If Starmer and Reeves fuck this budget, Labour will be out of power for ANOTHER generation.

[Ozgirl76]

I was hopeful when Labour came into power - I hoped a calm sensible bunch of economic policies that would help to level things out a bit was on the cards and given that they had so long to prepare, I assumed they would spring into action and at least have some plans.

But now I’m just reading more articles about the huge swing towards Reform and I can’t believe it’s coming to this.

I actually live in Australia but I run a business in the U.K. and we have just had a second term of a very boring and sensible labour government over here who aren’t fixing things yet but they aren’t actively making things worse and I just think, it is possible to have a Labour government who don’t actively hate the richer people, but also are trying to work towards a more equal society.

What do you think is causing the main swing towards the right? Is it all the immigration stuff? Surely that can’t be everything?

Jeez, the ‘look what they inherited’ Labour apologists…

Yeah, Covid, Ukraine and energy shocks, plus some bad mistakes made by the Tories themselves, made for a poor outlook by 2024, but…I didn’t expect Labour to be this shit. It’s like having a bungling but well-meaning doctor tend to you, only to be replaced by Harold Shipman.

Blackouts we're under Ted Heath, Tory.
Economy and public services under Blair were as excellent as they ever have been.
People forget horror economics under thatcher... monetarist recession until 83, public asset give away 84 to 88, poll tax and second recession 89 to 95.

This is exactly how i feel , i have really thought about it but there is not one of them that i have any faith in whatsoever.
I will never vote tory and i feel politically lost at the moment , i don't think i could vote for reform but i do wonder -is it possible for a 3rd consecutive party whoever they are to do as bad a job as the previous 2 ?
I think i am past caring about labour being out of power for another generation as they are unrecognisable as the party i previously voted for.

Hmmm... When my child was sick in an EU country they treated him first before asking about insurance. Probably because they weren't breathing though. It would have been evil to delay treatment until an interview "stern" or otherwise

But whenever they get the address/insurance details, legally they aren't actually allowed to refuse emergency treatment in the EU. They would not legally have been allowed to leave your child to die if you had said you had no intention of paying. That is exactly the same as in the UK.
For scheduled/non emergency treatment most EU countries require advance proof that you will be able to pay. That is also the case for the UK where non residents scheduling care usually need to provide a very large deposit that care costs are taken out of.
Those going through the asylum process are exempt from this because there is no way usually they can pay and denying someone needed medical treatment is a human rights infringement. The same as in the UK. This is even the case in that socialist stronghold the USA.
So whilst "stern treatment" of foreigners with sick children might get the average reform voters all hot under the collar, it won't actually save much money. We aren't a crazy outlier compared to other countries. Out of curiosity was this "stern" interview conducted in English or did you insist on only speaking the native language of the country you were visiting?

I agree illegal working in places like food delivery needs cracking down on. It won't save much money because vape shops, delivery companies aren't making profits from claiming benefits etc. Vape shops make money by selling illegal vapes and money laundering. Both problems. Very little to do with the welfare budget.

Cracking down on cash in hand work in general would raise revenues. As would cracking down on other forms of tax avoidance. But people are living longer. That's a really wonderful thing. But it means that health care (whatever model you use) and supporting retired people will cost the government more. And take up more in terms of government spending. It's not "going after the elderly" to acknowledge that. And no amount of spiteful policies towards other groups will change that reality. It will just make some people feel better short term. When I see language like "stern" and "soft touch" I think it's just an excitement at being "tough" for the sake of it.

But Singapore isn't a democracy. It's a (very well run) authoritarian regime with very strict laws (even re chewing gum) and a very multicultural society. Much more ethnically diverse than the UK for all people complain about being over run with immigrants. And very large numbers of temporary migrant workers who keep the economy afloat. Again much more so than the UK.
Good for Singapore if that's what works for them! But I want to live in a democracy. I want to live with more freedom than people in Singapore have. Otherwise I would probably move there. And it's a bit rich to have people complaining about the UK authoritarianism/restrictions on free speech and immigration levels to this country only to turn round and say "we should be like Singapore". It's similar to Reform complaint about "Islamic threats to British values" while also saying we need to be more like Dubai! If Keir Starmer took a 500,000 salary and kept power for 40 years while instituting the exact same policies as Lee Kan Yuew people would have a heart attack. British values innit

This x 1000,000

Exactly! Labour apologists who believe the utter manipulative bullshit labour are telling the country! “Yes let’s blame the tories for everything we have fucked up on, it’s alright we can fleece the whole nation of tax payers out of millions an get away with it by blaming everyone else but ourselves and the stupid naive and gullible voters will believe us and feel sorry for us”.

