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Ukraine Invasion - Part 62

520 replies

MagicFox · 05/08/2026 07:18

Thanks as always to everybody consistently posting and keeping us all up to date 🇺🇦

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ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 30/09/2026 15:38

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇺🇸🇷🇺The US has proposed that Russia ease sanctions in exchange for the release of political prisoners, The Atlantic reports.
According to the publication, Trump agreed. In this way, Trump wants to restore Russia's position in the global economy and expand negotiations with the Kremlin on deals involving Russian oil, diesel, rare earth minerals, and other goods.
The release of political prisoners could also serve as an argument in favor of Trump receiving the Nobel Peace Prize.
This strategy was previously "tested" on Belarus. In September, Belarus released 25 political prisoners in exchange for the US agreeing to lift sanctions on two Belarusian companies.

The US plans to organize a meeting with representatives of Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi next month to discuss a limited ceasefire, The Atlantic reports.
If an agreement is reached, it could obligate the sides not to strike energy infrastructure, including power plants and oil refineries. With Egypt's mediation, an arrangement could be adopted to refrain from striking cargo vessels in the Black Sea.
The Americans are also striving to organize a meeting between US President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and Putin as soon as possible.

The Russians struck the Trypillia Thermal Power Plant. The strike damaged generating equipment, the press service reported.
Meanwhile, in the Kyiv region, the number of injured has risen to four.
The Russians also struck Novovorontsovka in the Kherson region — a woman was injured.

Hasid Yonatan Karlinsky, who was mobilized into the Ukrainian Armed Forces when he came for Rosh Hashanah, will serve as a military doctor in Odesa.
The medical facility where he will serve is located near the local Jewish community in Odesa. This was facilitated by the intervention of the chief rabbi of southern Ukraine, Avraham Wolf, who spoke with Ukrainian officials, who then assigned the Hasid to serve in Odesa.
At his place of service, the man will be provided with kosher food and given access to a synagogue. Before this, he had spent several weeks fearing he might be sent to a combat zone near Kharkiv.
▪️The 49-year-old man was mobilized while returning from Rosh Hashanah to Israel. The State Border Guard Service explained that, in addition to Israeli citizenship, the man also holds Ukrainian citizenship.

Ukraine Invasion - Part 62
MissConductUS · 30/09/2026 21:00

Operation Vivaldi is fueling Russian ultranationalist milblogger discourse about how the pervasive culture of lying within the Russian military is harming Russian forces and facilitating Ukrainian successes in the Lyman direction.

It's called Vranyo in Russian. Everyone knows that everyone else is lying about everything. I first studied it as an officer candidate. I don't think it's possible to change in less than a generation. If someone told the truth, everyone else would assume that they were lying.

Vranyo - In Russian culture, vranyo is a form of institutionally lying, which undermines the performance of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine.

Vranyo | Militaire Spectator

https://militairespectator.nl/artikelen/vranyo

DdraigGoch · 30/09/2026 21:34

MissConductUS · 30/09/2026 21:00

Operation Vivaldi is fueling Russian ultranationalist milblogger discourse about how the pervasive culture of lying within the Russian military is harming Russian forces and facilitating Ukrainian successes in the Lyman direction.

It's called Vranyo in Russian. Everyone knows that everyone else is lying about everything. I first studied it as an officer candidate. I don't think it's possible to change in less than a generation. If someone told the truth, everyone else would assume that they were lying.

Vranyo - In Russian culture, vranyo is a form of institutionally lying, which undermines the performance of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine.

What does Putin believe though?

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 30/09/2026 22:21

MissConductUS · 30/09/2026 21:00

Operation Vivaldi is fueling Russian ultranationalist milblogger discourse about how the pervasive culture of lying within the Russian military is harming Russian forces and facilitating Ukrainian successes in the Lyman direction.

It's called Vranyo in Russian. Everyone knows that everyone else is lying about everything. I first studied it as an officer candidate. I don't think it's possible to change in less than a generation. If someone told the truth, everyone else would assume that they were lying.

Vranyo - In Russian culture, vranyo is a form of institutionally lying, which undermines the performance of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine.

The blame culture would have to shift towards a "this went wrong, why, how do we adapt and improve" culture before vranyo could disappear. Failure seems to be very harshly punished, no matter the reason (from the information we are given).

MissConductUS · 30/09/2026 22:32

DdraigGoch · 30/09/2026 21:34

What does Putin believe though?

Good question. He knows that everyone is lying, but not about what or how much. Or what realities are being hidden.

He has multiple sources of information that he uses to triangulate where the truth is. But the system encourages optimism bias because it's so effective at filtering out bad news.

That's why it takes attacks on Russian infrastructure and queues for petrol to break through the self deception.

MissConductUS · 30/09/2026 22:39

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 30/09/2026 22:21

The blame culture would have to shift towards a "this went wrong, why, how do we adapt and improve" culture before vranyo could disappear. Failure seems to be very harshly punished, no matter the reason (from the information we are given).

