Crisis What Crisis? The One You Start To Wish You'd Stockpiled Like Your Crazy Friend? Continuation thread (3)

[RedToothBrush]

Previous threads
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/5576816-aibu-to-think-my-friend-is-overdoing-emergency-stockpiling?page=1
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5585259-crisis-what-crisis-is-my-friend-over-doing-the-stockpiling-and-am-i-too-continuation-thread-2?page=1

Continuation of the AIBU to think my friend is overdoing emergency stockpiling thread for discussion about the government advice to stockpile for an imminent emergency and what the heck that emergency might actually be.

Spoiler: it's more of a perfect storm of lots of factors coming together to potentially form one great clusterfuck from economic woes, global energy shortages (mainly diesel), potential food shortages, war and madmen to crazy weather patterns rather than a clear identifiable singular thread.
This is a practical thread and a bit of a handhold thread to make sense of events and how they may affect you. This is not an end of the world thread.

Remember an emergency can range from a temporary unexpected event to a much longer crisis but the underlying principles generally stay the same.

This is the official government information and advice, if you want further details on what the actual recommendations are:
https://prepare.campaign.gov.uk/get-prepared-for-emergencies/

ROUGH STATUS REPORT (as of 9am 22nd Oct - please note this isn't fully comprehensive, and is moving FAST)
Civil Unrest reported in:
France, Italy, Greece, Belgium, Albania, Indonesia - multi reasons, but largely due to economic pressures and the cost of living
Spain has had problems but these have temporarily stopped, probably due to significant weather related issues due to the Dana effect
More protests planned for this coming weekend
High Alert in the Middle East:
Netanyahu now committed to regime change in Iran, as he believes they are developing a nuke.
The US has pulled all Embassy Staff from Saudi Arabia and is hoping no one notices that they've ordered personal and families across the Gulf home and then seem to have lied that they have.
The Emir of Qatar has stated at their equivalent of the annual King's Speech at the Opening of Parliament that war was coming and to prepare for the worst scenarios. US pulling planes out of Qatar.
The Egyptian PM has warned the country of severe crisis ahead - given the nature of the country this is related to their alliance with Saudi Arabia and their reliance on the Suez Canal which the Yemeni rebels now control access to and their exposure to famine
Iran is saying if there is another attack, the gloves are off and they'll try and wipe out the middle east oil industry as they go down, as well as hitting critical civilian infrastructure.
Much movement / noise is similar to run up to the first US attacks this year. Debate over whether the attack will come before the Israeli Election or the US Midterms - possibly within 72hours - latest mood music suggests potentially this weekend. Seems to be shifting to a when not if.
Israel election: 27th Oct
Prices and Shortages:
Diesel needs no real reminder - we need it for haulage, mass transportation and farming, we are screwed without it. Fuel Emergency declarations in West Virgina, Kentucky, Michigan, Maryland, Arizona, Nebraska and Texas - typically allowing limited dyed diesel use for ag or commercial vehicles. Illinois and Missouri have also allowed by not under emergency orders. Less reported is the fertiliser shortage and knock on effect, poor yields this year and the effect of El Nino on next years, sulphur export bans and the blockade on Ukrainian and Russian wheat exports which are particularly crucial in feeding North Africa and the Middle East. This is liable to have significant impact on the UK with 6% rises in food already expected next year (and there's every reason to believe this will be higher especially with civil unrest all over the place). Reports of aviation fuel running low in some parts of Europe with emergency supplies (which can't last forever) being used.
El Nino:
See above about farming and also think of disasters - like the ones Spain is facing with flooding. Storm Austin is incoming and there is a weather warning for the South of England with power outages and flooding possible today/tomorrow.
The Internet:
PHP is 70% of the internet. Its got compromised so it can pretty much all be hacked. This is VERY BAD (in capital letters). Many websites offline whilst this is sorted including multiple government ones around the world.
Just AI generally - everything from putting everyone out of work to just hacking and killing us all. No Biggie.
Trump and the Mid Terms:
Trump is firmly losing his marbles. He's defected to Russia, can't stop rambling about men's arses, is waving at non-existent people, his team are known to be considering ways to impose martial law, he's getting heckled at Trump rallies by his own supporters, 83% of all voters think the biggest problem in the US now isn't the cost of living crisis but government corruption. He's being called a traitor by some of his fellow Reds. Mid Terms look a disaster and Trump probably won't accept them. He's reversing bills that Congress passed weeks ago by executive order.
Mid-Terms: 3rd Nov
Ukraine and Russia:
Ukraine facing massive problems still cos Elon has got the ump. Starlink isn't working at face enough speeds. They've bombed a shedload of Data Centres in Russia. This has killed off the Russian Internet and many Trump/Musk supporters in the process (one way or another) which screws up Twitter (and its value) for them. Ukraine is getting blamed for diesel shortages cos they refuse to stop hitting Russian refineries even though it has no choice now its been cut off by the US. Zelenskyy now says Trump isn't an ally. Trump wants Zelensky gone and thinks Putin is being reasonable and Ukraine doesn't want peace. Germany states it would have activated Art5 if the confirmed Russian sabotage attack on Liepzig had been successful.
Russia is apparently planning to step up its sabotage campaign in Europe after having successfully sunk a few boats in EU waters (Romania / Bulgaria - these sinkings have been in both international waters off the coast AND within their official territorial waters).
Economy:
Lots of debt. Much concern over the implications of this particularly with regards to AI and state debt in the US, UK, France and Japan (but not restricted to). Much money put into gold by China. Background of this bad given the approach of potentially multiple crisis.
France Moody's credit review: Due tomorrow 23rd Oct - expected to be not good especially in the current political climate in France
UK Budget: 28th October

