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Labour isn't working - Thread 26

1000 replies

TheNuthatch · 26/01/2026 17:47

A chat thread for those who don't like this Labour government. 💙🩵

The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.

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Labour isn't working - Thread 26
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strawberrybubblegum · 09/02/2026 13:10

Here are some graphs showing bond yields and (year-on-year) inflation over the last decade

Labour isn't working - Thread 26
Labour isn't working - Thread 26
DiySteve · 09/02/2026 13:27

strawberrybubblegum · 09/02/2026 13:07

I was looking at the 10 year bond yields, since there's talk of those going up with the Labour shenanigans.

Labour people often claim that they're below the Liz Truss peak. But surely bond yields will take inflation into account, since the yield should return value in real-terms, ie discounting expected inflation over the next 10 years.

So with inflation dropping steadily since 2022, we'd expect the yields to have come down pretty significantly since Truss, because of lower inflation.

But they haven't.

So in real terms, the bonds yields show an 'idiot premium' already several percentage points higher than that applied to Truss.

Have I understood that correctly?

Bonds and interest rates move inversely i.e. as interest rates fall, existing bonds (not future issues), are relatively more attractive, given their better return - therefore driving up their value.

Where that relationship is compressed owing to the ‘idiot premium’ as you say, its simply because the market demands a higher premium owing to perceptions of political instability or fiscal incompetence.

Gilt yields are not several percentage points higher than the Truss blow-out.
10 year bonds are currently trading at 4.566% - at par with the Truss period. The difference is the price action at that time - when they more than doubled very quickly.

For context, a good metric is the German bund - UK bond spread. That’s more relevant of how the market sees the UK.

TheNuthatch · 09/02/2026 13:31

Anas Sarwar (Scottish Labour leader) is expected to call for Starmer to resign at his press conference at 2.30pm. 🍿 🍿

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Sarahconnor1 · 09/02/2026 13:31

Anas Sarwar is holding a press conference at 2.30.

Speculation is he will call for Starmer to step down.

ChardonnaysBeastlyCat · 09/02/2026 13:32

So, will he be gone for the 6 o'clock news or for the 10 o'clock ones?

Sarahconnor1 · 09/02/2026 13:32

@TheNuthatch

Splendid cross post, to the minute

TheNuthatch · 09/02/2026 13:34

Every time I stop for a coffee, something else crumbles.

This could trigger some cabinet resignations. Eyes on Wes.

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EasternStandard · 09/02/2026 13:35

Let’s see if the cartoon at the start of this thread lasts longer than Starmer.

derxa · 09/02/2026 13:36

Sarahconnor1 · 09/02/2026 13:31

Anas Sarwar is holding a press conference at 2.30.

Speculation is he will call for Starmer to step down.

That’s major

TheNuthatch · 09/02/2026 13:38

I wonder if Eluned Morgan will follow suit? Crikey, its all going on.

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DiySteve · 09/02/2026 13:38

EasternStandard · 09/02/2026 13:35

Let’s see if the cartoon at the start of this thread lasts longer than Starmer.

Perhaps we should buy a ‘past-its-sell by’ lettuce.

TheNuthatch · 09/02/2026 13:38

EasternStandard · 09/02/2026 13:35

Let’s see if the cartoon at the start of this thread lasts longer than Starmer.

We need a lettuce 😂🥬

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TheNuthatch · 09/02/2026 13:39

DiySteve · 09/02/2026 13:38

Perhaps we should buy a ‘past-its-sell by’ lettuce.

Great minds 🥬🥬

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DiySteve · 09/02/2026 13:40

TheNuthatch · 09/02/2026 13:38

I wonder if Eluned Morgan will follow suit? Crikey, its all going on.

You, and your loyal posters have worked hard for this moment @TheNuthatch

It will soon be upon you.

TheNuthatch · 09/02/2026 13:44

DiySteve · 09/02/2026 13:40

You, and your loyal posters have worked hard for this moment @TheNuthatch

It will soon be upon you.

Can't wait to watch Starmer limp out of No.10 in disgrace. 🍾🥳
We were right about him.

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EasternStandard · 09/02/2026 13:44

“Downing Street has said Sir Keir Starmer is "upbeat and confident" - after being asked if he will resign today. ”

I mean there’s delusional and there’s this. Wtf with upbeat and confident 😬

Sweating and stumbling I’m sure.

DenizenOfAisleOfShame · 09/02/2026 13:50

TheNuthatch · 09/02/2026 13:38

We need a lettuce 😂🥬

TBF to Starmer he will have lasted longer than a green leaf vegetable. So I propose…a turnip.

TheNuthatch · 09/02/2026 13:50

Just listening to Sam Coates. He's going big on the fact that the cabinet is silent.

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TheNuthatch · 09/02/2026 13:56

DenizenOfAisleOfShame · 09/02/2026 13:50

TBF to Starmer he will have lasted longer than a green leaf vegetable. So I propose…a turnip.

😂

At this rate, he won't last the day!

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NoWordForFluffy · 09/02/2026 13:58

DiySteve · 09/02/2026 13:38

Perhaps we should buy a ‘past-its-sell by’ lettuce.

I think I've an aging lettuce in the fridge. And a tub of googly eyes. I think I'm all set for where this is going!

TheNuthatch · 09/02/2026 14:01

NoWordForFluffy · 09/02/2026 13:58

I think I've an aging lettuce in the fridge. And a tub of googly eyes. I think I'm all set for where this is going!

Yes! Do it. It can be the thread mascot.

James Williamson, former Labour advisor on Sky now. He thinks this could collapse the govt. Also said theres a possibility that Starmer could resign before his PLP meeting later today.

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CaveMum · 09/02/2026 14:01

Honestly, I step out for a bit of “non working” this morning and it looks like the whole house of cards is about to collapse!

I hope someone is forwarding the screenshot of Ange’s Tweet to Tory HQ so Kemi can have a print out to hand for PMQs.

I listened to AC’s TRIP response to McSweeney throwing in the towel late last night (it’s only about 15 mins). He more than indicated that KS had underestimated how hard it is to be PM.

It’s tough to know how to feel, on the one hand I’m glad KS’s days are numbered but I’m fearful of who may follow and the damage they could do.

I’m also sad that my country appears to be on a slope to being ungovernable if no PM can stick it out for a full term.

DenizenOfAisleOfShame · 09/02/2026 14:01

NoWordForFluffy · 09/02/2026 13:58

I think I've an aging lettuce in the fridge. And a tub of googly eyes. I think I'm all set for where this is going!

Oh Lordy, the number of googly eyes stuck to things in the house by my daughters over the years.

Still far better than glitter though. I banned that.

DiySteve · 09/02/2026 14:02

So, if there is a god (I’m agnostic but bear with me, please), Starmer goes, and we get a caretaker whilst Rayner completes her laundry.

Aside from who we think the caretaker will be, surely that leaves Labour ripe for some proper internecine warfare in the interim, right?

Is that how we see it?

38thparallel · 09/02/2026 14:03

I’m no fan of Starmer but I am concerned that whoever replaces him might be worse.
Is Angela Rayner seriously a contender?

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