Correct. Covering up failure by lying about it also has a cascading negative effect on the battlefield. You can't call in artillery strikes on a village that you've reported as being under Russian control.

blueshoes · 30/09/2026 23:46

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-29-2026/

Key Takeaways

  1. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues attempts to falsely assert control over settlements in the Lyman direction that Ukrainian forces liberated during Operation Vivaldi.
  2. The Russian MoD’s continuous denial of Ukrainian successes in Operation Vivaldi, despite overwhelming evidence, continues to fuel Russian ultranationalist and milblogger criticism of the Russian military’s pervasive culture of lying.
  3. The Kremlin reportedly plans to significantly increase defense spending in 2027 as Russian attempts to raise public revenues have failed to offset rising debt and deficit estimates.
  4. Russian President Vladimir Putin held several meetings with senior Russian officials on September 28 to present the State Duma election results as an endorsement of Putin’s policies and continued war effort in Ukraine.
  5. Estonian officials attributed the August 15 arson attack against the Milrem Robotics defense company in Tallinn, Estonia, to the Russian Federation.
  6. Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to marginally increase the authorized end-strength of the Russian Armed Forces as part of ongoing Russian military reforms.
  7. A Russian Tu-95MS strategic bomber crashed near Krasnoyarovo, Amur Oblast, on September 29, likely after experiencing serious technical problems, possibly an onboard fuel explosion.
  8. Ukrainian forces likely conducted a strike against Russian logistics infrastructure along the Russian-Belarusian international border on September 28 to 29. Russia launched one Zircon/Onyx anti-ship missile, two Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles, and 152 drones against Ukraine overnight.
  9. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kupyansk direction and in northern Kharkiv Oblast, and Russian forces recently advanced in the Fortress Belt Outer Encirclement Effort.
blueshoes · 01/10/2026 00:50

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-30-2026/

Key Takeaways

  1. Russia conducted a massive combined drone and missile strike against Ukraine on the night of September 29 to 30, primarily targeting energy infrastructure in Kyiv City and marking the beginning of Russia’s strike campaign aimed at degrading Ukraine’s energy security ahead of Winter 2026-2027 and forcing Ukraine to capitulate.
  2. Russia notably began its Winter 2026-2027 strike campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure ahead of Ukraine’s heating season, as Russian President Vladimir Putin likely recently adopted a modified theory of victory that relies on Russia’s long-range strike campaign to force Ukraine to surrender over Winter 2026-2027.
  3. A likely Russian drone violated Moldovan airspace and crashed near Hirbovat, Anenii Noi, on the morning of September 30.
  4. The Kremlin is signaling its intention to use the seizure of assets belonging to European companies operating in Russia and to hold such companies’ assets hostage in order to coerce European states into reconsidering their sanctions policies against Russia.
  5. Ukrainian forces recently advanced north of Sumy City.
  6. Russian forces launched an unspecified number of Zircon or Onyx anti-ship cruise missiles, an unspecified number of Iskander-M or S-400 ballistic missiles, and 188 drones against Ukraine overnight on September 29 to 30; and 285 drones, an unspecified number of ballistic missiles, and several Banderol or Dan-T loitering munitions during the day on September 30.
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 01/10/2026 15:16

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Update: Russia attacks Kyiv for over 20 hours in single day.
Air raid sirens blared over Kyiv for 20 hours and 44 minutes on Sept. 30, one of the longest sustained attacks the capital has faced since the start of the full-scale war.
The strikes killed three people and injured seven others in Kyiv. In the surrounding region, a child was killed and one person injured.

⚡️Russian drones strike key Kyiv bridge linking eastern, western banks of city
Two Russian drones struck near the supports of Kyiv's Southern Bridge on Oct. 1, disrupting a key metro link between the city's eastern and western banks, Mayor Vitali Klitschko said.

⚡️Russian troop losses rose 46% since January, hit 2026 high in September, Ukraine says
Russian forces suffered an estimated 46,230 personnel losses in September, the highest monthly figure recorded by Ukraine so far in 2026, Ukraine's General Staff said on Oct. 1.

⚡️Update: Russian drones hit Kyiv's Southern Bridge as cars, metro train cross
The attack took place at around 11:30 a.m. local time, as cars and a metro train continued to cross the bridge. Videos began appearing on social media around the same time, showing a fire on the bridge and a column of smoke rising above it.

⚡️Russia threatens European arms factories supplying Ukraine, says they are 'not safe'.
"Weapons factories in European countries that produce arms for Ukraine are potential military targets for Russia," Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said.

⚡️Ukraine unveils new Mavic alternative, but Chinese dependence persists.
According to Vyriy, the new Slavic drone has a tactical operating range of up to 30 kilometers, approximately twice that of a Chinese-made Mavic.

⚡️ Russia strikes Ukrainian power pylon with steel-cutting drone for 1st time, Zelensky's adviser says.
The warhead was designed to destroy high-voltage pylons and steel bridges and contains a 40-kilogram main charge and four additional destructive modules, Serhii Beskrestnov said.

⚡️Estonia bans transit of Russian, Belarusian grain
"Russia attacks Ukrainian ports, blocks Ukraine's grain exports, and then looks for new routes for its own grain," Tsahkna said on X. "Estonia will not provide one."

⚡️UK passes new Russia sanctions, but with LNG loophole for Asian allies
The U.K. unveiled a new package of 31 sanctions against Russia on Oct. 1, but also prolonged liquefied natural gas (LNG) licenses that facilitate Japan and South Korea's continued import of Russian fossil fuels.

⚡️Half of Ukrainians say government isn't doing enough to secure EU membership, poll shows
Asked what is holding Ukraine back from EU membership, 32% cited corruption in central government bodies. Another 29% said the EU or some of its member states are unwilling to accept Ukraine.

⚡️ Lviv court sentences 20-year-old killer of ex-lawmaker Iryna Farion to life in prison.
The 60-year-old Farion was a prolific figure in Ukraine who devoted her life to popularizing and defending the Ukrainian language and culture. She was shot in the head near her home on July 19, 2024.

The way out of Ukraine's deadlock with Magyar
Ukrainian officials had looked for a reset with Budapest after Viktor Orban's defeat. Instead, Hungary's new prime minister, Peter Magyar, has taken a hard line of his own.
After a promising start, Budapest is yet again stalling Kyiv's EU bid until Ukraine puts into effect earlier agreements on the rights of its roughly 80,000-strong Hungarian community.
As the standoff has dragged on, Magyar has raised the stakes: he skipped the Ukraine-hosted Carpathian summit, traded barbs with Ukrainian officials online, and flatly rejected a deal to deepen cross-border energy cooperation.
Yet there are fundamental differences between Hungary's current leader and his pro-Kremlin predecessor.

