Is Anyone preparing/hunkering down for 'after the budget'

[IsUnemploymentRising]

The news is today seems to be full of headlines such as unemployment is going up, housing markets are softening, budget is make or break.

Lots of people such as Andrew Bailey quoting things like markets could crash due to debt and AI bubble etc

I just don't see how RR or anyone else for that matter can get us out of our current situation without considerable cutbacks and pain.

Raise Taxes - lots of people think this is maxed out now with rich leaving and businesses already hit (thus rising unemployment)

Cut Benefits - will they try this again. If so what will all the people on benefits actually do to live. Will they all get jobs. Is there jobs?

So are you hunkering down?

Me personally I wish they would just get on with it. I hope to move house in next few years and whilst I'm still committed to it I can see another frozen housing market coming where only forced sellers sell and everyone else sits tight.

I'm retired (although not getting any pensions yet as too young) and definately worried about pension values (ie stock markets, bonds etc). It's very difficult to plan when your pensions are dependant on things outwith your control. (not applicable to those with final salary/defined benefit schemes of course)

State pension is a good 14 years away for me (I'm fully paid up) but I worry it will be eroded when I have built it into my calculations for retirement not to mention the freezing of tax brackets which means we are all getting taxed more each year by stealth.

I'm probably in a better position that many to weather the storm as no mortgage or debts and holding cash etc but even then I worry about our currency being worth nothing soon if they go down the route of printing money again.

Am I being overly pesimestic. I mean how are they actually going to get us out of this. For those on benefits (apart from worrying, being scared etc) how will you actually cope if your benefits are cut.

Absolutely this . Regularly interview people referred from the job centre and they do their best to throw the interview . Some people literally have no aspiration and are happy to exist on their benefits . I also think so many non workers are now unemployable with no skills at all to offer an employer .

Ok so not ideal but the one that makes you eat too much is doable surely.

Okay you eat too much and put a bit of weight on but that surely does not stop you working.

My depression has never been so bad that I couldn’t work (and I have an amazing boss) but when I tried ADs the dose was either too low so didn’t work or made me so fatigued I couldn’t work!

tbh op your posts come across as very narrow minded about anything outside your sphere of experience.

The benefits system definitely needs reform but we need to make sure we are truly supporting the vulnerable

No, I’ve worked all my life until anxiety just got out of control at 57.

But a lot of people are refractory to anti depressants.

yes but on the subject of poor mental health I am a bit of an expert. Bad enough to qualify for therapy on the NHS. So I am one of the vunerable you refer to.
I still maintain depressed people should be medicated and back to work. That's what I did anyway.

Since you seem to take them and work too then surely we agree on this topic.

And yes I remember starting a new one and being so sleepy until I got used to it I could hardly keep my eyes open at work which was 'tricky'. Just had to keep going till I adjusted to it.

I qualified also for therapy on NHS. However these can be complex cases and don’t always respond to anti depressants.

No I dont take them because they were so debilitating. I self manage.

and tbh, you’re an expert on one person with depression

People with depression should be encouraged to do what they can to lead a full life, including work. But you can’t assume that will work for 100%. There is always going to be a small proportion who need more support.

I know all about anxiety and I had OCD that would get worse the more anxious I got. Often I spent half an hour before I could leave the house checking and rechecking things were off and don't get me started on all the other weird control habits I did.

The point is I still had to go to work. Easy no, possible yes.

If your anxiety is 'out of control' then you have my sympathy. It's a horrible condition but you need to get help to control it and hopefully fix it. Not just stay at home (although at 57 you are nearing retirement anyway surely so why not just start taking your pensions?)

I had to fill in 3 forms last week each with over 100 questions each. It was daunting and exhausting and I wanted to run away. However i did it because it's part of my run up to starting my schema therapy which is for people with complex trauma (and I think often BPD too).

Fixing many mental health issues is not easy and not quick but it can be done (or at least improved) and that's what we should spend money on not giving people benefits to sit at home.

It’s not always that easy though.

