Is Anyone preparing/hunkering down for 'after the budget'

[IsUnemploymentRising]

The news is today seems to be full of headlines such as unemployment is going up, housing markets are softening, budget is make or break.

Lots of people such as Andrew Bailey quoting things like markets could crash due to debt and AI bubble etc

I just don't see how RR or anyone else for that matter can get us out of our current situation without considerable cutbacks and pain.

Raise Taxes - lots of people think this is maxed out now with rich leaving and businesses already hit (thus rising unemployment)

Cut Benefits - will they try this again. If so what will all the people on benefits actually do to live. Will they all get jobs. Is there jobs?

So are you hunkering down?

Me personally I wish they would just get on with it. I hope to move house in next few years and whilst I'm still committed to it I can see another frozen housing market coming where only forced sellers sell and everyone else sits tight.

I'm retired (although not getting any pensions yet as too young) and definately worried about pension values (ie stock markets, bonds etc). It's very difficult to plan when your pensions are dependant on things outwith your control. (not applicable to those with final salary/defined benefit schemes of course)

State pension is a good 14 years away for me (I'm fully paid up) but I worry it will be eroded when I have built it into my calculations for retirement not to mention the freezing of tax brackets which means we are all getting taxed more each year by stealth.

I'm probably in a better position that many to weather the storm as no mortgage or debts and holding cash etc but even then I worry about our currency being worth nothing soon if they go down the route of printing money again.

Am I being overly pesimestic. I mean how are they actually going to get us out of this. For those on benefits (apart from worrying, being scared etc) how will you actually cope if your benefits are cut.

it will affect you although it might be temporary. Your pension values will change according to market reaction. You might lose your ISA entitlement as RR is talking about it. Your taxes will probably change.

None of these things might be any concern for you but I'd be really surprised if you were not impacted in some way.

Also note there is talk of taxing gains when you sell your main house so that might impact you.

but that's like saying everyone else is fucked so it's fine if we are fucked too.

Or did I miss the point?

Yes I expect to be impacted.
If they attempt to tax my home ( at point of sale) though in terms of uplift and ignore the hundreds of thousands we have spent on repairs and structural work to our listed building, when we bought it as an utter wreck, then I will take them to court

As a pp, on I think another thread commented, they have no right to treat me any differently than a developer. They get to offset their costs.

As a homeowner they will be treating me worse in fact.

Our listed buildings and heritage will be left to rot if they introduce such a policy

I think everyone is going to be impacted going forward. Pensioners and children and dole benefits. There is no other way.

If you have done structural/renovation work you should be able to claim those costs as capital expenditure

the issue for me is that, living in London, my house pay well fall in the taxable bracket. If I have to pay CGT and then stamp duty on a new property then I can’t afford to move.

I haven’t looked into how much this would raise, but I quite like a simple idea like putting up all income tax by 1% and reducing all benefits (including state pension) by 1%. That way everyone contributes a bit to getting the country out of the hole.

I agree - if she is in a wheelchair with both of her legs cut off then she probably needs to stay on benefits.

If she's got anxiety/depression/ADHD then sorry she can work. And I speak as someone who has experienced mental health problems myself.

Alot of people in this country can't work. Lets see what happens when their benefits are cut. I'm guessing lots will suddenly find they can.

You do realise that when we pay someone to not work we are going to the empty UK purse and borrowing more money and then giving that money to the person not working. So giving it to them and taking it from the rest of the country.

Okay I know that is oversimplified but unless she is seriously disabled or has downs or something then I bet she can work in some form.

Yes I have lots of empathy for dogs without homes or treated badly but I still can't help most of them cos I can't afford it. So it upsets me, I recognise it is not 'right' but if I can't afford it then I can't afford it. Unless I follow the UK example and put myself into debt so I can donate to the dog charities.

Yes I had empathy for my parents but I only looked after them because they paid me. If they couldn't afford this then I would have had to stay in my job and they would have just had to manage without me.

I can feel badly for animals or people and still recognise that I (the UK) am too broke myself to help them.

I agree - if she is in a wheelchair with both of her legs cut off then she probably needs to stay on benefits.

You say that, but I actually work with quite a few wheelchair users - not sure if any are double amputees but there’s no reason to assume that just because someone’s in a wheelchair that they can’t work.

UK is expected to be the second fastest growing economy in the G7 in the next year. Heard it on radio 4 Today programme last week so inclined to believe it.

I’m a floating voter, btw, @EasternStandard .

I agree with you actually but was too scared to say that based on the shit I am getting for daring to suggest we cut benefits and get people back to work.

Existing CGT rules allow for property improvements to be set against the gain for those who've rented out their previous home, so it's highly unlikely that such costs won't be allowable if CGT is imposed on the main residence as some are suggesting, so you've nothing to worry about.

The point is morally if individual people are taking advantage of the benefits system by all means let's stop that. But it won't make a difference to the overall government spending.

You can talk and talk about "difficult decisions" but the bulk of welfare spending is on pensions and it will continue to grow. Even if you put all the disabled children in asylums. Even if you let people on UV starve. It might give some people a warm glow that someone is being punished but it won't help. In fact cuts for the sake of cuts will cost the country more. You see this with cuts to physical health/mental health early intervention causing greater numbers of homeless people or people on sickness benefits. It's a fetishization of austerity to want it for the sake of doing something.

