Crisis What Crisis? The One You Start To Wish You'd Stockpiled Like Your Crazy Friend? Continuation thread (3)

[RedToothBrush]

Previous threads
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/5576816-aibu-to-think-my-friend-is-overdoing-emergency-stockpiling?page=1
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5585259-crisis-what-crisis-is-my-friend-over-doing-the-stockpiling-and-am-i-too-continuation-thread-2?page=1

Continuation of the AIBU to think my friend is overdoing emergency stockpiling thread for discussion about the government advice to stockpile for an imminent emergency and what the heck that emergency might actually be.

Spoiler: it's more of a perfect storm of lots of factors coming together to potentially form one great clusterfuck from economic woes, global energy shortages (mainly diesel), potential food shortages, war and madmen to crazy weather patterns rather than a clear identifiable singular thread.
This is a practical thread and a bit of a handhold thread to make sense of events and how they may affect you. This is not an end of the world thread.

Remember an emergency can range from a temporary unexpected event to a much longer crisis but the underlying principles generally stay the same.

This is the official government information and advice, if you want further details on what the actual recommendations are:
https://prepare.campaign.gov.uk/get-prepared-for-emergencies/

ROUGH STATUS REPORT (as of 9am 22nd Oct - please note this isn't fully comprehensive, and is moving FAST)
Civil Unrest reported in:
France, Italy, Greece, Belgium, Albania, Indonesia - multi reasons, but largely due to economic pressures and the cost of living
Spain has had problems but these have temporarily stopped, probably due to significant weather related issues due to the Dana effect
More protests planned for this coming weekend
High Alert in the Middle East:
Netanyahu now committed to regime change in Iran, as he believes they are developing a nuke.
The US has pulled all Embassy Staff from Saudi Arabia and is hoping no one notices that they've ordered personal and families across the Gulf home and then seem to have lied that they have.
The Emir of Qatar has stated at their equivalent of the annual King's Speech at the Opening of Parliament that war was coming and to prepare for the worst scenarios. US pulling planes out of Qatar.
The Egyptian PM has warned the country of severe crisis ahead - given the nature of the country this is related to their alliance with Saudi Arabia and their reliance on the Suez Canal which the Yemeni rebels now control access to and their exposure to famine
Iran is saying if there is another attack, the gloves are off and they'll try and wipe out the middle east oil industry as they go down, as well as hitting critical civilian infrastructure.
Much movement / noise is similar to run up to the first US attacks this year. Debate over whether the attack will come before the Israeli Election or the US Midterms - possibly within 72hours - latest mood music suggests potentially this weekend. Seems to be shifting to a when not if.
Israel election: 27th Oct
Prices and Shortages:
Diesel needs no real reminder - we need it for haulage, mass transportation and farming, we are screwed without it. Fuel Emergency declarations in West Virgina, Kentucky, Michigan, Maryland, Arizona, Nebraska and Texas - typically allowing limited dyed diesel use for ag or commercial vehicles. Illinois and Missouri have also allowed by not under emergency orders. Less reported is the fertiliser shortage and knock on effect, poor yields this year and the effect of El Nino on next years, sulphur export bans and the blockade on Ukrainian and Russian wheat exports which are particularly crucial in feeding North Africa and the Middle East. This is liable to have significant impact on the UK with 6% rises in food already expected next year (and there's every reason to believe this will be higher especially with civil unrest all over the place). Reports of aviation fuel running low in some parts of Europe with emergency supplies (which can't last forever) being used.
El Nino:
See above about farming and also think of disasters - like the ones Spain is facing with flooding. Storm Austin is incoming and there is a weather warning for the South of England with power outages and flooding possible today/tomorrow.
The Internet:
PHP is 70% of the internet. Its got compromised so it can pretty much all be hacked. This is VERY BAD (in capital letters). Many websites offline whilst this is sorted including multiple government ones around the world.
Just AI generally - everything from putting everyone out of work to just hacking and killing us all. No Biggie.
Trump and the Mid Terms:
Trump is firmly losing his marbles. He's defected to Russia, can't stop rambling about men's arses, is waving at non-existent people, his team are known to be considering ways to impose martial law, he's getting heckled at Trump rallies by his own supporters, 83% of all voters think the biggest problem in the US now isn't the cost of living crisis but government corruption. He's being called a traitor by some of his fellow Reds. Mid Terms look a disaster and Trump probably won't accept them. He's reversing bills that Congress passed weeks ago by executive order.
Mid-Terms: 3rd Nov
Ukraine and Russia:
Ukraine facing massive problems still cos Elon has got the ump. Starlink isn't working at face enough speeds. They've bombed a shedload of Data Centres in Russia. This has killed off the Russian Internet and many Trump/Musk supporters in the process (one way or another) which screws up Twitter (and its value) for them. Ukraine is getting blamed for diesel shortages cos they refuse to stop hitting Russian refineries even though it has no choice now its been cut off by the US. Zelenskyy now says Trump isn't an ally. Trump wants Zelensky gone and thinks Putin is being reasonable and Ukraine doesn't want peace. Germany states it would have activated Art5 if the confirmed Russian sabotage attack on Liepzig had been successful.
Russia is apparently planning to step up its sabotage campaign in Europe after having successfully sunk a few boats in EU waters (Romania / Bulgaria - these sinkings have been in both international waters off the coast AND within their official territorial waters).
Economy:
Lots of debt. Much concern over the implications of this particularly with regards to AI and state debt in the US, UK, France and Japan (but not restricted to). Much money put into gold by China. Background of this bad given the approach of potentially multiple crisis.
France Moody's credit review: Due tomorrow 23rd Oct - expected to be not good especially in the current political climate in France
UK Budget: 28th October