⚡️Russian attacks kill at least 6, injure 38 across Ukraine amid another overnight drone barrage nationwide
The Air Force said Russia attacked Ukraine with 107 drones, including Shahed-type drones, Gerbera drones, and decoys. Sixty-three of the drones were jet-powered.

⚡️Russian attacks kill at least 6, injure 38 across Ukraine amid another overnight drone barrage nationwide
The Air Force said Russia attacked Ukraine with 107 drones, including Shahed-type drones, Gerbera drones, and decoys. Sixty-three of the drones were jet-powered.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social
⚡️ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE — OCT 1, 2026
■ 10th-highest daily casualties and September’s total the highest this year so far
■ Land-based equipment losses 12% above average, driven by 524 unarmored vehicles
■ Overnight 🇷🇺 attacks: 81% drone interception rate; 15 locations hit or affected by debris
Territorial change: 15.5 km² 🇺🇦 net gain for the week to 29 Sep according to DeepState
■ 320 🇺🇦 strike drones reported

Russia threatens European arms factories supplying Ukraine, says they are 'not safe'

"Weapons factories in European countries that produce arms for Ukraine are potential military targets for Russia," Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said.

https://kyivindependent.com/russia-threatens-european-arms-factories-supplying-ukraine/

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 01/10/2026 15:43

rats

Ukraine Invasion - Part 62
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 01/10/2026 15:49

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Over three phases of the “Vivaldi” operation, Ukraine’s Defense Forces thwarted Russian plans to break through to the rear of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration and stabilized the situation in this sector of the front.
Russia suffered more than 5,000 casualties, killed and wounded, while another 250 Russian soldiers were added to Ukraine’s prisoner exchange pool. Since the start of the offensive, Ukraine has reclaimed a total of 176 square kilometers of territory, Zelenskyy said.
“Today, we discussed plans for the fourth phase of active operations. A highly promising direction right now is replacing our soldiers with ground-based robotic systems wherever possible.
This specific element enabled us to achieve a great deal during ‘Vivaldi.’ We will scale this up so that, as often as possible, drones — rather than soldiers — carry out the most dangerous tasks on the front line,” Zelenskyy said.

❗️Russia attacked the Institute for Nuclear Research in Kyiv, which houses the WWR-M research reactor, the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate reported.
The attack occurred yesterday. Radiation levels remain normal

⚡️PACE unanimously declared Russia’s newly formed State Duma illegitimate.
All 59 PACE members present voted in favor of the decision, Ukrainian MP and PACE member Yevheniia Kravchuk reported.
The resolution stated that Russia’s parliamentary elections did not meet the criteria for a free and fair expression of the will of the people, and therefore the results cannot be considered democratic.

The Czech Republic is prepared to fulfill its NATO obligations if Russia attacks one of the Baltic states, Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš said in an interview with Czech news outlet Deník. [...]
Babiš’s government has halted Czech participation in funding military aid to Ukraine and refused to join EU and NATO mechanisms for financing and providing military support to Kyiv. During his 2023 presidential campaign, he also faced criticism after saying he would not send Czech troops to fight for allies.
Earlier this month, Babiš said Russia is waging a hybrid war against the Czech Republic, without providing details, and that Czech intelligence services are closely monitoring the threat.

Ukraine’s Defense Forces struck a target in the Black Sea and several facilities in Russia, President Zelenskyy said.
According to Zelenskyy, Ukrainian forces targeted a launch and storage site for strike drones in the Oryol region, an oil facility in the Samara region, and a supply depot for Russian occupation forces in the Bryansk region.

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said it is “quite likely” that Europe will be able to build good relations with Russia in the future.
Speaking to members of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe in Strasbourg on September 29, Wadephul said Europe has no grievances against Russia or the Russian people, but has “a serious problem with the current Russian regime, which unleashed and is waging this illegal war of aggression.”
“For the time being—and likely in the near future—European security must be built not with Russia, but against Russia,” DW quoted Wadephul as saying.
At the same time, he said Europe should already define the future format of its relations with Russia and that this would require negotiations. He added that there are currently signs that such talks could begin soon.
Wadephul also urged Europe not to allow the US to “maintain a monopoly on negotiations” over ending Russia’s war against Ukraine. [...]
The German foreign minister also said that during the UN General Assembly in New York, he held talks with European and Asian counterparts and expressed confidence that ministers from at least two more countries would soon announce arms deliveries to Ukraine.

Lithuania’s government has approved a bill banning Russian and Belarusian citizens from purchasing real estate near sites of strategic importance, LRT reports.
The restrictions would also apply to individuals holding valid residence permits but would not cover property acquired through inheritance.
Similar restrictions are already in place in Latvia and Finland, while Estonia is planning to introduce a comparable ban.
According to data from Lithuania’s Central Register from May, 5,104 Russian citizens and 2,781 Belarusian citizens holding temporary or permanent residence permits have purchased real estate in Lithuania, including properties near strategically important sites.
In June, Latvia’s parliament approved restrictions on issuing residence permits to Russian and Belarusian citizens.

🇺🇦🇺🇿 Ukraine and Uzbekistan have abolished the permit system for bilateral and transit road freight transport.
[...]According to Ukraine’s Ministry, the new rules eliminate quotas and additional administrative procedures for carriers, simplifying logistics and trade between the two countries.
Trade turnover between Ukraine and Uzbekistan reached about $315 million in 2025, up 14% from the previous year.
Ukraine now has a liberalized freight transport regime with 38 countries, including EU member states.

