they don't do something about our defence spending. Of course they don't want to spike the bond markets and make our interest payments higher. I don't fancy the PM's job.

Still I have my 20 packs of toilet rolls, 100 tins of sardines and 50 litres of water so I am smug about that. I've eaten all the cereal bars and cheesy crackers so buying them was a bad idea and I will not be restocking up with them as clearly I can't trust myself.

All this talk of toilets backing-up is making me feel sick. I did look at portable toilets in case we have to bag it and bin it but I decided not to buy one in the end. My house is a mess with all the stockpiles and I am skint.

So each day I am trying to be grateful for all the things we take for granted. Heating, hot water, clean laundry, hot baths and no food shortages. I'm also doing my laundry and dishwashing in the afternoon rather than the evening as I figure powercuts are more likely at the peak period of 5-8pm. Course I am retired so have that luxury. Realise not everyone does.

Welcome back RedToothBrush. The thread wasn't the same without you.

Lets see what this week brings.....

Re reservoirs, Wimbleball in the South West also serves some of Devon and a bit of West Dorset as well as Somerset. According to SW Water it was 14% as of 25th October so up from 13%. It's total capacity is 21,320 Megalitres so it will take a lot of rain to make every percentage point of difference. We've had lots of rain over the last few days but the ground is also so very dry.

It's going to take months of rain to make a significant difference.

We've got large water butts, we'd normally be running them down at this time of the year but we're keeping them full as we may well see further restrictions in these areas and we can at least use it for toilets. I really must get water purifying tablets.

I love your username. (And I miss my dog!)

Civil unrest in South Africa as well.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ck5yn9z3vnego

I've just read the gov advice that would be broadcast in the event of total power loss.
I was already aware of how we would need to manage.
What worries me is that there are lots of people who have no idea.
This needs to be common knowledge, leaving it to day 1/2 of the outage is too late

I've been catching up slowly with this thread but not posting so far. Then I reached this point in the thread:

If we get to the point of needing a geiger counter I'm done and wouldn't want to be here.

Hell, NO. I am with you on that. I've just recently rewatched that old 1980s series, Edge of Darkness, in which that particular item features large and am now rather wishing I hadn't. (It IS bloody good, though). And YES to the garden sauna. That's been on my wish list for years.

I can't say that I like this much. I've never been a conspiracy theorist or a stock-piler, and am not about to start panicking now. But as this is a Europe-wide initiative and not just the UK - it's not new advice after all - then it seems sensible. A bit of self-sufficiency has never been a bad thing.

The world does feel very unstable at present. Let's hope none of this will end up being necessary and can just be a bit of an extension to the way we ordinarily run our homes.

Lots of protests in lots of places.
Was Guilfoyle sacked for saying the quiet bit out loud?

where can one read that?

UK is just a few years late to the party tbf.

Here
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/public-health-advice-from-uk-cmos-during-a-national-power-outage

Well I may have got carried away and bought a water filter that screws into a drinks bottle... but hey, not £££