Is Anyone preparing/hunkering down for 'after the budget'

[IsUnemploymentRising]

The news is today seems to be full of headlines such as unemployment is going up, housing markets are softening, budget is make or break.

Lots of people such as Andrew Bailey quoting things like markets could crash due to debt and AI bubble etc

I just don't see how RR or anyone else for that matter can get us out of our current situation without considerable cutbacks and pain.

Raise Taxes - lots of people think this is maxed out now with rich leaving and businesses already hit (thus rising unemployment)

Cut Benefits - will they try this again. If so what will all the people on benefits actually do to live. Will they all get jobs. Is there jobs?

So are you hunkering down?

Me personally I wish they would just get on with it. I hope to move house in next few years and whilst I'm still committed to it I can see another frozen housing market coming where only forced sellers sell and everyone else sits tight.

I'm retired (although not getting any pensions yet as too young) and definately worried about pension values (ie stock markets, bonds etc). It's very difficult to plan when your pensions are dependant on things outwith your control. (not applicable to those with final salary/defined benefit schemes of course)

State pension is a good 14 years away for me (I'm fully paid up) but I worry it will be eroded when I have built it into my calculations for retirement not to mention the freezing of tax brackets which means we are all getting taxed more each year by stealth.

I'm probably in a better position that many to weather the storm as no mortgage or debts and holding cash etc but even then I worry about our currency being worth nothing soon if they go down the route of printing money again.

Am I being overly pesimestic. I mean how are they actually going to get us out of this. For those on benefits (apart from worrying, being scared etc) how will you actually cope if your benefits are cut.

The LSE has not said the government is spending 70 billion a year on net zero. You didn't link to an article (LSE isn't a paper) but all the reports I read said

1. Talk about the need for the government to spend more
2. Discuss more generally the need for investment

So even if there was an article/report I didn't find saying "the government will need to spend 70 billion a year" that's not the same as "the government is wasting 70 billion a year" in fact it implies almost the opposite.

The reality of net zero is:

1. The billions of investment in net zero Nigel Farage likes to talk about. This is mostly investment from private enterprise. It's not the governments money. So abolishing net zero will save as much for the UK as Brexit saved for the NHS!!!
2. Possible Spending commitments by the government on things like decarbonising public transport. This will cost money. It won't close 100s of billions. You can argue about whether it's a good/bad idea but it's future promises anyway (and you should always be sceptical of big announcements along the lines of we are spending X amount anyway. They tend to exagerate. But not to the extent of billions.)
3. Government investment in things like nuclear, traditional energy infrastructure. It's expensive (not 100s of billions) It needs doing regardless of your opinion on net zero etc (not the nuclear necessarily but if you don't spend on that you need to spend on traditional power stations). Whatever your power source, the government subsidises it.
4. Wasted money on failed insulation schemes. One scheme that went wrong due to poor oversight. Expensive to fix but not in the regions of billions yet alone 100s of billions. Also, something that happened under a different government

I'm not even sold on net zero promises. Some of it is probably corporate greenwashing. But its not coating the UK tax payer hundreds of billions. If you cut net zero you would need to stop private business from investing. Which is an odd thing to do.

@Chewbecca how much income tax do you think people should be paying. It's the lower and middle earners who pay less here vs other European countries.

We've been doing our best to futureproof ourselves within our financial means, ensuring the whole family is protected from any threats to our financial stability. It's not just about the Labour government trying to take everything from us; this has been a plan in motion for a few years now, as we noticed things weren't looking favorable. We're simply taking the necessary steps.

To save money, cut back on unnecessary purchases, prioritize essentials, and include essential fun to maintain a good quality of life. Also, take legal steps to ensure you're not overpaying on taxes.

There aren't enough workers to raise enough money, with the ageing demographics we basically can't afford the current state pension model and the NHS.

True

I have sympathy for people working and seeing a lot of it go in tax. It is depressing especially if your jobs a grind. But, if large segments of the population are able to save so much that they can retire in some cases decades earlier than their pension age and live of their savings/investments then they have been rather well served by society! I'm not shaming anyone for doing that. But through the whole curve of human history it is a unique position. And one facilitated by other.people working/consuming (even shock horror people working but in low paid jobs so they also take benefits). Without those people, the investments people rely on to retire early/retire at all would be worth nothing. There's a deliberate blindness to this/a determination to see the rest of the UK population as scroungers which is really short sighted

Going by your spelling and grammar you appear to be Scottish, so if you’re in Scotland I’d be more worried about the Scottish Government’s tax plans since we already pay more and have powers to vary rUK

There's still more than a month to go, so I'll be darned if I'm going to give it any headspace whatsoever.