Ukrainian defense company Frontline Robotics has unveiled Frodo, a six-wheeled unmanned ground vehicle designed for logistics, evacuation, and combat missions, Militarnyi reported on September 30.
https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/forget-mordor-ukraines-frodo-ground-robot-heads-into-battle-with-a-150-km-range-22998

Forget Mordor—Ukraine’s Frodo Ground Robot Heads Into Battle With a 150-Km Range

Frontline Robotics Frodo, a 6x6 unmanned ground vehicle, offers a 150-km range and up to 400 kg payload for Ukrainian military use.

https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/forget-mordor-ukraines-frodo-ground-robot-heads-into-battle-with-a-150-km-range-22998

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 01/10/2026 16:13

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Ukraine marks the Day of Defenders of Ukraine on Oct. 1, honoring the men and women who have defended the country amid Russia’s ongoing war.
President Volodymyr Zelensky marked the day from the front line in the Lyman sector, where he had met with Ukrainian troops and commanders ahead of the holiday.
Rather than recording his address at one of Kyiv’s historic landmarks, Zelensky said he chose a frontline command post because these less visible locations are where Ukraine’s history is being written.

Russia lost 46,230 troops in September — its highest monthly total this year, according to Ukraine’s General Staff.
As Moscow’s 2026 losses reach 326,900, Russia is preparing to send about 120,000 new conscripts to military units this autumn.

Russia is seeking to cripple Kyiv before winter through coordinated air strikes, sabotage and disinformation designed to turn daily disruption into political unrest.
The campaign is expected to peak in November, The Economist reported, citing senior Ukrainian officials.

Ukraine adjusted its defenses against Russian strikes on Kyiv's critical infrastructure, including the Pivdennyi Bridge, President Zelensky said.
He also ordered an urgent review of partner supplies of F-16 ammunition and air defense missiles.

Ukraine is in talks to buy hundreds of thousands of 20mm cannon rounds for its F-16s to shoot down Russian jet-powered attack drones.
F-16 Vulcan cannons offer an accessible alternative to scarce guided air-to-air missiles.

The Pentagon has obligated 99.8% of the $400 million Congress approved for Ukraine, US Senator Chris Coons said on Tuesday, Sept. 29, a day before the funds were set to expire.
The package reportedly includes no Patriot interceptors, which Kyiv urgently needs.

Ukrainian troops from the 20th K-2 Drone Brigade risked enemy fire to deliver humanitarian aid to elderly residents in frontline Lyman.
Officials emphasized Kyiv's commitment to supporting citizens as Moscow demands the entire Donbas.

Lockheed Martin is in advanced talks to produce PAC-3 Patriot interceptors outside the US as global demand triples.
The company is also developing autonomous helicopters, a microwave “drone killer” and a lower-cost interceptor as Ukraine pushes for domestic Patriot missile production.

The UAE government has extensively used Aviacon Zitotrans, a sanctioned Russian cargo airline linked to Moscow’s mercenary forces, over the past year, a Defense News investigation found.
The airline is part of Russia’s “shadow” aviation network and has been sanctioned by the US and other Western governments.

Ukrainian forces struck a Russian vessel in the Black Sea, a launch and storage site for attack drones in the Oryol region, an oil facility in the Samara region, and a Russian military supply depot in the Bryansk region, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

ANALYSIS: A Russian officer wanted by Ukraine for Bucha war crimes has taken a seat in the State Duma alongside 45 other invasion veterans.
Nursultan Mussagaleev joins parliament as Moscow integrates war participants into politics.

US President Donald Trump again blamed Ukraine for rising diesel prices in the United States, arguing that the problem is driven more by Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries than by the war in the Middle East.

ANALYSIS: Despite deliberate Russian strikes on data centers, Ukraine’s internet network remains resilient.
Deep decentralization, National Roaming, and fast backups ensure taking down connectivity is virtually impossible.

The war is coming home to Russia. Caolan Robertson joins Kyiv Post’s Jason Jay Smart to examine the pressure building inside Russia — and what happens when a country can no longer shield its people from the war it started.
Watch the full interview on the Kyiv Post website and YouTube.

Kyiv’s Parkovyi data center — a commercial facility hosting clients’ digital infrastructure — has been forced to cease operations following a Russian strike on Sept. 29, the company said.
The strike caused critical damage, making it impossible to restore services at the location.

Russia struck a school in Kyiv’s Solomianskyi district with a drone on Oct. 1, sparking a fire while children sheltered during an air raid alert.
Russian forces also hit warehouse facilities in the same district, while another drone struck a non-residential complex in Pecherskyi district. No casualties had been reported at the time of publication.
The attacks followed a day of Russian strikes on Kyiv that killed three people and injured seven others.

Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev warned that Putin still holds a “nuclear trump card” as Moscow threatens to use nuclear weapons if NATO isolates Kaliningrad.

Two drone strikes hit the area near the supports of Kyiv’s South Bridge, prompting authorities to suspend metro and surface transport.
Municipal specialists are inspecting the structure, while unverified footage circulating online shows fires and drone debris.

A Ukrainian pilot was killed in combat today after his MiG-29 fighter jet was shot down by a Russian missile.
He had been carrying out missile and bomb strikes against Russian forces on one of the front-line sectors. The pilot ejected but, tragically, did not survive.

Ukraine Invasion - Part 62
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 01/10/2026 16:21

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Latvia's pro-Ukrainian prime minister leads in polls ahead of Saturday's elections, Reuters reports.
Andris Kulbergs' party, the "United List," is supported by 14.4% of voters, according to an SKDS/LSM poll conducted from September 4–16. Reuters writes that the party is unlikely to win an absolute majority, so Kulbergs will have to form a coalition.
In total, seven out of 14 parties are clearing the 5% threshold for the 100-seat Saeima. At the same time, about a third of respondents have not yet decided or do not plan to vote.