They are all interconnected and one or many could tip us into abject chaos. Or not. The risks here are sky high. Of what? Take your pick.

Brits are their own worst enemy at times.

Not on this thread though. I’ve learnt so much.

Yes that's a bonus! I can see this thread series lasting a long time.

Listening in to this podcast re the 2030 war idea, which is live now: The people taking part are all preppers.

Primula on Rita crackers is a top notch ambient stored snack, I highly recommend it and am a big fan of the chive one. It’s my guilty pleasure when I’m watching a movie

Following

Crazy shit seems to be happening in Israel.

Netanyahu put a picture on social media of a nuclear bomb going off. He reportedly also talked about how the US would stop the aid it gives to protect Israel for military support.

The latter possibly has some merit if Trump loses the midterms because there will be more questions asked of the Trump administration and Kushner in particular.

But remember that window of time in which I said Netanyahu had if he wanted to stick before the election to try and improve his election chances or to delay them completely - before the close of 26th. Well that's rapidly closing.

Netanyahu has indicated that he does want to escalate the war. But he hasn't yet. It's getting tight for him to do so.

Well... The rumour circulating in Israel now is that the Israeli chief of Staff has had a big argument with Netanyahu and is refusing orders and is protecting the army. Israeli Channel 12 is carrying the story which is huge in itself.

The suggestion seems to be that the Chief of Staff has reached the conclusion that Netanyahu is making this decision based on political motivations not security or military ones. This is on the brink of a military coup against Netanyahu.

It's difficult for anyone to assess the validity of this claim, but for a news channel to be carrying the story is in itself failing significant. There's no indication of how this rumour alone might affect the election either.

This story is clearly developing still and is significant.

Meanwhile in Serbia, following days of protests from students who matched across the country to Belgrade, the sitting pro Russian President Vuvic has conceded to the Student List movement. He has done so very early suggesting it's decisive. What this means in practice is unclear. Younger people have tended to be more pro EU than Russia with the population as a whole generally split roughly in half. So this could be a generational tipping point. (And this may have implications for the rest of Europe too).

Brazil's election seems a lot tighter. Lula has just declared victory over Bolsonaro. But it's almost 50-50. The polls were ordered to stay open and extra two hours due to problems on the trains. This in itself may lead to problems. Lula had been leading the polls decisively until a few weeks ago. Then it weirdly changed to Bolsonaro leading significantly. Then Lula seems to have clawed it back. The result may end up challenged.

But keeping Bolsonaro out will be a blow to Trump...

https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-unprecedented-confrontation-idf-chief-said-resisting-military-action-tied-to-iran-ordered-by-pm/amp/

Here the Times of Israeli with that Netanyahu story.

Meanwhile in the US Trump has rolled out Nicki Minaj and I quote her "beautiful ass" to drum up votes for the Republicans.

Nicki Minaj is not eligible to vote in the US. She's not a citizen.

The WSJ is running the story that the US is considering endorsing Viktor Orbán for UN Secretary-General and is hoping that he will be adopted as the candidate of choice by Russia and China too.

Yes THAT Viktor Orbán

Reports that there has been an increase in Storm Shadow attacks by Ukraine following the US turning traitor on them. This ramps up tension between Russia and Europe. Noting the threats made by Russia to Germany yesterday.