The only thing that will really annoy me is if they fiddle with the VAT rate because the implementation has a tiresome and annoying impact on my job (accounts).

In been hunkering down since Labour got elected. I'm expecting the VAT rate to increase to 25%. It would fill the deficit and would mean those who spend the most would make the biggest contribution.

So you agree it should rise? I expect we need at least a penny more, 2p could be absorbed by most if accompanied with decent hikes to the thresholds. IF we get decent public services in return!

Totally agree and those low paid jobs are generally the most crucial jobs in society.

The overworked, underpaid and overlooked hospital cleaner / home carer / carehome worker / bin man suddenly all became essential key workers during Covid while the rest of us stayed home all nice and safe.

It's always funny how people to live in a high tax country, until it is them that have to pay the taxes.

So you agree it should rise? I expect we need at least a penny more, 2p could be absorbed by most if accompanied with decent hikes to the thresholds. IF we get decent public services in return!

No I don't agree. In theory you could increase them at that end but the issue is housing costs.

2p could be absorbed by most if accompanied with decent hikes to the thresholds

Would it actually raise much if you lifted the thresholds?

It's be pointless. They need to lower the thresholds and increase the rate. That would raise more tax.

The cons of net-zero promises in the UK include higher costs, as transitioning to net zero may lead to increased short-term expenses for businesses and consumers due to infrastructure upgrades and renewable energy investments. Economically, job losses in traditional fossil fuel industries could harm local economies, while small businesses might struggle with new regulations and compliance costs. Feasibility concerns exist, as achieving net zero by 2050 may be overly ambitious given current technological limitations and reliance on unproven technologies. Internationally, uneven commitments from other nations could disadvantage the UK in global trade and energy markets. While the UK is an industrial powerhouse, larger industrial nations may prioritize their own interests to avoid losses, creating an imbalance in commitments. The UK and European countries often set ambitious environmental goals rooted in political ideologies, sometimes at the expense of their citizens' quality of life, whereas nations like India and China seem less committed to these efforts. Finally, public skepticism may grow without transparent accountability measures, and limited public involvement in the transition could lead to resistance. People need tangible proof, not just promises, to believe that environmental goals tied to political ideologies will improve their financial situation.

You pay more tax when you earn your income via PAYE (ie working for an employer) than you do when you earn income via a rental, dividends, capital gains on stocks & shares or pension income, - there are a few other niche areas where you can play the system to pay less tax via different forms of investment. Most crudely put, unearned income does not attract NI Contributions but it goes further than this.

We don’t need this. Labour used the last budget as a tax hike and said it was a one off.

The trick is to reduce NI and increase IT so the net cost to an employee is nil but it will increase tax on passive income

NI is a pointless tax used to obfuscate the real tax rate

my in laws in Germany pay more overall but they know exactly where it goes - unemployment benefit, pension, healthcare are all contributions based - I think you get 60% of your salary for 12 months unemployment benefit with a minimum amount. Health insurance mostly provided by employers but a good safety net provided by government. The whole free at the point of use is an alien concept and I think it’s one we can’t afford anymore. We don’t have to follow an American model though. There are others out there

But then they promised all their voters more sweeties so now need to raise more.

The problem is that they are raising money to keep the wolves from the door - not to give new things

hopefully the IMF growth forecasts will have a positive effect on the black hole (which is a fictional number based on forecasts after all)

it’s not a job I envy but I don’t think this government have the foresight to do anything truly game changing.

yes agreed .

We can't afford to improve public services. We need massive tax rises just to stop the debt pile growing. That should make us with a "balanced budget". If we start spending more, it will start growing the debt pile again.

Nail on the head. Employees can't bear any more tax rises.

We can't afford to improve public services. We need massive tax rises just to stop the debt pile growing. That should make us with a "balanced budget". If we start spending more, it will start growing the debt pile again.

But an ageing population means increased NHS and social care costs every year.