⚡️More than half of Ukraine's F-16s are non-operational due to maintenance delays in Belgium, WSJ sources say.
Sources say that at the current pace of use and repair, Ukraine could be left without the remaining aircraft by the end of the year.
One of the reasons for the delays may be a shortage of certain components, and aircraft used in combat conditions may require more frequent maintenance.
▪️F-16s require scheduled technical inspection after 300 flight hours; the inspection usually takes up to 40 weeks. Ukrainian F-16s are to be serviced by the Belgian company Sabena Aerospace Engineering, with which the US signed a contract worth up to $235.5 million.

⚡️On October 1, power outage schedules will be introduced in certain regions.
For industry and business, they will be in effect from 08:00 to 21:00; for other users — from 08:00 to 11:00 and from 16:00 to 21:00.

Media have reported an assassination attempt on Fire Point co-owner Denys Shtilerman.
Israeli journalist Serhiy Auslender, citing sources, wrote that the attack occurred near Kyiv. According to him, Shtilerman sustained minor injuries, his bodyguard was killed, and the attackers were eliminated.
Shtilerman himself stated that rumors of his death or the death of his bodyguards are somewhat exaggerated. He did not confirm the fact of the attack but also did not deny it.

⚡️Ukraine wants to purchase tens of thousands of rounds for F-16s to shoot down Russian jet-powered drones, Bloomberg reports, citing sources.
Kyiv is already negotiating with several European countries and manufacturers for 20-mm rounds for the fighters' cannons.
According to the publication, neutralizing one drone may require about 150 rounds. With the current number of attacks, Ukraine needs approximately 10,000 per day.
Jet-powered Shaheds fly much faster than older propeller-driven drones, making them harder to shoot down. According to Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine currently shoots down only about 57% of such drones.
There is no global shortage of rounds for F-16s, while the situation with Patriot missiles is more difficult. Ukraine is already receiving ammunition for the fighters from Belgium, Spain, and other countries.

⚡️Surface transport traffic on the Pivdennyi Bridge in Kyiv has been restored — specialists found no critical damage.

🇱🇻In Latvia, a married couple has been detained on suspicion of spying for Russia.
Latvia's State Security Service, together with military intelligence, detained them on June 28. Both are Latvian citizens.
According to the investigation, they collected information for Russian GRU about the country's defense, NATO force activities, and aid to Ukraine. Among the targets was the military base in Adaži, where the multinational NATO brigade in Latvia is stationed.
In particular, the couple passed data on the Latvian Armed Forces airbase, radars, and the movement of military aircraft. One of the suspects, on GRU orders, even flew over the military base in Adaži in a private plane and photographed it. They could also have assisted potential intelligence and sabotage groups in Latvia.
During searches in Riga and the Adaži region, security services seized data carriers, documents, and recordings. Both were taken into custody; the investigation is ongoing.

In the headquarters of Poland's Military Police, a mysterious parcel was opened — three people were hospitalized, RMF24 reports.
The envelope arrived from Germany to a unit in Nowa Dęba, Podkarpackie Voivodeship. When it was opened, a postcard was found inside — no substance spilled from the envelope. However, two gendarmes and a civilian who was in the room felt unwell — they experienced skin irritation on their faces and hands.
Four more military personnel were isolated, and 133 people were evacuated from a neighboring building. Chemical rescue workers operated at the scene. The Internal Security Agency and the Military Counterintelligence Service were also notified of the incident.
Later, the Ministry of Defense stated that experts found no chemical, biological, or radiological substances in the parcel. The three affected individuals were examined and discharged from the hospital. The causes of the incident are being investigated.
▪️A similar story already occurred in Romania. In April, two Ukrainians were charged there in a case involving "explosive" parcels, which, according to the investigation, may have been organized on the orders of Russian special services.

A Ukrainian and a Russian helped save over 170 people on board an aircraft that sent a hijacking signal — they were the ones who landed the Flydubai plane during a bloody fight in the cockpit, the Israeli publication Israel Hayom reports.
The report concerns two pilots who were flying as ordinary passengers in civilian clothes. According to the publication, they helped take control of the aircraft and land it safely in Saudi Arabia.
▪️On the morning of September 30, during a flight from Dubai to Tel Aviv, the co-pilot — an Omani citizen — attacked the captain, a UAE citizen, with a knife and apparently tried to crash the plane. The aircraft sharply lost altitude, temporarily disappeared from radar, and later landed in Tabuk. Passengers and crew subdued the attacker. Israel is considering the possibility of a terrorist attack. Initially, media mistakenly reported a Ukrainian and a Russian pilot on board.

Overnight, Russia attacked Ukraine with 107 drones, 63 of them jet-powered. Air defense neutralized 87 targets. The enemy struck 11 locations, with debris falling in four others.
🔴Kyiv. Following the attack, a warehouse and a café on the first floor of a 16-story residential building caught fire. A man was injured.
🔴Odesa. Russia struck a business center; one person was injured.
🔴Sumy. Russia struck with a guided aerial bomb — two people were injured, and six residential buildings were damaged.
🔴Kharkiv region. In Izium, the Russians struck with guided bombs — one person was injured, and over 20 private houses, cars, and the building of a non-operational enterprise were damaged.
🔴Rivne region. A woman was injured in the attack. Her house was damaged.
🔴Mykolaiv region. In the Vesnianska community, a 50-year-old man was killed in a UAV attack.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · Yesterday 11:37

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Russian drones once more hit key bridge in central Kyiv, damage reported.
"As a result of the drone strike, preliminary information indicates that the bridge support, barrier, road surface, and the protective concrete structure of the metro were damaged," Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said.

⚡️U.S. Treasury cracks down on Russian shadow banking network funding Iran.
Led by a "sanctioned and convicted criminal fraudster," and a state-owned Russian bank tied to the military, the A7 shadow network has helped Russian entities evade sanctions since 2024.

⚡️South Korean president warns of 'additional measures' if Ukraine doesn't apologize for POW dispute
President Volodymyr Zelensky angered Seoul after providing details of a transfer of North Korean prisoners of war (POWs) to South Korea during a Sept. 23 U.N. General Assembly speech.

