Depraved, Desperate, Deluded and Dangerous - Trump Thread #160

[Spandauer]

More of the same. 🤬

Previous thread:
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5510944-the-king-of-crazytown-cant-control-the-chaos-trump-thread-159

I believe the Oman side is much shallower, so the tankers etc have to use the Iranian side.

Some more signal above the noise

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/11/trump-mass-pardons-end-of-presidential-term

Also overlooked in action. green card holders, refugees, asylum seekers and undocumented immigrants are liable for the US draft.

Who remembers the "calm down dear" threads over people concerned for their DC travelling to the US. I guess only the mothers of sons need worry now.

https://abc7news.com/post/us-draft-2026-automatic-military-registration-takes-effect-december-trump-administration-heres-how-would-work/18863198/

The mandatory registration applies to green-card holders, refugees, asylum seekers and undocumented men. Those on a nonimmigrant visas are exempt.

The countries in the ME can bypass the SoH if they work together. So Trump will also have to strongarm them.

Now they have seen how strong his arms are, I don't know it would deter them.

That complicates things. Is it empties in, full out ? But deep draft full cargo and container ships would need to use the Iranian side to get in because they are delivering not collecting ?

Why is everything so bloody complicated :-)

How does Trump manage to process all these complex things ?

To who ?

Or whom ?

Remember there are sanctions against Iran.

Can’t he just declare victory a few more times and be done with it?

I was going to book flights home for June. It’s not looking hopeful is it? Will we still have jet fuel by then?

There are two strategies at play. The first is PR/propaganda playing to a US audience, midterms etc and most importantly keeping Magats on side. Trump needs a win.

The second is Trump trying to find an off ramp. Control of the SoH is Iran's ace, but it also needs to sell its oil to finance war/economy, so taking the SoH will hurt Iran financially at a time when its assets are also frozen. Which might force them to the negotiated peace table etc.

Re countries paying a toll. Apparently this has been done in the currency which must not be named. Totally untraceable. If I were Iran, I would secretly contract with interested parties to not launch a drone or two while their tankers were passing through, while letting the US think they're successfully policing it.

How the US intends to actually do the blockade is a 'watch this space' answer.

How would other countries do that without conflict etc.? They can't bring the oil overland 😊

I confess to not having a clue about the politics or logistics but could marine traffic/oil tankers get out via the Suez Canal and would Egypt oblige?

Edited, bet that made you all laugh. I was looking at the wrong part of the map. No Suez Canal. But caravans across the desert maybe.

Sorry to be so flippant about this very serious matter.

The Shipping Lanes are a tiny tiny part of the whole water body
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/ae/Strait_of_hormuz_full.jpg

Re countries paying a toll. Apparently this has been done in the currency which must not be named. Totally untraceable.

Not necessarily true.

They will completely pipeline the oil overland

From one side of Saudi to the other
and from the UAE to Sohar in Oman

I don't think it's obvious at all. He is a demented egomaniac to whom no-one in the West except Spain and Pope Leo XIV seems to be able to say no.

Sorry to be so flippant about this very serious matter.

Doesn't worry me 😂

He's so obviously demented it's hard to see why impeachment would fail.

Re Saudi. That could explain the Pakistani fighter jets' presence as per their defence pact

I am probably being unfair, but my impression is that Pope Leo has been more forthright in the past month than Pius-the-whatever was for the entirety of WW2.

Pakistan doing what the US can't ?

I wonder if any of that infrastructure is in place, or is yet to be installed.

I'd have thought there was some sort of an alternative way all along, but hadn't a clue if there was or not TBH. Surely these countries would have contingency plans for just such an event as this.

Anyway, the situation is terrible. I don't know what the outcome will be and it's the fear of the unknown that's the worst.

This war might have the unintended consequence of doing exactly that.

It already has us looking to EU over US via Stamer, which is something we all thought would take decades post Brexit.

I've been saying that for 10 years, always in the hope of being proven wrong thanks to those famous checks and balances of the US Constitution. Pah.

Hitler was a Catholic. QED.

My understanding is a lot of the infrastructure is sort of in place.

The reason it hasn't been done before is because the ME can be like cats in a sack. However, when a rather dozy lion rears it's head, they suddenly find out they can work together. It's called political alignment for economic gains. They might call it something like the "Middle East Economic Community" or MEEC to begin with

Quote

Iran sells the vast majority of its oil—roughly 80% to 90%—to China, which serves as its primary, crucial buyer, particularly through independent "teapot" refineries that often use a "shadow fleet" to circumvent US sanctions. Other smaller, notable, or historically recorded, buyers of Iranian oil include Syria, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela, and occasionally India.