They are all interconnected and one or many could tip us into abject chaos. Or not. The risks here are sky high. Of what? Take your pick.

What is this? How odd? Why not just follow what other countries already do. This is just not clear enough. Confusing.

I've just caught up on the previous threads. I've always been a bit of a prepper so already had power banks, lanterns. We have a wood burner so could light a fire for heating. Children have oodies and wool blankets. Have just bought everyone new slippers and slipper socks.

We live on a farm so main farmhouse would have a generator so in-laws would have power. We also have a nearby spring. I have a freezer full of meat from the farm which is good providing the power stays on. I've bought a camping stove one of the suitcase type and have heeded the warning on here about avoiding a large pan. I did buy some battery operated lightbulbs but they are pants so returning them. i picked up a 20 litre water bag. We are pretty well stocked for tins perhaps 4-5 days but perhaps should get more.

we definitely need more water I have about 17 litres which isn't enough for a family of 5. I'm also breastfeeding so need extra fluids. Think that's my main focus first and will expand from there. Going into town tomorrow for a baby class so will pick up some water. Hoping panic hasn't set in and there is water to buy. Think I'll also get bleach and perhaps some water purification tablets. Also want to get matches.

Did some halfterm baking with my 5 year old today and made a banana bread to freeze. Realised all of our baking supplies are low so will stock up on flour, sugar etc. Did consider if I should start making bread to ease the cost of food. I did go through a phase of doing it before I got pregnant as was concerned about processed food. I think half the problem is the uncertainty are we planning for food shortages or power shortages - probably a mix of both!

I did think about growing some winter veg to help with the rising food costs. Going to try onions and garlic and perhaps some winter salad. It all feels so bleak so growing something feels mildly proactive

Ok, so once again my young adult dc came back for a casual dinner and left with two shopping bags each half hiding behind their backs. We’ve once again been raided.

Wow. Just read those scripts. Somewhat chilling!

Let's hope we never hear the scripts!☝

I’m going to print those scripts and stash them away as part of my prep. Handy to be able to read and reread without terrifying the house.

But this is not new? It says published in December 2025?

And typically none of us even knew about it! Our govt does these things on the sly and doesn't let us know!

The most recent campaign is a rebrand/launch of the Dec 25 stuff, only advice that's really changed is the amount of water we should have

Is it not very odd?!

I have bought cavalo nero kale and courgette seeds today.
Both easy to grow and good producers.
The kale won't look out of place dotted around in flowerbeds, and, while the courgettes will take space you know you'll be getting plenty back.
I already had the foresight and prepping tendencies several years ago to plant apple, pear, plum,cherry and fig trees. Unfortunately I've never had the fig or pear fruit, and the few cherries are taken by birds - but I'm OK for apples and plums!
Hmmm - I think I may also order runner bean seeds, and grow them over my garden arch where the clematis has died, and a new fig to plant in a spot its more likely to fruit.

They did a really bad job getting the message out😂

Reading it now, yes it is, the fact we're not told about any of that. I find the UK is very backward in letting its citizens know what's going on. It's a Nanny state!