I am not saying "everyone is fucked so it's fine". I'm saying doing things that are not only cruel but counterproductive is an even worse response than nothing. In the long term either we boost productivity, or we raise taxes, or people like you jump of a cliff at the age of 65. I really really don't want you to have to jump of a cliff. I don't want to jump of a cliff either. So it's likely they will need to raise revenue with taxes. At least in the short term. All your "action plans" rely on the idea there's a massive pot of money available from cutting working age benefits. There just isn't. You want to think you are somehow more practical/facing reality in calling for this but it's a fantasy.

We aren't completely fucked. Part of the reason bond yields grew this year** is because the bank of England is selling of the bonds it bought during quantative easing. They are doing this faster than other countries. Arguably thats bad, because it gives the government a big short term headache. But it also sets the UK on a better footing going forward which is why I suspect the BoE is doing it- future proofing against future shocks. Im not qualified to say if its right or wrong. But it is harsh medecine being administered now rather than kicking the can down the road. Something people say they want. And the result is loan repayments costing the government more short term. And an additional challenge for the Chancellors budget that might be reflected in tax rises. Not economic collapse/bond default.

**Not the only reason. Also higher interest rates comparatively. Again there's an argument for that but it has costs.

Nope - growth headline looks positive (although still very low). Look at it per capita and it is a different story. We are almost at the bottom for growth.

Great short video by Ed Conway Sky News on You Tube. Yes he acknowledges the headline growth looks like we are doing okay but delve deeper and nope......

I think plenty of us agree that benefits need to be cut and people got back to work. But whenever it is suggest the scroungers come up with edge cases as if that applies to everyone who doesn't work.

Yes, I agree, being in a wheelchair on it's own doesn't stop someone working. Yes, it may limit their work opportunities, but there are a lot of jobs that such people could do assuming no other disabilities, especially now so many jobs are work from home or internet based.

One of my clients was severely disabled, which I didn't know as I service most of my clients remotely via the internet (small business accountant), many of whom live all over the UK and some abroad. He started his own virtual office business, doing registered office, mailbox and phone answering services basically a "front" where he spent his time advertising and marketing services which he contracted out to other firms to actually do the work! It was many years before he mentioned he was disabled. It turns out he was severely disabled and could barely move any of his limbs, but a remote/internet business worked perfectly for him, literally sat at his desk all day using adapted keyboards, screens, etc.

Before I get roasted, I'm not saying everyone could do that, but just to counter the suggestion that just because someone was severely disabled, they weren't able to do any work at all.

Sad but true.

Although if you put the full state pension into a UC calculator as an earned income for someone of working age, it clearly states you will be entitled to a financial benefit

As UC recognises below living wage then that means pensions are below the living wage

Per capita growth needs improved productivity. We are bad at productivity so there's room for change there. But then there's still a trade of...
Do you implement policies that make employers employ a certain number of people with learning difficulties or physical disabilities? Great for getting people back to work. But in the short term possibly more cost to businesses if they have to adapt procedures/workspaces. And in some cases lower productivity**. Otherwise a lot of employers will, if given a choice between 2 equal candidates, choose the one not in a wheelchair. It's wrong but it's life.

**The most efficient person I know was a wheelchair user. So it's not like those with disabilities are always going to be less productive. But someone with a disability returning to work after a long abscence might well be at least to begin with. And if you want a physically disabled person to be able to work they need transport to get there. Either their own adapted car. Or decent public transport that's accessible to wheelchair users etc. Both of which involve.... Spending money!

Currently no you can’t. It’s not a development project as we live in it.

This is the crux of the issue

I think we have to revise pensions as well. They are already by increasing the age to retire and I think this will continue to go up. They are also about to start taxing the state pension by virtue of the frozen tax bands.

I'm not saying pensions should be left untouched. I'm just saying pensions has been promised to everybody for as long as we can remember. Change will have to be phased in so people have time to prepare.

I won't be jumping off a cliff at 65 (actually 67 for me when I get SP currently). If I end up with just my private pensions and absolutely no state pension which is worst case scenario I will downsize to a smaller property and or take out equity release and or take in lodger (least favourite option). None of them fill me with joy but if needs must.

Getting a part time job is a possibility but that will be for more reasons that just money ie social interaction etc

I agree with you but was just too scared to say it. If you even suggest people should go back to work and not just believe them when they say the can't then you are on a par with the devil on here.

That all seems like a great plan! If that's your version of hunkering down then I'm glad for you. I just don't think that people in my income bracket are being persecuted by likely tax rises. I don't think I'm being persecuted by the fact the state pension will be much much higher for me than it is for you. I don't think making another posters disabled child be cared for in an asylum will have any impact on whether people like you or me need to downsize or take in lodgers. There's very little saving to be had there is my whole point. The juice is gone, the pips are squeaking.

@MrsSkylerWhitelook at per capita

I understand. However the UC calculator will have to be changed so people only get help at a much lower level (that's if UC exists at all).

They are not going to cut pensions and then top them back up to the same level with UC. That would achieve nothing.