This is pretty obvious I realise, but I increasingly think the GM mayoral election on 30 July may be the decider on whether Burnham calls a GE soon after September.
If Labour wins - by any margin - I think he’ll see it as Reform’s weakest point since the last GE and will act. If Reform wins, especially if they win quite easily, he’ll stay his hand, IMO.
I’d be interested to know what the Green vote in GM as a whole might be, inc pro-Pal vote lenders. The Green vote in places is apparently high (Gorton result) but in others low (Makerfield). That could be v important.