I’m not from the UK but to me it seems just so odd it’s published but not acknowledged.

Actually May 2024

Because people in the UK would ridicule it, call it fear-mongering and not take it seriously. There's a new thread on MN now where the OP says that the current government advice is only a ploy to distract people from tax raises in the new budget.....

Also love the idea of an apocalypse notebook. Think I'm going to write down key numbers mainly the Drs and relatives.And assemble all of our documents together.

And then other key information think the ratio of bleach to water for purification. We are so used to googling everything so lack of internet for any prolonged time would be hard.

I live on land that used to belong to the church. I have a feeling of £25 a year I still have to pay to the church! It's at the top of a hill.

Anyway.

Sina Toossi (senior fellow at the centre for international policy - based in Washington DC)
A potentially significant diplomatic development in Tehran. Could this lead to a breakthrough?

On the eve of Israel's elections, amid mounting reports of another major round of fighting with Iran, three of the region's most powerful security officials are converging on Tehran: Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir, and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalın.

It's a remarkable gathering, especially at this moment. The fact that these are military and intelligence chiefs, rather than foreign ministers, suggests the discussions are centered on hard security questions.

So what's going on?

There are differing interpretations in Iran. Some analysts believe the escalating Saudi–Yemeni conflict is a major focus. Others believe the three countries are trying to prevent another US–Iran war, or at least insulate themselves from its consequences.

There is also suspicion in some Iranian circles that the delegation is coming to pressure Tehran, possibly in coordination with Washington.

Yet, Iranian officials have struck a more welcoming tone.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei says the meeting was proposed by Pakistan's Asim Munir during his visit to Tehran last week, and that Iran agreed to host it. He has also emphasized Tehran's longstanding argument that regional security should be managed by regional countries themselves, rather than relying on outside powers.

Deputy SNSC Secretary Bagheri Kani has gone further, suggesting that Iran's experience during the recent wars could help lay the groundwork for a new regional security framework involving these countries.

One intriguing question is whether this could eventually open the door to some form of Iranian involvement in the "Mecca Pact", the security arrangement between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey. There is no indication yet that Iran has been invited to join, but the fact that its three participants are engaging Tehran together raises the possibility of a broader regional framework.

That is particularly interesting given how much the wars of 2025 and 2026 have changed the region's security calculations. Countries that once relied heavily on American protection have seen their own infrastructure become vulnerable, while the US security umbrella has not spared them the costs of war.

Iran has been advocating some version of regional security cooperation independent of the US for decades. Tehran now seems to believe the war has made its neighbors more receptive to that idea, and is looking to turn its newfound leverage into a more lasting role in the region's security arrangements.

Of course, we still don't know what the Saudi, Pakistani, and Turkish officials are actually bringing to the table. The Yemen conflict may be the immediate impetus, and there could well be an effort to convey warnings or demands to Tehran alongside proposals for de-escalation.

Still, it's hard to overstate how notable it is that these three senior officials are traveling to Tehran together at such a dangerous moment.

Whether this produces a breakthrough remains to be seen.

But the fact that such a meeting is taking place, with another major war potentially looming, is significant in itself.

Shifting Geopolitics minus US influence. The US betrayed Saudi Arabia and suddenly it's leaning on Turkey and Pakistan and talking to Iran on a day that Netanyahu was itching to bomb Iran into the ground.

Rumours that Trump has authorised the release of the last of the US strategic oil supplies.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/oct/26/donald-trump-policy-disaster-rural-america
How Trump lost Rural Red Belt America.

It's not new but the government definitely has been pushing it significantly harder in the last week after pushing it again over the summer.

It puts us in line with other European countries.

But I do think there's an overall feeling of something amiss or likely to happen too.

I sit up and take notes when the most prepared nation against disasters in the world starts saying similar:
FNN
Minister Hoso Issues "Emergency Request" to All Citizens: Prepare Food, Water, and Toilet Supplies

Japan. This is Japan's Disaster Prevention Minister. Apparently he is launching a new campaign on Nov 2 with the new Disaster Prevention Agency being launched. The campaign is to issue an emergency request to all citizens to stockpile at least 3 days (preferably 1 week) of food, water, and toilets at home. This is to prepare for potential major events like Nankai Trough quakes, not an imminent disaster.

Japans planning request:
Stockpile at Least 3 Days' Worth, Ideally "1 Week's Worth"
For food and drinking water, aim for amounts based on family size × 1 week, and start rolling stock (building reserves while consuming daily).