Russia's methodical use of starvation in Oleshky
“The attacks against humanitarian aid, the complete blockade of the town, and the discriminatory distribution of food to Russian passport holders all point towards an intent to starve Ukrainian civilians with the aim of terrorizing Ukraine into submission,” write Elise Lauriot Prevost, Nadiia Vaskivska, and Anastasiia Vorobiova from Global Rights Compliance, in this op-ed.

⚡️ 'We're not telling' — Ukraine won't say what first FP-7 ballistic missile strike hit.
Asked what the missile struck, Zelensky's communications advisor told the Kyiv Independent: "We're not telling."

⚡️Russia to conscript 120,000 men, again promises they won't be sent to fight in Ukraine
Russia plans to send about 120,000 conscripts into compulsory military service between October and December, while again promising they will not be sent to fight in Ukraine — despite Moscow having made similar assurances before and later admitting conscripts had in fact been deployed.

⚡️Key bill to appease Hungary, advance EU membership lands in Ukraine's parliament
"I would like to thank all the experts - Hungarian and Ukrainian - for their constructive, forward-looking, and insightful work in the past weeks," said Hungary's Foreign Minister Anita Orban.

⚡️Ukrainian forces reportedly strike oil facilities in Russia's Volgograd, Samara regions

Belarus tests a new path back to the West
Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko has worked his way out of Western isolation before. Now, he seems to be launching yet another attempt.

⚡️Protesters in Denmark rally against last EU shipyard servicing Russia-linked tankers
"Fayard’s service of the LNG fleet is a blemish on Danish support for Ukraine. We will continue to pressure Fayard to stop," said Jens Alstrup, chairman of the NGO Freedom for Ukraine.

⚡️Ukraine urges US sanctions on Russia’s Starlink knockoff amid drone threat
Ukraine’s officials are seeking U.S. sanctions to hinder Russia’s development of the Rassvet satellite network that would allow Moscow to control attack drones across Ukraine.

⚡️Ukraine prepares sanctions on 20-plus Russian oligarchs in response to EU delistings
Ukraine is planning to sanction more than 20 Russian oligarchs in response to the European Union's decision to remove billionaires Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman from its sanctions list, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on Oct. 1.

⚡️ Ukrainian pilot dies after MiG-29 fighter shot down by Russian missile.
Redvanovich, who was 25 years old, served as the commander of the "Ghost of Kyiv" 40th Tactical Aviation Brigade.

Kyiv's bomb shelters are in a dire state. Mayor Klitschko is passing on the blame
[...]
For the capital's residents living under constant aerial attacks, access to and availability of shelters is critical. But more than four years into Russia's full-scale invasion, the city's shelter network falls short of their needs.

⚡️Russian attacks kill 2, injure 27 across Ukraine, hit passenger bus with FPV drone in Kramatorsk
Russian forces struck a passenger bus with a first-person-view (FPV) drone in the front-line city of Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast, at around 7:08 a.m. on Oct. 2, injuring two people, the Kramatorsk City Council said.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social
⚡️ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE — OCT 2, 2026
■ Engagements and reported 🇷🇺 casualties below their 7-day averages
■ Total equipment losses near average, but land-based losses were 9% lower
■ Overnight 🇷🇺 attacks: a second quiet night in a row, with 81% intercepted or suppressed and 16 locations hit or affected by debris
■ 🇷🇺 strike indicators all increased day on day; 420 🇺🇦 strike drones and nine air/artillery strikes reported
■ Key 🇺🇦 targets (reported yesterday): confirmed destruction of Rubicon UAV storage facilities; a missile and artillery ammunition depot was also struck

Ukraine Invasion - Part 62
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · Yesterday 11:54

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Russia has detained a Western vessel for the first time in response to sanctions against its “shadow fleet,” Postimees reports.
The Cyprus-flagged dry cargo ship Västerbotten was en route to the Estonian port of Sillamäe when it was intercepted in the Baltic Sea after entering Russian territorial waters, according to the Estonian Transport Administration.
The vessel was ordered to anchor in the Gulf of Finland for inspection. Russia has not provided official information on the reasons for the incident.
An agreement between Russia, Estonia, and Finland allows vessels to pass through the section of the Gulf of Finland where the Västerbotten was intercepted, as the route is considered safer than the fairway between shoals in Estonian territorial waters.
The cargo ship departed Sweden on September 29 and was scheduled to reach Sillamäe this evening. It remains in the Gulf of Finland.

🇪🇺 Ukraine will receive EU funding to cover its budgetary and defense needs through the end of 2026.
Kyiv and Brussels have agreed on funding and on steps to ensure the timely disbursement of the funds.
The parties also agreed to move as quickly as possible on allocating €45 billion to Ukraine for 2027 under the Ukraine Support Loan program.

❗️Ukrainian intelligence has received information that Putin ordered the lifting of all restrictions on attacks against Ukraine, Zelenskyy told the Financial Times.
According to Zelenskyy, Putin told the military that “there are no rules anymore.”

❗️Russia plans to destroy up to 15 GW of Ukraine’s energy capacity through strikes, potentially leaving cities without electricity, heat, or water, The New York Times reports.
According to the publication, Ukrainian Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal showed European partners in Paris a document that Kyiv believes to be an intercepted Russian plan for attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid. The NYT obtained a copy of the document.
Under the plan, Russia could deploy up to 1,000 missiles, drones, and aerial bombs. Targets would include electrical substations, hydroelectric and thermal power plants, boiler houses, and other energy infrastructure.
The plan outlines three stages of attacks. First, Russian strikes would disable substations near the western border through which Ukraine receives electricity from Europe. Next, hydroelectric power plants would be targeted. The third stage involves attacking switchyards near Ukraine’s three operational nuclear power plants to disconnect them from the grid.
Separately, Russia plans to attack the water supply system, specifically pumping stations and treatment facilities, the NYT reports.
The plan details the potential impact on Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa with particular specificity. In these cities, Russian strikes aim to cut electricity and heat supplies by up to 90% and severely disrupt sewage systems.
According to the document, the ultimate goal is to deprive major Ukrainian cities of electricity, heat, and water, triggering a humanitarian crisis and exerting pressure on Ukrainian society.

