What’s happening in Venezuela and what does it mean?

[theotherfossilsister]

I’m confused- has the US gone to war with them? What are the implications if so?

The oil price is low at present because of low demand and a worldwide economic downturn, likely to worsen a great deal later this year.
The situation may change in the future as supply becomes more constrained. Time will tell!

demand is not falling, maybe growth in demand in slowing (but still rising) but the supply is growing faster than that, which has both good and bad aspects depending on your situation.

although yes, demand from Europe specifically may be flat or falling but this isn’t the case elsewhere

That's not my understanding of the situation at all.

Well...f**king hell - the whole business has taken an unexpected, nasty turn hasn't it. Bombing a country to show off your military capabilities to enforce better oil deals is one thing but actually abducting that country's leader (a good guy or not) is a massive message to the world. All those leaders in other 'suspect' countries around the world are now wondering who is next.

Trump has already been testing the American peoples acceptance of martial law with his 'helping out' cities where drugs, immigration, insurrection etc have been deemed to be a threat to national security by sending in the National Guard. Whether that is illegal or not, there hasn't been a huge uprising against this policy by US citizens. Trump is setting it up to make himself look like indispensable and America's saviour. He making it look as if he's always been there working for the good, adding his name to monuments & important buildings and getting those 'ground-breaking' photos of him making America great again.

Now that Trump has taken Maduro and the world hasn't immediately joined up in condemnation of it, he has been effectively 'green lit' to do more of this 'saviour of suppressed nations' stuff. I suspect that Iran may be next with huge military support from Israel who have dealt with the threat to their own back by razing Gaza to the ground unopposed.

After that who knows but we all need to look to Eastern Europe for Putin's sleight of hand and prepare for the worst I think.

Have they reported on how many civilians have died under a succession of Venezuelan despots?

White House aviser Stepeh Miller's wife posted this image

https://bsky.app/profile/sundersays.bsky.social/post/3mbkrc6e4o22r

What is the worst do you think?!

I was listening to an interview with Trump where the reporter was pressing him as to whether Europe was too far gone with Immigration to still be considered allies and whilst he didn’t say yes, he also didn’t say no. The implication was that he was watching and waiting.

Depends obviously on how it's done and implemented.

China taught Trump a very expensive lesson late last year during Trump’s tariff war.

Firstly, they didn't back down when Trump imposed tariffs of 100%+ they matched him.

Secondly China imposed a ban on rare earth exports. These are essential to American industry for the production of weapons but more importantly technology items (RAM, motherboards, processors etc) required for use in AI. This caused Trump to panic (plus Xi didn't answer his calls).

The American economy is currently being driven by massive "investment" in AI, (look at NVIDIAs shares) that many experts like Michael Burry of the Big Short fame (predicted the 2008 housing crash) say is likely a bubble.

China said to Trump we can pop it 😉. Trump called and a temporary agreement was reached.

So Trump does need to secure alternative sources for rare earths as he needs to prop up the American economy.

Do you not think Europe has a problem with immigration?

I think we have huge problems and immigration is certainly one of them, but I think organised crime is fuelling much of this which is why I’m actually pretty supportive of the YouTubers going after the scammers and narco sponsored countries being rattled.

this is getting ridiculous. Venezuela may have some small potential for rare earths but it’s far from proven and definitely not what you’d call shovel ready. It’s really not mysterious why they got Maduro, they say why themselves and they don’t really care about justifying themselves either

Probably already posted on this thread, from Sky News

📽️Donald Trump wants you to know he's targeting Venezuela because of illegal drugs.
But what if this were really about something else altogether...?
Dig into the murky world of crude oil refining and you find another, even more intriguing explanation...
Full primer 👇

What is not your understanding? That we are in an oversupply situation? Or that Venezuelan oil is not readily extracted and may take time to grow to its potential (and may never do so … )

@EvangelicalAboutButteredToast
What indeed is the worst that could happen?
The world hasn't been this unsafe since 1982/83 when it nearly all went to hell in nuclear Armageddon.
We, the UK, are a weak nation. We have allowed our military and naval might to diminish to the point that if we were invaded we would stand no chance of repelling it. We do not grow enough food, we only store 7 days worth of imported food stuffs....7 days....think of how long that will last if the food chain is interrupted.