Prioritize Securing "Portable Toilets" Above All
In past disasters, the most serious issue has been toilets. Prepare for this with equal or greater priority than food or water.

First, Plan for "Sheltering in Place"
Efforts are underway between government and private sectors to improve evacuation shelter conditions (TKB: toilets, hot meals, beds), but if your home is safe, sheltering in place is the baseline. Don't forget to secure safety in your rooms, like anchoring furniture.

Except at this point I think everyone is really struggling with the idea that the whole western world is actively suddenly saying "prepare for disaster" at the same time.

Meanwhile Trump is saying ominous shit again:
“So, I wonder if I should say this. I’d like a little advice from my two people, my two big monsters. My two monsters are going to be the biggest stars in the country in a week.”
One of his big monsters is apparently Russ Vought who did a think tank which included talking of how to invoke the Insurrection Act and introduce martial law. He has the nickname of Shadow President.

Read his wiki for his political ideas.... He's one scary guy. I'd argue anyone who calls themselves a Christian Nationalist is (remember the US is supposed to have a separation of church and state too).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell_Vought

Meanwhile in Israel:
The Washington Post is reporting that Trump administration officials are secretly exploring a deal that could keep Benjamin Netanyahu in power even if he loses Tuesday’s Israeli election — by forming a unity government with rival Gadi Eisenkot.

Netanyahu has reportedly offered to abandon far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, pitching himself to Washington as its preferred partner for resuming military operations against Iran.

Then we have Haaretz, reporting that the head of the Mossad supports Prime Minister Netanyahu's call for attacks inside Iran, a position that contrasts with that of the Chief of Staff. So the head of Mossad is in direct conflict with the Head of the Army who just refused to carry out orders...

Meanwhile in Brazil:
Bolsonaro has apparently had his passport seized by Federal Police.

Elon isn't happy with the results of the Brazil election btw. Said the math doesn't add up.

Did a big shop today, bought extra of most of my store cupboard staples and also got batteries, matches, candles and 12 x 2 litres of water. Nowhere near enough, but it's a start.

Was tricky knowing what to say to the kids when they asked me what it was all for. Younger ones accepted when I said I just wanted to be prepared in case the stormy weather meant I couldn't get to the shops. Teenager asked directly was it because of the government message about stock piling, when I said yes her response was, "Yea, we're all cooked."

I couldn't argue with her...

One intriguing question is whether this could eventually open the door to some form of Iranian involvement in the "Mecca Pact", the security arrangement between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey. There is no indication yet that Iran has been invited to join, but the fact that its three participants are engaging Tehran together raises the possibility of a broader regional framework.

That is particularly interesting given how much the wars of 2025 and 2026 have changed the region's security calculations. Countries that once relied heavily on American protection have seen their own infrastructure become vulnerable, while the US security umbrella has not spared them the costs of war.

---

Based on the principles of lectures from Sarah C Paine, I'm not sure why or how Saudi would trust Iran. A country's primary enemy is generally the one threatening to blow you up, or actually lobbing missiles at you. For Saudi, that's Iran via the Houthis at the moment, and Iran actual earlier in the year.

Unless it's Iran negotiating from a position of strength via it's stranglehold of Hormuz and restrictions on the Bab el Mandeb. This pact got dubbed the "Muslim NATO" last year when it was announced (you should have seen the fan art on twitter) but then with the current hoo haaa with Houthis lobbing missiles at KSA, neither Turkey or Pakistan have stepped up for their Bros so... Well I don't know

The Government:
Prepare for 3 days.

Lucy Easthope:
Cumbria power cuts likely to be at least four days without power. Chief to residents, local authorities and the volunteer groups

I don't disagree. It smells of last resort diplomacy.

Fits in with give or take two standard deviations.

Many posts over the last week have shown that many people are boom or bust.

If you are preared for 3 days, you can probably manage 4 at a pinch.

There seem to be few people who have £2k+ stashes of spare cash and have suddenly decided to buy 6 months worth of food. But hopefully a few have been converted to the concept of a winter larder. At some point, natural selection has to come into play.

Newsnight
"It's gone absolutely mental... around a 650% increase"

Lincoln Miles who runs an online "preppers" store says sales of wind-up radios, water purifiers and power banks have "surged" after the government urged people to stock up for a crisis.