Thread 34 Starmer - Conference Swanwiches and a Deputy Leader contest

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Previous thread

www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5411278-thread-33-starmer-gerst-monath?page=40&reply=147446478

You should see a doctor about that.

Interesting thread.

With the government bringing in new restrictions against immigration, many people assume net immigration will nevertheless remain high. However, the evidence actually suggests that immigration will fall dramatically over the coming years and reach lows not seen for decades (pandemic aside). (1/x)
https://bsky.app/profile/jamesbowes01.bsky.social/post/3m2eousxjlc2b

Very interesting- the government also hopes to stop the carer visa in 28/29, which must be substantial numbers, though I expect are already dropping as carer dependent visa was stopped a while ago. How will these roles be filled though? Not sure losing high skilled visa applicants, or the uptake not planning to remain, is good. Unless of course we can fill these jobs in the U.K.

Forgot to add - will anyone believe the figures in 28/29? For some if they see a non white person, or hear of an asylum seeker it will mean migration is too high - some personally prejudiced but much driven by current media/frog 😞

I think it explains the current drive to a) demonise migration and b) bounce Labour into an early election.

Labour will be able to evidence falling numbers .
Re: social care visa - it’s Labour’s plan to increase wages and set up review body as equivalent of DDRB (medics)in the hope of making social care more attractive.

Conservative conference starts today, they want to copy US ICE and join Russia in leaving the ECHR

That's quite a drop-dead moment for campaigning. surely ?

I don't care what any of their other policies are, I couldn't vote for a candidate whose party has that as official policy.

Which may explain why my local FB feed is full of "Your local candidate" signatures - although people are always on hand to explain that it's the conservatives in shame.

There is a precedent. You'd need a microscope and blacklight to find any mention of the Conservative Party in their 1945 manifesto.

Yes, but that's all tending to the factz.

And we know, factz matter not, when you can pull on the feelz.

I thought Jenrick had already announced those things!

I’d like to see Badenoch have a good conference. If she has to pretend ICE and leaving the ECHR will cure all ills so be it. The Tories will never pick up the One Nationers now (Davey will be happy) so she may as well try to split the hard right.

But we all know that the SC judges in the Rwanda ruling went to great pains to point out that they didn’t felt upon the ECHR when finding against the Government.

I guess pulling out of the Convention against Torture is less headline worthy and wouldn’t mean they could role back employment protections.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/supreme-court-rwanda-rishi-sunak-response

"Does the ECHR stop states from controlling their borders?"

No. The ECHR Court emphasises migration policies are up to states themselves.

"But the ECHR stops the UK from deporting foreign criminals."

No, it doesn't.

Successful human rights-based appeals against deportation are very rare.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-15171980

Yep.

Japan has always had very restrictive immigration policies and only 3% of their population is foreign born. However, Japan has also seen a huge populist swing against immigrants/increased hostility towards people that look non-Japanese. It's not that less immigration=happier people.
The goalposts will always shift because however much you restrict migration you can always restrict it more. And as soon as one outgroup is removed another outgroup is found. Or vice versa. The way the narrative shifted post Brexit from "too many Polish people" to "Polish people aren't a problem. They work hard. It's...." was noticeable. Even if we had zero migration there would be someone else to feel angry at.

Immigration from the 70s onwards had lots of benefits. Saying this gets you mischaracterised as some out of touch rich person who is happy because she gets cheap takeaways and builders so who cares about the common folk. But ordinary working people also need their boilers fixed and enjoy getting takeaway. I don't think it's the worst thing if eating out/takeaways become more expensive and rather. But people will still feel as if their lives are worse. Even if they also support lower migration.

The government can't win basically.

The goalposts will always shift because however much you restrict migration you can always restrict it more.

Really we are making immigration the drugs of the century. No amount of banning them will work, and someone will always step in to make money from the illegality.

Know who is most scared by legalising drugs ? Drug dealers. And that tells you all you need to know about who is paying for the laws to remain tight.

Immigration from the 70s onwards had lots of benefits.

One of my best friends at school was a refugee from Amins Uganda.

More recently, the 'chicken nugget' case

https://www.ein.org.uk/news/academic-report-exposes-inaccuracies-media-reporting-immigration-and-human-rights-law

https://www.lbc.co.uk/article/jewish-leaders-israel-tommy-robinson-invite-5HjdDxB_2/
Leaders of Britain’s Jewish community have criticised an Israeli minister for inviting “thug” Tommy Robinson to visit the country.

"The goalposts will always shift because however much you restrict migration you can always restrict it more."

Which why Farage extended his policy announcement on IDL. Make it retrospective.
He will know that the Government will be able to evidence dropping numbers by 2028/9 so he will need to keep going further, bringing ever more people within the circle.
The Tories will try to match him and go further.

It wont matter what it will do to the economy. It wont matter what it costs. Keeping move the goalposts.

Fortunately we have a highly independent minded media owned by politically neutral individuals that don't have vested interests in the outcomes. So thats good.

Absolutely fascinating - thanks for sharing that.

Thank you. Unfortunately the great British public doesn’t appear able to comprehend nuance and has no interest in facts.

The parallels between the "War on Drugs" and immigration rhetoric are more striking than I casually suggested.

Both seem to be fuelled by having to up ante every few years so that there is a newer, scarier and (most critically) in need of money attention, which is secured by scaring the taxpayer public With a creeping tendency to deport ban what was previously legal. Arguably high street vape shops are the nexus ...

I think it's telling that in order to find someone with the precise views they wanted, they had to invite someone who wasn't even British Jewish.

War on drugs. War on immigration. Trickle down economics.

None of the above works.

A double dose of Brexit -

If people needed reminders of what Brexit has done to us all, 12 October will come as a jolt. That’s when the EU finally begins its long-delayed stricter border checks, with a new entry-exit system (EES). At the border, the system will take not just passports, but fingerprints and photographs, storing data to enforce the rule that no Britons can stay in the Schengen area for more than 90 out of any 180 days. (Take note, opponents of digital IDs: it’s already there for anyone holidaying on the continent.) A €20, three-year visa is due to come in next year. Thank you, David Cameron, Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/oct/03/brexit-conservatives-european-convention-human-rights-echr

Mosque fire being treated as arson and hate crime
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm2dglp43xmo

Being minimised on another thread and also eliciting some anti-semitism.

Mumsnet - covering all the racism bases. It is pretty depressing on here right now.