Is Anyone preparing/hunkering down for 'after the budget'

[IsUnemploymentRising]

The news is today seems to be full of headlines such as unemployment is going up, housing markets are softening, budget is make or break.

Lots of people such as Andrew Bailey quoting things like markets could crash due to debt and AI bubble etc

I just don't see how RR or anyone else for that matter can get us out of our current situation without considerable cutbacks and pain.

Raise Taxes - lots of people think this is maxed out now with rich leaving and businesses already hit (thus rising unemployment)

Cut Benefits - will they try this again. If so what will all the people on benefits actually do to live. Will they all get jobs. Is there jobs?

So are you hunkering down?

Me personally I wish they would just get on with it. I hope to move house in next few years and whilst I'm still committed to it I can see another frozen housing market coming where only forced sellers sell and everyone else sits tight.

I'm retired (although not getting any pensions yet as too young) and definately worried about pension values (ie stock markets, bonds etc). It's very difficult to plan when your pensions are dependant on things outwith your control. (not applicable to those with final salary/defined benefit schemes of course)

State pension is a good 14 years away for me (I'm fully paid up) but I worry it will be eroded when I have built it into my calculations for retirement not to mention the freezing of tax brackets which means we are all getting taxed more each year by stealth.

I'm probably in a better position that many to weather the storm as no mortgage or debts and holding cash etc but even then I worry about our currency being worth nothing soon if they go down the route of printing money again.

Am I being overly pesimestic. I mean how are they actually going to get us out of this. For those on benefits (apart from worrying, being scared etc) how will you actually cope if your benefits are cut.

Part of the problem disabled people have is discrimination in the workplace and not having the correct support from employers.

and as for mh conditions - someone with severe depression is not going to cope - again they need support. And someone with adhd - u fortunately a lot of them will struggle too. Add to that the fact job vacancies are seriously down and it makes it even harder

there is a line to be drawn but I don’t think it’s up to people with no medical etc experience to decide what should and shouldn’t be considered a disability

having said all that, the government went through a phase of increasing sickness benefit so that they could massage the unemployment figures down

we need some sensible people to do a root and branch review of these things - but the government will probably just get some consultants in and pay a load of money for generic advice.

Existing rules allow for "improvements" to be an allowable expense against capital gains for your current/past main residence if it's not fully exempt due to the main residence relief rules, so yes, "improvements" ARE allowable. It's "repairs" that aren't as they can only be set against income, such as rental income during the time it was rented out (if relevant). So things like extensions, improvements to heating systems, loft conversions, etc are all off-settable against capital gains, just not "like for like" repairs/replacements.

They don’t top up full state pensions with UC at all. That’s the point. Pensioners only get pension credit if they are not on the full state pension
Nothing will change there. The point is full state pensions are clearly below what is regarded as a liveable income

I doubt the UC calc will change. I’d like to see the working hours requirement increased to 30 hours
(for each person including couples ) from 16hours
( which is very low, for a couple that’s 8hours a week each! )

Again, sad but true. It seems no one can discuss these things anymore. Like the winter fuel allowance, potential scrapping of the triple lock, changes to disability benefits, etc. The media always whips it up and everyone finds a "Great Aunt Edna" who'll be massively detrimentally affected, not mentioning the huge majority of people who could cope with the proposed change.

I agree, the minimum working hours are an absolute joke. Even 30 is too low. Maybe have a tapered requirement, so relatively low upon first claiming, increasing in increments over say 2-3 years, up to at least 30 PER PERSON, at say the 4 year from first claim point of time. Give plenty of time for someone to find work with more hours, take on more shifts, take a second job, etc., but ultimately, stop/limit the claim if they don't.

That’s capital gains. It’s not relevant for a property which is your main residence atm

Removing PRR completely from home owners is different.
Home owners have personal benefit from those improvements. That’s the current reasoning and I wouldn’t be surprised if Labour stuck with that as a reason to tax the full uplift.

Although a tax on an increase in floor area to a home I think could be a way to tax developing of a home.

But the proposal IS capital gains on the main residence and the easiest way of achieving that is to remove the main residence relief. So "improvements" WILL be allowable as they are in exactly the same way as if you rent out your home, i.e. pro-rata based on time lived in it as your home compared with total time. Currently if you live in your home for say 5 years and then rent it out for 5 years, you get 50% of the cost AND improvements allowed by virtue of the "gain" being exempt by 50% due to time based pro-rata. Unless rules are changed further, nothing to suggest that the improvements won't be added to base cost when calculating CGT.