My main gripe with the PM is just how uninterested he seems about anything to do with the UK. He comes across badly, preachy and uninspiring. I actually mute him as I can’t abide his sermon voice.
I just wish he’d resign. The whole party are just disappointing, they have probably realized it’s much easier being in opposition to actually having to run the country, but then that’s mostly been the case in politics forever to be fair!

Because his only goal is to be admired and idolised on the world stage by all the other world leaders and the rest of the world. Hence why he has no interest in this country.
His voters have got him to where he needs to be to be able to achieve that goal - into Downing Street so that he can have his ‘chance to shine’ on the world stage.
He’s now done a narcissistic discard on those voters because they are no longer any use to him (until it comes back round to the next general election, known as the hoovering process in narcissistic terms) and instead he has put every other country in the world first above ours because he wants to be admired by those country leaders.
He really thought he’d be able to have his ‘moment’ to shine on the world stage the other day, but got totally humiliated and slapped down by Donald Trump. Because Trump and all the other world leaders can see him coming from a mile off, they can see right through him.
He’s just an egotistical twat with a grandiose false sense of self and thinks he’s better than he really is. While grabbing every penny he can off tax payers wherever he can!

Another vote for @Bigpinksweater for PM!

@Flyingintotheunknown the thing with Trump the other day was seriously hard to watch, the cringe levels were off the scale.

He still actually thinks he played a hand in helping the ceasefire, and not the reality that his pathetic recognition of Palestine as a state actually hindered the peace process, as was pointed out by the US. Trump was actually gracious in having him there at all.

He really seems to me to have some sort of personality disorder- the level of deception going on in his head is scary. He thinks he is doing a good job. There seems no doubt in his mind. The delusion around that is pretty scary - he is in a position where he can ruin livelihoods very quickly.

I don't think people I the UK feel they live in a democracy either - they constantly vote for things (eg low immigration, Brexit) then the disrespectful politicians do the exact opposite once they get in power or try to thwart it (see Brexit). At least Singapore is honest. And doubt that 1 million foreigners are on benefits as we found out here last week - presumably they just take immigrants who will fit in and won't be a net cost and they are deported if they commit crimes or disrespect them. And presumably "refugees" would be given short shrift if they showed up on a boat with no documentation. I think people just yearn for an ordered, fair society like we used to have not the chaos we've had since Blair.

It's is unbelievable the number of people on benefits, and the current system has huge disencentives to working more or at all.

I don't understand how endless benefits are accepted here. Most other countries don't operate like this!

You are so right! He is pretty much in denial about how much of a shit storm this country is in, he thinks he’s absolutely amazing. And everytime someone questions him about the state of the country he reels off the same old shit that they have inherited the mess from 14 years of Tory government, that they’ve done this, that they’ve done that and all is nice and rosey and la de da.
His complete dismissal of anyone who has concerns about immigration is disgraceful and just branding them as far right racists shows just how dismissive he is and that he honestly doesn’t give a shit!
He was very deluded in thinking he had a god given right to be on that stage making a speech - he appeared to come forward expecting to be given the chance to speak.

He absolutely did hinder the peace process by taking it upon himself to recognise Palestine as a state. Again sticking his nose in where it’s not needed. I’m so glad he got his just desserts on the world stage! Serves him right.

You can vote for no immigration, better public services and lower taxes. You will never get all those things. That's not because we don't live in a democracy. That's because we live in reality. people voted for Brexit. We got Brexit. People who voted for Brexit because they thought it would lower immigration levels were indeed disappointed because immigration levels went up. But fundamentally they were lied to (and Garage himself is on record telling people that Brexit would allow more migration from South Asia and other non EU countries. He said different things to different audiences). But the vote wasn't do you believe Farage. It was should the UK leave the EU. The people that voted for Brexit weren't voting for the negative consequences of Brexit but that's what they got. Again that's not because we're not a democracy.

