Crisis What Crisis? The One You Start To Wish You'd Stockpiled Like Your Crazy Friend? Continuation thread (3)

[RedToothBrush]

Previous threads
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/5576816-aibu-to-think-my-friend-is-overdoing-emergency-stockpiling?page=1
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5585259-crisis-what-crisis-is-my-friend-over-doing-the-stockpiling-and-am-i-too-continuation-thread-2?page=1

Continuation of the AIBU to think my friend is overdoing emergency stockpiling thread for discussion about the government advice to stockpile for an imminent emergency and what the heck that emergency might actually be.

Spoiler: it's more of a perfect storm of lots of factors coming together to potentially form one great clusterfuck from economic woes, global energy shortages (mainly diesel), potential food shortages, war and madmen to crazy weather patterns rather than a clear identifiable singular thread.
This is a practical thread and a bit of a handhold thread to make sense of events and how they may affect you. This is not an end of the world thread.

Remember an emergency can range from a temporary unexpected event to a much longer crisis but the underlying principles generally stay the same.

This is the official government information and advice, if you want further details on what the actual recommendations are:
https://prepare.campaign.gov.uk/get-prepared-for-emergencies/

ROUGH STATUS REPORT (as of 9am 22nd Oct - please note this isn't fully comprehensive, and is moving FAST)
Civil Unrest reported in:
France, Italy, Greece, Belgium, Albania, Indonesia - multi reasons, but largely due to economic pressures and the cost of living
Spain has had problems but these have temporarily stopped, probably due to significant weather related issues due to the Dana effect
More protests planned for this coming weekend
High Alert in the Middle East:
Netanyahu now committed to regime change in Iran, as he believes they are developing a nuke.
The US has pulled all Embassy Staff from Saudi Arabia and is hoping no one notices that they've ordered personal and families across the Gulf home and then seem to have lied that they have.
The Emir of Qatar has stated at their equivalent of the annual King's Speech at the Opening of Parliament that war was coming and to prepare for the worst scenarios. US pulling planes out of Qatar.
The Egyptian PM has warned the country of severe crisis ahead - given the nature of the country this is related to their alliance with Saudi Arabia and their reliance on the Suez Canal which the Yemeni rebels now control access to and their exposure to famine
Iran is saying if there is another attack, the gloves are off and they'll try and wipe out the middle east oil industry as they go down, as well as hitting critical civilian infrastructure.
Much movement / noise is similar to run up to the first US attacks this year. Debate over whether the attack will come before the Israeli Election or the US Midterms - possibly within 72hours - latest mood music suggests potentially this weekend. Seems to be shifting to a when not if.
Israel election: 27th Oct
Prices and Shortages:
Diesel needs no real reminder - we need it for haulage, mass transportation and farming, we are screwed without it. Fuel Emergency declarations in West Virgina, Kentucky, Michigan, Maryland, Arizona, Nebraska and Texas - typically allowing limited dyed diesel use for ag or commercial vehicles. Illinois and Missouri have also allowed by not under emergency orders. Less reported is the fertiliser shortage and knock on effect, poor yields this year and the effect of El Nino on next years, sulphur export bans and the blockade on Ukrainian and Russian wheat exports which are particularly crucial in feeding North Africa and the Middle East. This is liable to have significant impact on the UK with 6% rises in food already expected next year (and there's every reason to believe this will be higher especially with civil unrest all over the place). Reports of aviation fuel running low in some parts of Europe with emergency supplies (which can't last forever) being used.
El Nino:
See above about farming and also think of disasters - like the ones Spain is facing with flooding. Storm Austin is incoming and there is a weather warning for the South of England with power outages and flooding possible today/tomorrow.
The Internet:
PHP is 70% of the internet. Its got compromised so it can pretty much all be hacked. This is VERY BAD (in capital letters). Many websites offline whilst this is sorted including multiple government ones around the world.
Just AI generally - everything from putting everyone out of work to just hacking and killing us all. No Biggie.
Trump and the Mid Terms:
Trump is firmly losing his marbles. He's defected to Russia, can't stop rambling about men's arses, is waving at non-existent people, his team are known to be considering ways to impose martial law, he's getting heckled at Trump rallies by his own supporters, 83% of all voters think the biggest problem in the US now isn't the cost of living crisis but government corruption. He's being called a traitor by some of his fellow Reds. Mid Terms look a disaster and Trump probably won't accept them. He's reversing bills that Congress passed weeks ago by executive order.
Mid-Terms: 3rd Nov
Ukraine and Russia:
Ukraine facing massive problems still cos Elon has got the ump. Starlink isn't working at face enough speeds. They've bombed a shedload of Data Centres in Russia. This has killed off the Russian Internet and many Trump/Musk supporters in the process (one way or another) which screws up Twitter (and its value) for them. Ukraine is getting blamed for diesel shortages cos they refuse to stop hitting Russian refineries even though it has no choice now its been cut off by the US. Zelenskyy now says Trump isn't an ally. Trump wants Zelensky gone and thinks Putin is being reasonable and Ukraine doesn't want peace. Germany states it would have activated Art5 if the confirmed Russian sabotage attack on Liepzig had been successful.
Russia is apparently planning to step up its sabotage campaign in Europe after having successfully sunk a few boats in EU waters (Romania / Bulgaria - these sinkings have been in both international waters off the coast AND within their official territorial waters).
Economy:
Lots of debt. Much concern over the implications of this particularly with regards to AI and state debt in the US, UK, France and Japan (but not restricted to). Much money put into gold by China. Background of this bad given the approach of potentially multiple crisis.
France Moody's credit review: Due tomorrow 23rd Oct - expected to be not good especially in the current political climate in France
UK Budget: 28th October

They are all interconnected and one or many could tip us into abject chaos. Or not. The risks here are sky high. Of what? Take your pick.