Assuming the original cost (base cost) is allowable, then no reason at all why improvements won't be an allowable expense. By your logic, the cost wouldn't be allowable either as they've benefitted by living in it, which is clearly nonsense.

Well let’s hope so

Ots still an absolute disgrace to tax a persons home and a false economy
People will stop improvements. There’s no way a kitchen you’ve used will be allowed as a deduction because you’ve had the benefit of it. Same with bathrooms and repairs in general.
The building industry will take a hit on that and
Lots if people just won’t move house. Those in larger properties won’t downsize and the tax man will lose stamp on the purchase of those properties
There will be no benefit to the treasures with those losses and no benefit to people who want to buy

If it’s brought in it’s just another I’ll thought out Labour policy !

Potentially a vote winner as so many of the policies of envy are.

You are rightly very nervous because Rachel blinking Reeves has no fucking idea what she is doing. Labour are financially illiterate and completely incompetent. You are watching a slow motion car crash before your very own eyes.

You can make some notes and share your experience with future GC much like we did when this happened in the 1970s.

If the current demographic of pensioners is richer than the middle aged and young, then surely the common sense approach is that they are made to use those riches to support themselves and we let go of the idea of pensions for all? Because the young need money in their pockets now. Once people start believing there won’t be a state pension left for them ,they won’t work or stay here. I really think we are doing this wrong right now given these generational wealth issues. We are still harking back to a welfare system that was implemented after WW2 for a reason. Things have completely changed now. The problem is the fact that the voters are in the ageing demographic so hold all the political power. Someone somewhere in Europe with these pyramid system is going to have to be brave and change the whole structure.

Nail on the head. We've had fiscal drag and loads of incremental changes that have hit the younger population plus huge things like tuition fees, student loan repayments, workplace pensions, housing costs, etc. Things that havn't affected the older generation by anywhere near so much. We need to re-address the balance as to get out of this catastrophic financial mess, we need people to work, innovate, etc and need a relaunch of entreprenneurialism, and that needs to be the younger adults doing it as the retirees can't/won't, so we need to nurture and encourage the young, not penalise them and make them think their own way to succeed is emigrate, nor expect a life on benefits.

@IsUnemploymentRising
They can’t stop taxis for special needs school attending children - it’s Statutory Law that children get to school safely- schools are so few they are not often within walking distance and…. Not even family with SEND children drive or can afford a car.
i was having a look at social care spending.
Partly my curiosity was peaked by the pp who spoke about the excessive spend on some complex cases in Devon.
That pp didn’t specify that they meant children in care.
Heres some of the figures:
Looked after children (not SEND children) -
£318,000 a year per child placed in residential care.
Over 1,500 children cost more than £10,000 a week.
£5.4 billion a year for children in care.

None of that refers to the care of severely disabled or disabled children (they are not looked after children). I’m hanging on about this to show how crazily expensive residential care is.

It’s my personal gripe re disability and some rhetoric around how much disability costs I know but I was curious to see the breakdown of expenditure.

From 23/24
£32 billion on adult social care.
£3.6 billion on SEND provision (admin, taxis, ed pyschs, central costs).
Early years care £4 billion.
DLA -£6.8 billion
PIP £21.7 billion
Attendance Allowance - 6.6 billion
UC - 51.8 billion
Pension (state) - £124 billion
Pension Credit - £5.4 billion.

SEND provision and early years provision pale in comparison to pensions and PIP. That’s why those 2 benefits are the most likely targets…By this government at any rate

Sorry autocorrect.. not “peaked” 😊

Nailed it
Labour do it every time

Statutory law and things that apply now can be removed.

Thats how it works when a Government wants to change things
So the right to transport to school can all be taken away
Just as other rights have been

@Araminta1003
that would result in legal challenges by all pensioners because
the payments throughout their working lives are purely for a pension on retirement

Its not legally possible
It could be in the future if Labour work that into the tax. But it can’t now or for any person paying in currently

@BrownTroutBluesAgain

that would result in legal challenges by all pensioners because
the payments throughout their working lives are purely for a pension on retirement

No it wouldn't/isn't. NIC isn't just for state pension, it's entitlement towards lots of different benefits and part of it is also "ring fenced" towards the NHS.

