https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/locals-2026
Has a council by council projection, very much errs of the lighter side in terms of Labour losses - around 1200 - but is an interesting starting point nonetheless.
For those areas counting overnight it suggests Labour will lose around 220 councillors, Conservatives around 160, and “others” around 50. On the gain side Reform gain around 380, Greens 40 and LDs 20.
Within those numbers just for the London borough overnight counts. Losers Labour just under 50 councillors, conservative just under 40, others down near 25. Reform gain just over 50, LDs and Greens around 30 gains each.
so a useful yardstick to measure against what actually happens at those overnight counts.