Which is ridiculous considering the amount of places with flooding this week. We really need to get better at collecting it whenever there is the opportunity.

there is still a hosepipe ban in east sussex

Yes. And i went past the reservoir near the national trust place Standen last week and it looked very low. That was before the heavy rain though.

More scary than water shortages is sewage back up into houses following a cyber attack. I want to know what we can do to prevent that, that is literally my pet fear.

"escalation isn't always a sign things are going wrong"

The Economist explainer on why the uptick of rhetoric (Wes Streeting on the 1000 days to war thing, etc) may be part of efforts to spook Russia and China in to backing down

https://youtube.com/shorts/kqwoQVIMsPc?is=3Dt8zg39g20AK9y6

@Natsku - but isn’t the Finnish economy thriving as a result of all the investment following joining NATO? I mean that is how it would be sold in England. Inflows of investment being a good thing and if you look at Switzerland and you are a small country, people will leave you alone long term if you have all sorts of international critical infrastructure/money safe haven, so you become a long term safe haven and untouchable ultimately, which keeps the whole population safe despite warmongering between superpowers.

Its not investment though, its just using (and abusing) our land for their own gain, we aren't getting anything out of it except temporary jobs for construction. Investment would be investing in Finnish companies, not investing in their own companies in a new location.

On a personal level: keep your loo lid shut.

People have linked about the sandbags in the toilets. I’m planning on making our own if need be. Filling bags with earth and blocking the loo that way.

@Heyelpheyelp - and backing up into a sink? That can happen too, right? I was thinking more of installing some sort of back water valve that stops it being able to happen at all, if that is possible and legal.

It’s always the toilet that gets one ultimately just like the loo roll during Covid. If you have a house full of shit - that trumps everything else!

Still on a ban here our lowest reservoir is at 50% on below average with rain I think everyday for the next week.

Hormuz Report
BREAKING:

Israel reportedly suspends plans for further strikes on Iran in the immediate term, while preparing for possible joint military action with the US after the midterm elections.

According to CNN, Netanyahu pushed Trump to approve a joint strike before the elections, but Trump withheld approval.

The report also says Israeli military chief Eyal Zamir warned US General Dan Caine that an attack could disrupt Israel’s elections and potentially force their postponement.

"Trump withheld approval" doing a lot of heavy lifting here.

Hooooo boy

Hmm, did that!
Oh well, thanks anyway - hope it'll work for others!

Only one code worked for me too... Maybe they realised and scrapped being able to use them both together

One is saying it cannot be applied to my purchase, or is saying its not valid!

15multimor was the only one that wanted to work for me, I just stuck high price chocolate into the basket to test it before I did a proper shop. The other one said not valid.

I didn't end up doing a shop though but would have if both worked!!

Same here! I did discover though that most of the sewer network relies on gravity rather than pumps, so if your house isn’t in a street at the lowest point of the system, it’s apparently not that likely to be the first place affected if sewage starts backing up. Really hoping that's accurate. Sewage backing up should in theory also come out of any nearby inspection chamber first, if there is one your sewage goes through that's at a lower level than your lowest toilet bowl. It won't be like flooding where the water/sewage is high everywhere at once - it will find its own level and if it can spread out somewhere else at a lower level before it gets to you it will.

That's a lot of human waste and spread of disease in any scenario isn't it @srethoos. Doesn't bear thinking about, beyond getting one of those toilet bags and hoping for the best. Or more than one?? I am imagining the mother of all poonamis now! Excrement in the streets like in towns of the past.

Yes it's awful either way, although sewage in the garden is more survivable psychologically than sewage in the house (for me at least)!

In my exploring I found that the issue with a rolled up floodsax sack is that it might not stay wedged down there if it can't be kept under the rim. There's something called a floodkit that looks better but it's at least £150 and probably best left for people to buy who are actually facing floods now. The inflatable bulb thing might be the best bought-in option, or a rolled up towel might do something if weighted down, and a bin bag full of water is heavy, too. There doesn't seem to be a perfect just-in-case solution to have in the house now, for something that is probably very unlikely to happen to most people. Faith in gravity it is!

That is all good thinking @srethoos Appreciate it! Weighted down towels it is. Yy to leaving stuff for people currently flooded too

@Araminta1004 re loo backing up , silly question but that would only be downstairs loos surely ?

How will we know if this is likely to happen? Would it be if the water goes off? Thanks

Pumping stations don't work for long if the power goes off, hence the possible issues with sewage.