I had one that made me shake so much l couldn’t hardly hit the keys in a keyboard or walk.

People are different. I’m a bit of an expert too having been on loads of Ad’s and therapy. But the one thing I’ve learnt is tablets don’t suit everyone or can’t be taken by everyone, and they aren’t an answer to mental health for everyone. I think 40% don’t reap respond and that number gets higher with each different subsequent anti depressant

Don’t patronise me. I worked all my life until then.

Then l got ill health retirement which is almost impossible to get. So l knew how to work through it. But l couldn’t anymore.

For someone who knows so much about mental health have you heard of the ‘kindling’ effect?

okay well thank fuck mine worked is all I can say.

No I hadn't heard of it (just googled it).

I do know all about how the brain does not develop properly in a childhood with lots of fear and trauma so I can well believe that depression changes it too.

So you sound alot like me then. Someone who had struggles but went to work regardless until you reached retirement age.

So I think we agree don't we?

If you were 30 you would be getting help so you could keep working. I mean it sounds like that is what you did do. Same as me.

I think the issue is youngsters who decide they are too depressed/anxious/whatever to work and don't have any intention of returning or trying to get help.

It’s really hard for young generations to get jobs - I look at kids graduating and I really feel for them.

and long term unemployment can have a really detrimental impact on mental health

there's lots of chickens and eggs here and no one seems to know how to get a handle on it

The limit is the same as for UC ie savings over £6k
It wouldn't be discriminatory to change that if they don’t also change the savings limit for UC.

The top up for pensions credit brings pensions £3/wk ( approx ) less than a full state pension and as a full state pension is not within the current level of ‘enough to live on’ the Labour Party would be bringing those pensioners into further poverty. Let’s not forget, it’s not like they can necessarily top it up by working.

In terms of what is affordable there’s also an issue of treating working people the same as pensioners. Or we get into the issue of ageism and discrimination.

If there is a recognised figure for ‘enough to live on’ there is no reason to have a lower one for pensioners. Which they currently do. Widening that gap further is unconscionable.

I don’t doubt they’ll do it because this is the Labour Party

My 30 figure was just based on Labours introduction of the free nursery hours.
It’s a bit of a throw away number, I appreciate, but as that’s the number Labour have used in the past for other things I think it’s fine

Im also conscience of making things too complicated. The more complicated a system the more admin and costs to the tax payer. So no I wouldn’t taper it

I agree @Badbadbunny
this really is the only way to get people into work
If you end up in a job you don’t really want there’s no reason not to look around for something else whilst you’re in work.
That’s what a lot of us have had to do in the past
At least whilst you do it you’re not claiming benefits.

UC is a way of subsidising employment. There aren’t enough jobs and companies aren’t willing to pay more and would probably leave the UK if they had to. So 16 hrs means the people are employed (and not in unemployment statistics) and you can get more people working too

problem is the games played to boost the employment figures aren’t fooling anyone anymore

People are absolutely watching their spending. People self-employed in service industries are noticing the downturn. It ripples out through the economy.

@IsUnemploymentRising
I don’t think the Labour figures can be out yet - given the period of time they’ve been in power.
Adult social care and the other social care services and costs come under local government spend - which can vary depending on county and of course which party is in control there.
I live in a fairly large but densely populated county - bordering London.
The local council is Tory.
Their spends on these services will differ from a Labour led council I’m sure.

I find your take on depression interesting and one thing we do agree on, I have PTSD (but only after I had my DD so it didn’t impact my full time working life (DD meant I couldn’t work because of her disability full time because of lack of childcare or wraparound care).
Going to work (I still can’t work for more than minimum wage in term time only jobs despite having a PhD and years of useful work experience not related to academic life) was one of the things that actually helped.
I came off Sertraline easily once I knew I could get out of the house and actually do something for someone else (I work in a school and I love those kids).
Antidepressants aren’t “the” answer but often - but not always a good start.
I think anxiety and depression are conditions that can destroy people but for many with the right safety measures (as it were, and especially in work) could change lives. I truly do not believe that most people would prefer working with understanding- not all though (I definitely know one such person).
I know I’d be putting time into making life easier for people going to work without pumping money into it if I had power in the government.
on an aside, I’d also let parents who can drive be allowed to take their disabled kids to school without using taxis by realistically reimbursing petrol (that’s one pretty obvious local council funding saving).