🇫🇮 Finland plans to provide €50 million for Ukraine’s reconstruction through the World Bank.
The Finnish Ministry of Foreign Affairs has approved a €50 million loan to the International Development Association (IDA), part of the World Bank Group. The funds will be allocated to the SPUR 2.0 recovery program for Ukraine.

Russia’s Finance Ministry failed to raise funds for the federal budget amid record military spending and a lack of buyers.
The Finance Ministry said the bond placement was cancelled “due to a lack of bids at acceptable price levels.”
Russian media reported that investors were deterred by the Kremlin’s plans to significantly increase military spending and by the widening budget deficit.
Russia plans to raise defense spending by nearly a third next year, while its forecast for the current-year budget deficit has already been revised upward to a record level.
As borrowing needs rise, yields on Russian government bonds have approached 17%.
Russian analysts say that if bond auctions continue to fail, the authorities may be forced to rely more heavily on mechanisms of covert monetary expansion through the Central Bank.

🇺🇦 Ukrainian retaliatory strikes have effectively disrupted Russia’s main grain export route, with alternative ports currently able to handle only about 10% of the volume previously shipped through the Black Sea, Bloomberg reports.
[...] Moscow is now attempting to reroute exports through Ust-Luga, Vysotsk, the Caspian region, and the Far East. Between July and September, five such ports handled only 1.3 million tons of grain and oilseeds, compared with roughly 12 million tons of throughput capacity at the main Black Sea ports.
Shipping grain to Egypt via the Baltic Sea is also about 30% to 35% more expensive. [...]

Russia has penciled in another three years of record military spending, with plans for 2027 allocating approximately 17 trillion rubles ($205 billion) to the war and the armed forces, Bloomberg reports.
The figure represents a 27% increase over the previous plan. Spending is projected to dip only slightly, to 16.6 trillion rubles in 2028. The war remains the top budgetary priority, while spending on education, healthcare, culture, and social policy is largely stagnating or being cut.
To fund the war amid declining oil and gas revenues, authorities are preparing new taxes and levies on businesses, including a tax of up to 30% on windfall profits at select commodities companies and a 20% levy on gold miners. Utility rates for households are also set to rise by an average of 11% in 2027.
Moscow is also generating additional revenue from confiscated assets. Their sale alone is expected to bring 342 billion rubles into the budge

🤦‍♂️ “We should not set the strategic defeat of Russia as a goal—if, of course, we want to survive,” Putin said at the Valdai Discussion Club meeting.
▪️ Putin claimed that Russia did not start the war against Ukraine, but was instead forced to defend itself against aggression.
▪️ He said Russophobia and the killing of Russian people should not have become state ideology in Ukraine.
▪️ Putin claimed that Russian troops have always followed humanitarian norms and have never been the first to attack non-military targets.
▪️ He said disturbing trends in international affairs require countries to focus first and foremost on preserving global peace.
▪️ Putin said humanity has not yet grasped the scale of the challenges transforming life and warned against scenarios in which humanity could approach the brink of survival.
▪️ He said every conceivable and inconceivable taboo in global politics is being broken, while the principle that “might makes right” appears to guide some global players.
▪️ Putin said escalation is never one-sided and that a point of no return can arrive quickly and unexpectedly.
▪️ He said the decline of Western hegemony would improve the global situation, arguing that the West’s influence in the world is declining.
▪️ Putin said international institutions established after 1945 no longer reflect the global situation in the second quarter of the 21st century.
▪️ He said the international system will eventually reach a balance, but that this process will not happen quickly.
▪️ Putin acknowledged legitimate criticism of the UN, saying it operates in a less collegial and democratic manner than originally intended.
▪️He said Russia supports “fair” UN reform and argued that the organization should reflect the diversity of the world, with Asia, Africa, and Latin America playing a greater role.
▪️ Putin warned that potential “digital totalitarianism” arising from AI development could become as bleak and inhumane as the totalitarian societies of the past.
▪️ He said that after the collapse of the USSR, forces gained influence in the West that did not want to pursue European cooperation.
▪️ Putin said Russia has not forgotten that its adversaries sought to inflict a strategic defeat on it. He also claimed that, despite Russia’s years-long efforts to become part of Western civilization, there were attempts to dismantle the Russian Federation.
▪️ He said the trust that late-Soviet leaders placed in the West, along with their reliance on “gentlemen’s agreements,” ultimately played a cruel trick on the USSR.

🤦‍♂️Russia was ready to resume negotiations on Ukraine immediately after the elections, but Kyiv carried out a strike during the vote, Putin claimed.
He also said Russia would completely capture the Donbas in less than two years.

Ukraine Invasion - Part 62
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · Yesterday 12:08

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Repeated Russian drone strikes on Kyiv’s Southern Bridge mark a notable escalation in attacks on the capital’s transport infrastructure, disrupting road and metro traffic and raising questions about Moscow’s shifting target priorities.
Why now? Kyiv Post examines.

Russia was rocked by a massive drone attack, with authorities claiming air defenses downed a staggering 646 UAVs across 14 regions overnight.
Fires broke out near an oil refinery and chemical plant in Volgograd, as well as a major oil storage site in Samara.

Ukraine withdrew its request for Australia's retiring Eurocopter Tiger helicopters, concluding their logistical and maintenance costs outweigh the battlefield benefits.
Kyiv is focusing on other aviation assets.