People talked for years about wanting a points based immigration system like Australia. We got that. It had other negative consequences (locals in in demand jobs feeling unfair competition, the people with the needed skills coming from the Commonwealth etc/a "different culture"). But its what a lot of people were saying they wanted.

You could in theory stop all immigration completely. But while some people would vote for that, they wouldn't be voting for all the negative consequences to come from that. Even things like takeaways and eating out would be more expensive which would cause outrage and that's a small thing.

Either we have much higher rates of migration into the country (like Singapore and the UAE) and support the aging population and economy with that. Or we have no immigration at all, everyone pays much more tax and we accept working much much longer, negative growth, inflation. Or we muddle through with a compromise. Net immigration is down this year. If that's what people voted for they did get what they wanted. If they feel they aren't thats a pity but you can't judge any government on feelings alone.

The 1 million claiming benefits stats are completely wrong. I believe even the (right wing) think tank that released them later retracted then completely. There already are rules on who can claim benefits. Much harsher rules than most people think. Rules which have become much harsher over the past 20 years. Again, people getting what they voted for.

If you want a "well ordered society" like Singapore then you will need to accept less freedom than you have now because Singapore is fairly authoritarian. But also it will feel a lot safer because the newspapers won't be printing as many negative stories. Id still rather put up with the Daily Mails stream of bile than not have press freedom personally.

Here is the data on benefits, it's absolutely unsustainable for out of work benefits.

That is so high

6.5 million on out of work benefits according to DwP. That's why we are fucked!

It's crazy how they shot up in 2020. What happened then?

Out of work benefits for sickness/disability are now starting to fall again. They are falling slower than other EU countries post COVID and noone quite knows why. It needs studying because long term they need to fall. It's not sustainable as you say. However, while it might get the juices flowing, knee jerk harsh penalties to "punish" people could well be counterproductive. But the numbers claiming are down this year which is good. I think a gradual reduction to pre COVID levels is more realistic/likely even though that doesn't generate interesting headlines.
Even with out of work benefits falling to.pre 2020 levels though the welfare bill overall will still go up. That's because people are living longer.

Working age benefits are tiny compared to this. Plus, as you raise the retirement age you would expect to see the proportion of working age people on sickness benefits start to go up. Work out why...

Of course it spiked due to Covid but then it clearly falls, until 2024/2025 when it is spiking and forecast to keep rising. Now I wonder what could have caused that?

You claimed above "The 1 million claiming benefits stats are completely wrong" and inferred it was right wing propoganda. You were correct though on the figures because it is 6 x that amount just for out of work benefits

The whole party are just disappointing, they have probably realized it’s much easier being in opposition to actually having to run the country, but then that’s mostly been the case in politics forever to be fair!

The job of the opposition is to hold the current government to account - question what they are doing and make plans for when next in power. I thought they were one of the most useless oppostons we'd had - though current Tory's are worse.

It was a worry at election time the narrative pushed on here was they had done the planning and were just waiting - now they are in goverance we still seem to be waiting and teh narraitive is all stuff will happen in the second term - which I don't think they'll get though not sure who will get in.

Also while I agree it hard to tax the super wealthy the idea it's impossible or not the answer is according to pundits and some journalist I've seen being heavily pushed via various media by the very rich.

That chart in pp is still going up

Number of people on UC highest ever ie 7.7 million

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107124/uk-number-of-people-on-universal-credit/

Thats because they shifted from other benefits largely. And UC is a funny benefit because it will include people working full time (just as hard as you!) and people who can't work at all.
The biggest change in working age people claiming welfare happened after 2020. It was very predictable and happened everywhere. You can't continue to have that many working age people unable to work and it's not going down fast enough. But when you drill down into the details of what is going on it's not largely Shanelle a single mother of 18 kids who wants to sit around all day eating takeaways.

The benefits system has changed massively since the 90s. It is much less generous but people still parrot the talking points from that time. And yes, you might well come back and point out that the overall bill is much higher nowadays despite the fact it is also more punitive. Which is indeed food for thought.

MSM has done a good job on you it seems. The China spy case started 10 years ago.