Provisions are only statutory because Parliament says they are. As soon as Parliament says they are not they won't be.

I thought this might be happening but it's hard to say unless you are directly impacted. Do you work in that industry yourself?

Neighbours round me still seem to be getting things done to their houses and I'm waiting for a roofer to come fix some tiles (so he must be busy otherwise).

What does this look like when you divide the totals by the number receiving it? A very different story.

The difference with SP too is that we will all (hopefully) receive it one day. It's just like you are saving for your own future. It's a totally different beast to other benefits IMO.

Other areas that have been made a mess of are things like if you are awarded PIP prior to SPA, you receive it for life. With the rise in SPA, the number of people eligible in their 60s is huge. I know you might argue that the cost of disability doesn't go down at SPA but we all know the reality is some claimants spend it on essential equipment or transport etc (say if you have MND for example) but IM personal E and reading threads on MN many actually use it to simply help pay their bills as they are not well enough to work FT. (I am not saying this is wrong btw, it's quite understandable). However, only the former category actually incur material extra costs, the second group potentially don't really need PIP for life once SP kicks in as a substitute wage. (Yes, it is low but the safety net level that's as much as we can afford universally and if you want/ need more - that's what private pensions are for).

Another issue IMO is the disincentive to work / save such as the PC safety net. You constantly see people advising not to save because it's better to be on PC than full new SP. This is crazy. Not to mention people who are on PC because they haven't even been in the country for half their life or worked cash in hand.

Sadly crap customer service is also a factor with the service industry. Prices have shot up, people have less money with the cost of living crisis, but when you add in crap customer service (poor food quality, surly staff etc), you've a perfect storm that's dragging service industries down.

People will still spend IF and only IF they get good customer service. We've a ridiculously expensive pub/restaurant in our village. But the service is exceptional and the food is freshly cooked by their own in house chef (not reheated from out of a 3663 lorry). You have to book in advance and would have very little chance of a table if you just turn up randomly.

I read similar from Jeremy Clarkson's new place, i.e. high prices, very busy, but exceptional food and service.

Firms need to take a long hard look at themselves. Cutting costs by providing poor quality food, and/or cutting staff or reducing staff quality is false economy. The race to the bottom works for supermarkets, online retail, etc., where everyone is competing to be the cheapest for selling identical homogenous items, but it doesn't work for the service industries.

I agree. There's no incentive for people on relatively low incomes to strive and save as they'd be better just claiming PC upon retirement as they know that whatever extra income/pension they get from their own savings reduces, pound for pound, their PC entitlement. And I also echo your comments about those who've never worked or worked cash in hand, etc and don't have enough NIC credits - they get PC anyway, so why bother trying to fund their own old age via savings and/or NIC credits.

Agree. A large increase in benefits is due to 'mental health'. It's mushroomed and it's not helpful. Those with e.g. anxiety and mild (even severe) depression would do much better being in a structured work environment where there is flexibility.

Also, lots of councils are on their knees due to the increase in 'special needs', many very mild (to the extend the children quite easily seem to achieve A/A*) but gets extra time by getting private 'labels'. Before someone shoots me down, I'm not referring to those who are desperately in need of help and support here. This is the middle classes (I'm in this group) who want to have an explanation as to why Johnny or Emma are not in the top set. Also in addition to the aforementioned, ND diagnoses, should not automatically lead to DSA at uni etc. Or at least make it means tested!

BUT improve the rate of employment benefits so people can genuinely live on them (though time limited). At the moment, too many people - many are under 25s due to tough grad market - have to apply for disability benefits because the unemployment payments are just not enough. And once they're in the disability loop they're there forever.