A whole civilisation will die tonight.

[todayImstruggling]

Tumps exact words today!

WTAF? That sounds like he is about to drop a Nuke!

How the hell has the world got here?

Trumps truth social posts sounds more like something that a dramatic gleeful tv presenter would say in a game show. Not something a world leader threatening to blow up an entire civilisation.

https://news.sky.com/story/iran-war-latest-trump-tehran-us-israel-kharg-island-netanyahu-lebanon-strikes-drone-live-sky-news-13509565

Really? Who has told you that?

What mild recession?! You don't seem to understand what is going on here. You clearly don't understand how vital energy is to the world economy. It literally is the economy. That is before you even mention the fertiliser and multiple other chemicals which have not been flowing as normal.

The countries from which we are most at risk in terms of using nuclear weapons are Israel and even the US with Trump at the helm. He is clearly thoroughly unstable. Iran has no nuclear weapons. If anything, this war increases the likelihood of them deciding to acquire them in the future.

It would appear that Iran will begin tolling the Strait immediately so this is a major win for them. This is a quote from the CEO of Centre for New American Security: 'It’ll be clear to all that Tehran controls a key energy chokepoint. That is hardly a victory for the United States and should be considered an unacceptable endgame.' Assuming the tolling does begin in the next two weeks then they'll have received a major concession that they demanded. This is substantially worse for the world than before the war when traffic flowed freely through the Strait. The idea that this is a win for the USA is baffling, they had free access before the war so they've put us in a much worse position.

There doesn't appear to be a plan to get the enriched Uranium ever but certaintly not in the next two weeks - that could change but for now they've received a cease fire with no concession there.

USA forces will apparently hang around just to see if Iran 'does what it said it would do.' If they leave in the next two weeks then they'll have withdrawn as Iran demanded which is another huge concession.

At this point, I don't see what Iran have conceded other than two allow boats to pass through a Strait which they will now toll and therefore bring in billions that will likely go straight to ballistics.

How will they ever know? (And I'm sure Iran could get more). It's not an easy country to search assuming Iran allowed any such search. Iran haven't lost this war, they have proved they can withstand the might of the US and Israel. The only way the US could truly 'win' would be ground troops which would be hugely costly in terms of lives. And that can only be a temporary win. I always remember an Afghan fighter at the end of that war saying to an American, my children will be here and my grand children, yours won't.

No I do not accept this minimising or downplaying of Trump's written words threatening genocide. He is the president of the United States and we should never normalise this, his words hold weight. And why are you using the IRGC as another example? Their statement on death to US and Israel is a reason given by many to go to war so clearly people don't see them as just words but threats to be taken seriously and I view Trump's words the same. Why do people continually make excuses for him.

Because we know they had 400KG of 60% enriched uranium.

Iran won;t be able to stop the US searching

You can't just get more it's spectacularly hard to get and enrich. luckily.

No I know all about those things.

"The countries from which we are most at risk in terms of using nuclear weapons are Israel and even the US"

Bull shit.

Evidence: The fact they have had them for 80 years and 65 years and they have been used twice, in WW2.

Iran was already trying to get them. Hence the war.

The problem is the fundamentalist regime in Tehran, nothing else.

If Putin had said at the weekend "unless Ukraine surrender I will obliterate their civilization" there would have been outrage and condemnation from world leaders. The double standards is fucking appalling.

The US only used nuclear weapons twice! Only!

Btw, Pakistan also has a nuclear bomb, has aided and sheltered terrorists across the world, and has a fundamentalist Islamic government controlled by the army.

This seems like an accurate assessment.

I think that this captures how awful the ceasefire deal is and how much worse we are now than prior to the war thanks to Trump and Netanyahu. This is from the Guardian.

"Brett McGurk, a former senior US security official and reluctantly supportive of the conflict, conceded on social media that the ceasefire agreement Trump has signed is not “status quo ante bellum” ie the US is now worse off than at the start of this war of choice.

To spell it out, Trump needlessly started a war at the urging of Israel, refused to listen to those experts urging caution, devised a strategy built on a misapprehension of Iran, sparked a ruinous regional conflict, caused the death of thousands of civilians, unhinged the world economy, strengthened, for now, the repressive instincts of the Iranian and Russian governments, left America more discredited and isolated, provoked serious questions about the president’s fitness for public office, laid waste to large parts of Iran and Lebanon, including medical research centres, primary schools and universities, did not resolve Iran’s stockpiles of highly enriched uranium or its future nuclear programme, strengthened those in Iran backing possession of a nuclear weapon, and, yes, ensured Iran and Oman still plan to control and toll the strait of Hormuz for the first time."

That's an accurate summary, IMO.

Do you mean why aren't there more war crimes?

It's in the interests of each country generally that war crimes aren't committed. For example, the US military absolutely doesn't want there to be a suggestion that they will take no quarter against opponents because the other side will then do the same back. The Geneva Convention protects both sides. There's also personal liability for following an illegal order/committing a war crime. So to some extent what's relied on is it being in the personal interests of the people making the decisions (it's game theory!).

Normally people also morally not really want to be accused of war crimes. It's not normally seen as a character plus or something you want to go down in history for. Unfortunately the parties at play here either have a history of turning the narrative into one of discrimination, or have just reached the stage where they don't really care any more, or both. There also is a lot of truth in the fact that only the losers of wars have their war crimes remembered. That's potentially changing because of mass media and the court of public opinion, but the public has short attention spans. No one's talking about IRIS Dena anymore, and the Lamerd sports hall attack hasn't had any significant attention I can see. People are barely even discussing the Minhab school attack anymore. The world also seems to have forgotten the UN Peacekeepers killed in Lebanon last week.

And then finally, when the powers involved are less significant there is retribution and action is taken. The issue here is that Israel is enormously protected, not sure what more the world could actually do to Iran, and the US political system makes it close to impossible to take action against a sitting government.

I appreciate he’s discussing it from a US perspective but we’re all worse off than before the war.

Good summary, thanks for posting that.

Is this really it though even in the short term? A two week ceasefire is not the same as saying there will be a lasting peace. I feel like Trump is completely persuadable to do anything at any time.

It's not even it for today - Israel has issued new evacuation orders for civilians in Lebanon.

Lebanon has been left to the Israeli government to flatten. They don’t have the Straits of Hormuz to leverage.

Lebanon. 😥Will be erased.

I wonder which European country those refugees will be flooding next week

Please can someone explain to me why Israel is doing this. I know the excuses they give, but what is the real reason? Because they want the land?

is the IRG way way worse than the USA? Hell yes

Not with Trump in the White House. Six of one and half dozen of the other.

The question is whether Iran will be willing to sacrifice Hezbollah. They have the Strait to leverage.

Is this a joke? You are using the fact that the US is the only country to have ever used nuclear weapons as evidence that there is a lower chance of the US (or Israel) using weapons compared to Iran, which has no nuclear weapons? You are making absolutely no sense and are delusional.

Given Pakistan is a nuclear power I wonder whether they got a negotiation completed by suggesting it would lend them to Iran.

I think what we have learnt for Iran and Ukraine is that if a state doesn't have nuclear weapons they are screwed.