Assuming your numbers quoted are correct and I'm not going to check myself then that is very interesting to see and I appreciate you posting it.

The big numbers are then pensions, PIP and UC, Adult social care.

Some people have posted good ideas re UC and having to work more hours to claim it. That sounds really, really sensible. I can't believe how few hours they have to work to claim it. That is a complete fucking joke.

PIP - Sorry but I think anyone who is depressed/anxious should get antidepressants and back to work for them. I speak from personal experience and I was never off work with it. However it is bad enough that I qualify for therapy on the NHS (just assessed this year). So I do know what I am speaking about re that topic.

Pensions - I'm guessing they will push the age up again and perhaps remove the triple lock and make the increases smaller each year or something. Combined with tax band freezes this is being eroded whether we like it or not.

AA - this is another one they could easily means test. My mother got £350 per month. In all fairness she used this in part to pay me my 'wage' so it was being used for her care. Still must be loads of pensioners who would fail the means test.

Means testing the WFA was good and they should do that again. Also there are things like free bus passes for over 60 that should be made for a higher age group now like state pension age and over.

Adult social care - is that old people that get carers in their own homes plus council run care homes or does it cover disabled people in care homes too. Not sure. It's a big number though and I think they need to stop offering carers at home to old people unless they can pay for them themselves.

Same with the care in the community - it's a great idea but must cost far more than the way it was done before.

I'd want to see all the goverment expenditure before I commented further.

There you go Rachael. I've just helped you quite a bit I would think.

Have all these welfare numbers increased though since labour came in? These are the numbers from the Tory time aren't they.

I don't think you should count on any 'laws' meaning something will stay ie taxis for children. They will soon amend the laws to suit themselves.

I mean look at pensions they were always outwith your estate for IHT purposes until they changed that rule and I think it's from next year that your pension will now be included and subject to IHT like the rest of your estate.

Not to mention taxing gains when you sell your only house. That used to be sacred and now it's being talked seriously about. So it seems nothing is off the table.

SEND does look like a small number I agree but it depends on how many children that is for. I mean I don't think anyone minds a sensible fig per child but that number could be small no children x huge expense or large no children x acceptable expense.

someone with severe depression can work. They just need to be medicated. I speak from personal experience. (severe enough that I qualified for therapy on the NHS starting soon although it is for a mixture of things including complex trauma). On a high does of antidepressants for over 10 years. Never missed work because of it.

apologies you are correct. Pensioners don't get UC. So they will have to make pension credit harder to get then by changing the limit to qualify. Else there is no point reducing pensions but then topping it back up with pension credit. The end number will be the same.

Regardless of whether that provides a good standard of living in retirement. We have to balance what we can afford with what we can provide.

Depends if you can find one that works though, I’ve struggled with unmanageable side effects from all of them.

Yep - me too.

if only meds were a panacea that sorted everything out but unfortunately they don’t help everyone. Same with adhd meds

i do think work is good for mental health though and it should be part of a holistic approach

what do you class as unmanageable enough to stop you working? I mean I got nausea, fatigue, strange dreams, dry mouth. None of them stopped me working and my health was still better on them than off them.

I can't imagine a side effect that would make you so ill you can't work and that none of them are suitable. Happy for you to tell me otherwise but I'm cynical.

Meds don't fix everything and yes there are side effects. They probably make you well enough to work in some capacity though.

You know how everyone says how difficult it is to get therapy on the NHS now because the bar is so high etc.

Well mine must be pretty bad (and that's no surprise to me) that I qualified easily for it this year. The clinical psychologist had a 50 minute appointment to assess me and she had me in there for almost 2 hours and wasn't pushing me out. (Clearly more fucked up than I even thought!). I'm getting schema therapy which is for complex trauma which comes with plenty of depression, anxiety, OCD and self destructive behaviours. Had it all my life from scary and chaotic childhood so it isn't new. Strangely enough I always worked. Easy no, possible yes.

So on the topic of this I do feel qualified to answer.

And yes I know everyone is different and everyone reacts differently etc but to say none of the drugs are suitable just cannot be true.

They caused unbearable anxiety in 4 cases. Nearly admitted. 2 caused itching and 2 caused severe allergies that needed treating with steroids. One made me suicidal. Two made me eat for England, and the one I’m currently on does this and l hate it. But l need it.

When I’m not on medication my appetite is small.