What’s happening in Venezuela and what does it mean?

[theotherfossilsister]

I’m confused- has the US gone to war with them? What are the implications if so?

This is what it means. Watch out for a sharp rise of the American oil companies share prices on Monday

The New York Times has just confirmed that 40 civilians died in President Trump's invasion.

Why do you think that? Are you able to explain your thought proces?
It's far more likely that violence and crime will increase massively. The US can't just remove a leader and expect everything to perfectly fall into place. They have done this multiple times before and caused chaos and destruction.

International law is real. Its only “not real” to people who support the actions of dictators.

Might be a quick pop but it won’t be sustained because Venezuelan oil is not easily extracted. It’s technically very difficult and needs special expertise (which American oil majors do have, but will take significant upfront costs to do so).

I watched this yesterday too.
The only point where I didn't agree with the very excellent Sach's view was when he mentioned Iran. He didn't touch on CIA/Mossad involvement which seems certain to me.
This interview with Larry Johnson is also worth a listen if you haven't already. He is ex CIA and mentions the above:

Kathleen Tyson on X is also extremely knowledgable.

Good post earlier on the petro dollar and the US's long history of over throwing non US friendly regimes on various BS pretexts.

What do you mean by 'International law isn't real'?
How do you think that the UK is 'pointlessly impoverishing itself'?

oh? And who enforces it? nobody outside the EU even cares about international law (not that they can anyways enforce it), it’s only about what countries can get away with.

Which is why their investment and technical expertise is needed.

Seeing that photo of Trump watching Maduro’s capture live on the BBC this morning leads me to add one motivation to the mix.

He desperately wanted that specific photo op similar to the one of Obama watching Bin Laden being taken.

If Obama got that fantastic photo opportunity then he wanted one. Plus, heck, Bush got to go into Iraq and take out Hussein, so Trump wanted to take out another country’s leader too and be the BMOC on the international stage.

Tariffs are boring and old hat now. Domestic economy is boring and not resulting in the self aggrandisement Trump needs. No, it seems Trump and his whole executive are increasingly quite excited about the opportunities afforded to them by the might of the American military. It does not fill me with confidence.

What next?

International law is a product of European countries and European norms, which much of the world doesn’t really agree with. yes they signed some agreements after WW2 but they had little other choice. UN/EU depends on the US for enforcement, but if the US is unwilling or unable to act in this role, the whole edifice crumbles.

Europe believes in it, but is utterly unwilling to act as an enforcer, even when this shit spills onto its doorstep. nobody cares what they have to say about it—only what they do, which is nothing as always

Exactly, so far it appears that Maduro's VP remains in control with the military under her control.

Trump likely executed this during the holiday season on purpose as most influencers are on a break. It will be interesting to track the responses when anti interventionalists like Tucker Carlson et al return this week.

A lot of the "Yay, go America!" who were impressed and gloating yesterday morning, were shocked when Trump mentioned troops on the ground and running Venezuela.

But they are extracting it. Those tankers the US seized were not empty. My understanding is that Chevron took them for their gulf coast refineries that were designed and buit specifically for VZ crude.

there is a reasonable possibility that much of it never gets extracted due to pricing (only high prices will make it profitable) and market oversupply—yes I’m invested in oil stocks so have paid attention to this little detail LMAO 😭

A lot of what is being said on SM is about letting Venezuelans drive the conversation. There’s jubilation from them but also some be quiet and let us have a voice.

That's it. There will be US troops on the ground. And then more US troops on the ground as the situation likely deteriorates, etc.
And that's before you even consider what will likely play out in Iran.

The only other point I was thinking of making after your petrodollar/all about the oil post yesterday was that DJT appears to understand resource scarcity, at least to some extent, and that this is probably a factor in his policies of simply walking into sovereign countries, taking over and stealing their energy and other resources.

Looking back over a pages I see that posters concerned with what’s happened in Venezuela are facing accusations of either being middle class pearl clutching Karens or communists…quite an interesting dichotomy between those two choices!

Also interesting that international law isn’t real. Not real as in socially constructed set of rules created by men that some men with resources wilfully ignore in pursuit of narrow self interest. Well. Yes I’d agree.

But still they have (had) ramifications in the real world. Not perfectly. Not as we’d wish. But currently they are - just about - holding esp because global corporations prefer international stability and the ability to uphold contracts across different countries. Including American conglomerates.

Re Venezuelans improving their lives, I wish them all the best, but what Trump has done is still highly problematic.

Sadly, I think you're right.

Definitely some element of truth in that.
Europe only believes in it when it suits them to do so and are very happy to twist it and take illegal actions themselves (see recent debarcle over stealing Russias money in Belgium). The Europeans haven't even uttered a peep about this current illegal US action in Venezuela. However, Europe is in no position to act militarily against the US, or Russia for that matter. They have made themselves utterly dependent on the US, hence not uttering a peep!

Love Larry Johnson, his analysis is always excellent, though can be depressing when you realise what a terrible situation the world is in right now and the lack of quality experts to navigate it!

Remember that Sachs still teaches at Columbia University so he must be cautious/exact in what he says, there are many who would be happy to see him fired.

Iran and Israel both have spies/assets in each others countries:

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/bjlfzipmzx

https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-latest-spy-case-israeli-paid-by-iran-to-photograph-ramat-gan-missile-impact-site/

Didn't work out so well with people in Afghanistan did it? Am pretty sure some of the minorities preferred life under the USA, the ones now persecuted by the Taliban.
Is the USA going to spend a lot of time in Venezuela? Because they spent 20 years in Afghanistan and it still didn't work out for the people long term, esp the women.

Post shared by Hegseth

https://bsky.app/profile/sundersays.bsky.social/post/3mbkrah3rqs2r

My understanding is it is oil price and refinery efficiency that plays a part, as well as what product is needed. US light crudes are great for gasoline, but useless for tar and diesel. It takes a lot more energy (and cost) to crack VZ heavy crude down to gasoline, but it can be used to make the full product range. It's how far it's cracked down that is dictated by oil price, combined with what product is needed.

That is true.

I think they are all incredibly brave and knowledgable. Sachs and Mearshiemer get slandered on some sources, including here, for being 'run by Russia'.

I am very worried by this as it is an obvious escalation and Trump is just so obvious and crass about the whole thing. I suspect this escalation leads to further escalations in violence. It's all very Fourth Turning. I pray (I'm not even religious!) that there is no nuclear exchange, but it seems a possibility with the current leadership.

There’s three main reasons Venezuelans have reason to be more hopeful, it’s in the McFaul link below.