The Pentagon has handed Raytheon a $24.4 billion deal to ramp up SM-6 missile production as the US scrambles to replenish weapons stocks depleted during the Iran war.
The seven-year agreement aims to speed up production of missiles used against air and surface threats.

A Russian military helicopter crashed in the Anninsky district of the Voronezh region, killing all three people on board, according to Russian and independent media reports.

Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) says it has detained two teenagers in Zaporizhzhia accused of plotting to assassinate four Ukrainian servicemen on behalf of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB).
The teenagers were allegedly recruited through social media, the SBU said.

Putin’s new version of the war has a continuity problem: the footage.
In 2022, he went on television to announce Russia’s “special military operation” against Ukraine. In 2026, he says Ukraine started it.
Apparently, the Kremlin’s memory is short. https://t.me/Kyivpost_official/40446

Ukraine Turns Down Free Australian Tiger Helicopters, Worriedly Eyes US Apache

Kyiv concluded that maintaining the retiring aircraft would create excessive costs and logistical problems despite the proposed free transfer.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/85863

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · Yesterday 12:28

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Meanwhile, a chemical plant is on fire near Moscow — seven Russians were killed.
Russian Telegram channels report that at least three explosions occurred this evening at the Krasnozavodsk Chemical Plant. One of the workshops collapsed, and a fire broke out.
This plant is one of Russia's key special chemistry enterprises, specializing in the production of explosives and ammunition, including warheads for Geran UAVs.

⚡️Ukraine is asking the US to impose sanctions on Russian companies helping Moscow create "Rassvet" — an analogue of Starlink, Reuters reports, citing Ukraine's chargé d'affaires in the US, Denys Senik.
According to him, Russia is rapidly expanding its satellite network and plans to launch it in 2027. Russia already placed its first 16 satellites into orbit in March, and overall plans to create a constellation of 900 spacecraft.
Senik stated that "Rassvet" could give Russia the ability to guide strikes on targets in Ukraine in real time.
The Ukrainian diplomat will provide the US government and Congress with data on companies and individuals Kyiv accuses of assisting the Russian program. If they are not added to sanctions lists, this, according to Senik, could become a "turning point" for the project's implementation.
The chief developer of "Rassvet" is already under US sanctions, but some companies supplying components for the network are not yet, AP writes.

A Russian biker linked to the GRU may have been behind the attempt to blow up a Ukrainian aircraft in Leipzig, according to an investigation by The Telegraph and Welt am Sonntag.
German investigators suspect that Oleg Levushkin — a citizen of Latvia and Russia who is passionate about motorcycles — planned the sabotage at Leipzig airport. According to the investigation, he may be linked to the GRU and was responsible for the operation's logistics.
Levushkin arrived in Germany at the end of July via Turkey, rented a car, and on July 31 his vehicle was recorded near Leipzig airport. Investigators believe he may have conducted preliminary reconnaissance there. According to German sources, explosives could have been transported to Germany via Bulgaria and Serbia, hidden in the cavities of trucks.
According to the investigation, Levushkin tasked Belarusian Andrei Karshakov with carrying out the attack. Evidence points to similarities between this operation and other Russian sabotage schemes in Poland, Lithuania, and Germany.
Journalists also uncovered Levushkin's connection to Denys Smolianinov — a GRU colonel described as one of the organizers of Russian sabotage in Europe. According to Lithuanian intelligence, he heads the Ukrainian direction within the GRU, specializes in psychological operations, and is linked to sabotage coordinated via Telegram. Journalists believe Levushkin and Smolianinov have known each other since 2007.
▪️On August 5, a drone with explosives and a detonator was found near a Ukrainian An-124 Ruslan at Leipzig airport. Police do not rule out sabotage. No one was injured, and the aircraft was not damaged. Media reported that the plane might have been carrying weapons, but Germany's Interior Ministry denied this.

Ukraine Invasion - Part 62
DdraigGoch · Yesterday 23:40

MissConductUS · 30/09/2026 22:32

Good question. He knows that everyone is lying, but not about what or how much. Or what realities are being hidden.

He has multiple sources of information that he uses to triangulate where the truth is. But the system encourages optimism bias because it's so effective at filtering out bad news.

That's why it takes attacks on Russian infrastructure and queues for petrol to break through the self deception.

The fact that losing the war will mean a new window cleaning career for him will undoubtedly make him want to hear good news more.

blueshoes · Today 01:07

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 30/09/2026 22:21

The blame culture would have to shift towards a "this went wrong, why, how do we adapt and improve" culture before vranyo could disappear. Failure seems to be very harshly punished, no matter the reason (from the information we are given).

The Russian way seems to be the opposite of the Japanese method of process improvement or 'Kaizen'. It involves input from workers at all levels and asking 'why' 5 times to drill down to the ultimate root cause of a problem. That requires a high level of trust which does not seem to exist in Russian culture.

Sometimes I wonder how Russia is even still here with such a dysfunctional culture. I can only assume it is petrodollars, natural resources and China keeping it afloat. It must have brilliant scientists.

blueshoes · Today 01:19

DdraigGoch · Yesterday 23:40

The fact that losing the war will mean a new window cleaning career for him will undoubtedly make him want to hear good news more.

😁Denial is a powerful thing.

I think at some level Putin must know that things are bad if he is saying to the military that “there are no rules anymore.”, according to Zelenskyy. That sounds like flailing from Russia. That said, I thought the gloves were off from the get go.

🤦‍♂️ “We should not set the strategic defeat of Russia as a goal—if, of course, we want to survive,” Putin said at the Valdai Discussion Club meeting.
▪️ Putin claimed that Russia did not start the war against Ukraine, but was instead forced to defend itself against aggression.

This must be the biggest example of Vranyo going. Imagine the stooges in Valdai not even blinking at eye at the porkies.

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