The EU was created to make Europe financially strong. It too has reduced it fighting/defence forces to the minimum and is weak. A domino effect only has to start in one place and the whole of Europe will follow. Trump knows we are weak. He knows that the UN is unfit for the purpose it was created for and it knows that NATO is the same. This is why he has never tried to take control there - he knows that the EU, UN, NATO etc are irrelevant and toothless and more importantly, will be unable to oppose him.
Think about how often computer systems have gone down/been hacked recently not just here but worldwide? The more we use AI and automate our services via the internet, the higher the risk of complete shut down resulting in no food, fuel, power, petrol etc. Remember the fuel blockades of the early 1990's? Imagine that happening again but for everything you need????
You have China poised to take Asia, Trump poised to take the America's and Putin poised to take Europe. Think that would never happen? Think again. A quick hack here and a 'breakdown' in systems somewhere else and half the planet is down and at the mercy of people worst than the Maduro's of the world.

The worst thing of all is that there is now nothing we (normal every day people) can do to stop any of this. We have allowed ourselves to sleep walk into it all.
I'm not a prepper and I'm not a lunatic foaming at the mouth on an anti Trump rant - this is what I can see, what my kids can see and what family in the military or living in Europe can see. We can only prepare as best we can.

Correct, except I was speaking to Trump’s likely motivations for American intervention in various countries not just Venezuela. The American economy is central with the bonus that it likely helps Trump’s donor class.

Another motivation is "containing China".

To be fair I think it sounds plausible but there’s nothing you can do about it.

But will Europe or the UK take any action on this? Or will they just dither about, remain indecisive and just engage in generally unproductive behaviour?

Peace comes from strength. How could we have forgotten

I am honestly wondering what will happen if we don't elect the 'right' party at the next GE (from the Don's point of view). Or the French don't do as told/expected, or the Germans... What's to prevent the same thing from happening to us in Europe?? It's really not that far-fetched.

I’ve been listening to quite a few podcasts about current politics and socialism/Marxism. A democratic socialist mayor has just been elected in to New York and already people seem to be quite rattled about it. I know the downfall of Venezuela has been attributed to Socialism and I’ve heard this Labour government being accused of being socialists. I need to do some more reading/listening to understand it all better but none of it sounds good.

Something also happened in the last two days that barely got any coverage and that's a joint British-French air strike against IS in Syria. The UK-France military alliance has been quietly building in the background. The two only nuclear powers in Europe and leaders of the coalition of the willing. I bet you MAGA absolutely loathe it and will do all they can to break it up in the coming weeks and months.

What’s the most likely outcome in your view if no one does the air quote part of your post?

Just saw this, if you agree what was the issue?

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/04/world/americas/trump-venezuela-leader-rodriguez-machado.html

This is the only point that I disagree with John Mearsheimer on as he sees China as a threat. I think the only threat China poses to America is that China has invested in it's people's education and this has driven innovation across many industries where they used to trail America. When China was producing cheap widgets for export they weren't called a threat, it's only now that they've advanced (and are quickly surpassing) in technology (especially processors and AI) that they need to be contained.

China has never expressed a desire to be the "World Police", they seem to want to trade and focus on securing resources to look after their 1.2 billion population.

Is all Chinese investment altruistic and in the local countries interest? No, there is exploitation and corruption as with all countries. However China builds roads and infrastructure and is not bombing/invading sovereign countries.

Perhaps something radical will happen, the global south will trade happily without bullets.

Unfortunately, the people that profit from War will have to find new sources of income.