Apparently Netanyahus social media meltdown with nuke images is concerning the Whitehouse who fear Iran might miscalculate What's happening...

Oh and Elon Musk is openly saying that AI companies are facing a credit crunch with lenders no longer wishing to lend to companies which don't have revenue independent of data centres.

I'll note something at this point - data centres are energy monsters. It's not a huge surprise to see this happen in the context of an energy crisis. DH has actually been saying for months that the problem AI is going to have is over the energy to keep it going. The US lacks the energy infrastructure to keep momentum going at the rate the industry has been growing so there was always likely a brake here. The implications of this aren't entirely obvious though. But Musk isn't happy.

Musk saying this a few days before the Midterms is an interesting move though. There may be implications for the financial markets.

There's already mutterings about the Looming Market Crash as it is. Lots of people are expecting it, which seems to make it a greater likelihood (self fulfilling prophecy).

I suppose polymarket or Kalshi would be having bets placed on them which might indicate something

Data centres needing huge amounts of energy is why they are coming to Finland now - cheap reliable energy, and destroying our forests and waterways and breaking the law, fully expecting to get away with a slap on the wrist. It makes me so mad. And there's plans to build one just a few hundred metres from my house

I checked how early I pick up my next prescription for my thyroid meds and its actually 20 days early so I can easily build a decent buffer if I always remember to pick up early.

if it helps anybody Morrisons at Amazon are doing £40 off a £60 shop for existing prime members. I just got a ton of mutti toms and Passat, pasta, uht, tinned veg etc to buffer my supplies for over winter. They also sell tea lights!! I’ll add the codes in photos as you can stack both of them AND you can get a discount on your next shop to.

I am on holiday and not feeling the WW3 vibe much. Staying with family and all I saw in the news in Switzerland is that there is demand for a train from Zurich to London. And UBS threatening to relocate. I mean why would they though given what is going on globally, even if it’s more expensive to stay. I would just pay up. The Swiss know how to govern and protect.

Regarding data centres, I am sure there was one planned in York -Drax that was an interesting rejection because it was at least claiming to be carbon neutral. We need a plan to do that in a sustainable way.
All I can see from our government currently is preparing us for more defence spending in the budget. That was my reading of most of the scaremongering. And a bit of attention seeking from Wes Streeting, a bit of a personality. Ultimately though people can’t rely on governments too much and need basic resilience and survival skills. The nanny state concept being dead and run out of funds isn’t new news.

@natsku - don’t you also need data centres for drones to defend from the Russians ultimately? I thought you are right next door and aren’t the Finns scared of the Russians?

Did you use these in a particular order? It wont let me use the second code.

I can't get either code accepted 😪

@natsku - don’t you also need data centres for drones to defend from the Russians ultimately? I thought you are right next door and aren’t the Finns scared of the Russians

The data centres being built aren't for the Finns to use, for our own purposes, but for companies like Google. There is zero benefit beyond a smattering of tax that companies like Google will probably get out of anyway and a hell of a lot of downsides.

Yes I did, it worked for me fine and the first photo is of my actual order this morning

Maybe it's dependent on things like whether you've ordered before or something

This is a twitter account I've followed for more than a decade and I think it's reasonable and reliable:

Earlier today Lieberman, a Netanyahu rival and former Defense Minister, formally asked the AG to launch a criminal investigation for treason against Netanyahu. "The attempt to drag the State of Israel into war on the eve of elections, together with the willingness to sacrifice IDF soldiers solely due to fear of losing the elections, constitutes treason against the state, its security, and the IDF soldiers."

@FindingMeno. You specifically have to go to the Morrison page on Amazon, I hope you get it sorted! If not Asda are doing 50% off £60 orders for new customers

Steven Swinford (Times Political Correspondent)
Ministers have been secretly warned that some English reservoirs are at risk of running dry, hitting water supplies to homes in the run-up to Christmas

The government’s emergency committee, known as Cobra, is meeting up to twice a week to discuss the situation in the southwest of England and Sussex

A secret “reasonable worst-case scenario” was drawn up, anticipating that several reservoirs’ water stocks could fall to 0 per cent — dubbed “day zero” — within weeks

Officials warned that without action, supplies to some homes could be affected, along with disruption to the construction of a nuclear power station and operations at a prison

Wimbleball reservoir, which supplies more than 400,000 people in Somerset, has 13 per cent of its capacity, while Ardingly, which serves 280,000 customers across West Sussex, is at 17 per cent

Ministers battling to avoid reservoirs running dry by Christmas