Chance of a general election next year and Reform winning?

[Confused78]

They are winning in the polls it seems. I've been watching Nigel Farage's Instagram, he really just talks common sense. I find myself agreeing with a lot of what he says.
I'm definitely not far right and I'm not a leftie,
I think I'm somewhere in the middle.
But I am sick of Conservative and Labour and think it's time to give a new party a chance, especially if they are going to properly tackle illegal immigrants coming over and the ones that are already here.
I don't necessarily agree with his call to deport those with Indefinite leave to remain however.

People vote very differently in local elections compared to General Elections though.

But no, Labour won't call a GE. Reform will no doubt do well locally next year. Then they will spend the next 3 years fucking up, getting done for racism, corruption and the odd bit of child porn as per outcomes to date. And that's if they don't eat each other up with infighting, fracturing and internal corruption. Anyone who thinks Reform are the solution to the UK's woes needs to go back to school. Primary school.

Can you provide sources to all of that please?

Yes easily.

Where’s the blame?
Comparing. That’s all n
Though if you think 14 years of shit can be cleared up in 14 months, you might need to have a little reconsider.
Edit - taxes are high because Tories increased them. Only employer NI and IHT for farmers has changed since Labour got in.

And here are more

So you think claiming that immigrants eat swans is talking sense? I despair of this country, I really do.

(Royal parks have rejected the claims and the RSPCA have said the video claiming to be of an RSPCA officer is fake, in case it wasn't ludicrous enough for you to not realise it's bollocks)

There won't be an election next year, it would be suicide for labour so of course they won't call one.

No you said "Taxes are at their highest for decades - because of Tory tax rises" ie blaming the Tories and also being plain wrong. Labour refuse to cut spending hence they constantly have to raise taxes. We have a higher national debt now than we did under Tories when Labour took over

Reform would eat itself alive in government. It takes a great deal of discipline for a party to get along well enough to govern, and that discipline tends to be seen in politicians who are practical and can compromise

(See post-Brexit Tories, or SNP for recent good examples)

Donald Trump is a powerful leader with a strong PR machine. Nigel Farage is benefiting from that PR machine right now, but I don't think it will help him to keep a party of Reform MPs in line. Farage is not that strong.

I am glad we have some breathing room. Farage will fall with Trump. Hopefully, Trump will fall before he does something outrageously awful.

I live in Wales and am a bit worried, but everything under Welsh Labour is so outrageously bad I am not sure what Reform could do. Its not like Wales has its own immigration policy and what could they possibly do to our schools and NHS that Labour haven't done. We have failing health trusts, a mind-bogglingly stupid Curriculum for Wales, and a 20 mph speed limit that isn't enforced. And I am left leaning

Ok well if you vote for me I will give everyone a million pounds, 14 unicorns and unlimited jelly tots. Don't worry about how I'm going to pay for it, just vote for me and I'll do what I can...

Put it on the side of a bus. All that money for the NHS

The first budget RR did she put up NI on businesses to kill the economy. LH gave train drivers massive pay increase. All public servants got a pay rise and billions extra spent on NHS. All the spending from borrowing more money.

Tories were still blaming Labour after 14 years in power so sauce, goose...

Higher taxes and borrowing. The cost of the latter is very high.

So you're just sinking to their level then? Its fine cos the next party in can just blame Labour then.....that OK too?

Yep, it's just a load of hype

This is just one reason not to contemplate voting for Reform. Farage is a liar, a charlatan and a manipulative shit. He will say anything to get into power: it's not about 'common sense', it's about playing on people's fears to stir up division and make folk think he's the solution. He's utterly venal, nasty and dangerous. Educate yourself on Reform's actual policies and the nature of many people who represent and support them. Then use your powers of critical thinking. If you still think he's for you, then nothing that anyone on the internet says will change your mind.

Re what Reform might do in Wales if they were in charge, one obvious measure would be to bring student finance in Wales in line with the system in England. Student finance in Wales is currently much more generous than in England. Everyone in Wales can borrow enough maintenance loan to live off regardless of parental household income and every student gets at least some grant, with the ratio of grant to loan going up for students from lower income households. Students in England don't get grants, and the maximum loan is only available to students from households with an income of £25,000 or less (and even maximum loan is realistically not enough to live off if you go to university somewhere more expensive like Bristol).

I guess another thing Reform could do in Wales would be to bring prescription charges in line with England rather than everyone getting free prescriptions.

Have a google - it’s laughably pathetic and highly misinformed. Will Hayward covered the whole thing very well.

I thought it was…
we chuckled at this as my husband worked there as an engineer. No sense at all.

Reform is very unlikely to get a chance to do any of this, though. They won't get a majority under the new PR system in 2026, possibly no party ever will. It will be coalitions all the way. Even a coalition with the Tories won't give Reform a majority, going by current polling.
Eta: it is England that is out of line with the rest of the UK when it comes to prescriptions. They are free everywhere except England.

It's how politics is. Why are Labour always held to higher standards than the Tories? Meanwhile, back in the real world - were you naive enough to think that 14 years of neglect could be fixed in less than 18 months?

There's slow progress and then there's making things worse. Labour chose the latter option. Purposely chose to make things worse.

Labour are dealing with immigration.

Listen to everyone not just the loudest person in the room.

And why would they call an election when they have 4 years? Why would t they spend those 4 years trying to make a dent in the damage done by the previous party over 14?

And honk wouldn’t hire for them as they are a single issue party and I’ve never voted in single issues. It doesn’t bode well for the ability to deal with a country as a whole.

This is what’s wrong with people that vote reform. They have a strong media presence to sway the general public, their manifesto is an absolute crock of shit.

🤷‍♀️🤷‍♀️ what do you mean? How is it fair that some people are born in England and some in a war torn country? How is it fair that one person gets cancer 3 times in their life, and another person doesn’t get cancer at all? How is it fair that some people are born intelligent and some not? That’s life. Not everything is fair. Tough shit isn’t it really (and I apply that to myself too). How dare people say oh you’ve got more money than me so I’ll take your money to make us equal. Oh do fuck off.

I’m not talking about proportionate taxes - we all pay taxes to live in civilised society. Help each other and those that are in need. And so we should. But not taxes upon taxes upon taxes meaning that the children of people who have paid taxes their whole life, should then have to pay even more tax on top than exists currently (and that needs to go). Ludicrous.