Schrödinger's Strait - Trump Thread #162A

[Spandauer]

The Strait of Schrödinger remains open and closed, safe and dangerous, insurable and uninsurable, blockaded and free.

"You put your tanker in, you put your tanker out
In, out, in, out, you sail it all about
You do the Straits of Hormuz and you turn around
That’s what it’s all about!"

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!

Got overwhelmed by the 🍊💩's idiot fuckery last time and missed out thread #161 so have designated this one as fake #162...A

Trump’s Final Term Ends in: - Countdown Timer
Thanks for link @CaveMum

Previous thread:
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5516057-he-has-no-deal-he-has-no-dice-trump-thread-162

IRGC gunboat hits container ship near Hormuz without warning.
https://www.turkiyetoday.com/region/irgc-gunboat-hits-container-ship-near-hormuz-without-warning-3218563

An Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) gunboat fired on a container ship near the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday morning without issuing any radio warning, causing heavy damage to the vessel's bridge, the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) center reported.
Iran's Tasnim News Agency said the IRGC had "enforced maritime law" on a vessel that "ignored repeated warnings," and as the IRGC issued an anniversary statement vowing it was ready to deliver "crushing blows beyond the enemy's imagination" in any new round of military conflict.

And Iranian vessels going dark as well.

@logicisall Morning,what does that mean ?

Iran now saying that they have received plans from US on ceasefire/blockade.

The hokey pokey has turned into escalated Simon Says.

If you're asking what Iranian vessels going dark means, it's when they turn off their AIS (Automatic Identification System) so that they can't be tracked.

Have just watched the latest season of The Capture and even the plot of that wasn't as convoluted as this.

Thank you for the explanation.
So many twists and turns .

They are turning off their AIS/transponders so they can't be identified. There was quite a discussion on this on a previous thread. I'm sure by deduction/inference from previous AIS position monitoring etc, there will be a good guess on which are Iranian, but happy to be corrected by better informed others.

Bingo card prediction. Trump TACOs on the blockage which Iran has labelled an act of war and therefore non-negotiable while using Pakistan's entreatries as the reason. Atm, I'm watching China's response to everything in order to anticipate what happens next. They have good relationships with GCC (recent Saudi visit) and depend on Iranian oil.

If it benefits them. Or does it benefit them more for it to stay closed ? That would be a mighty complex pro and con list.

Coming into summer in PRC. Can bet the number crunchers have been at work doing the sums on what oil needs can be cut back on. As you suggest, their big prize could be the Gulf states re influence.

I am sure all the shareholders are on board, if not the customers.

Oh for the days of Concorde.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c895j8zgqe4o

The whole world becoming poorer most certainly does not benefit China. And they are very aware of it.

The fact they previously said they arrived in advance shows clearly his communication is for the market traders IMO. Oil prices stable until Mango opens his cake hole and threatens annihilation again to spike the prices... It all reminds me of Brexit.

No need for an airplane at all, when they can teleport.

FEMA chief doubles down on wild claim he teleported to Waffle House
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/fema-chief-doubles-down-on-wild-claim-he-teleported-to-waffle-house/ar-AA1ZUzFG

As ever when China is involved, timescale is everything. More global pain in the short term, but oh, the benefits if China gains in the long term from this mess. I am aware of their stake in green energy.

Oh quite.

Hearing an advisor on local radio when there was Chinese interest in the Longbridge Rover plant back in the noughties, it was clear that a Chinese business plan works in 5 year increments and it would be a rare one that did not span 35-50 years.

As the famous misunderstanding goes :

"What do you think of the French Revolution ?" - asked a reporter of a Chinese diplomat in the late 69s.

"I think it's too soon to tell."

https://quoteinvestigator.com/2025/04/02/early-tell

Yep, I'd be sure alternative means of detecting and identifying non-transponding vessels is available...

There is more than that to it. Ammo for the defence of Taiwan is a big one. Another, as an example, is the Philippines electorate turning against pro US Marcos. Any government moving away from the US is an advantage. Demand for EVs, solar panels etc.

I think it all depends on what they use Iranian and gulf oil for.

As a side note, did everyone see the Japanese news yesterday bbc.com/news/articles/clyx4vlqy4vo - it seems they are keeping their eyes firmly on China and Taiwan so I suspect we have a lot more of this US pantomime to go before they side with China or Russia; their falling birth rate and lack of visas for foreign youngsters still affecting Japan's own 5+ year plans I suspect.

It's not really a case of the PRC being super long term planners. They are in a hole with a fair few things domestically at the moment because their plans are flawed.

The only real difference is no change of government every 4 or 5 years. Apart from that, their plans work out or fuck up like anyone else's. And of course, when their plans do fuck up, they can totally hide it.

Britains - winning - strategy to deal with Napoleon was to blockade the continent to starve France and it's allies.

It's what you do when you don't command a huge army.