Chance of a general election next year and Reform winning?

[Confused78]

They are winning in the polls it seems. I've been watching Nigel Farage's Instagram, he really just talks common sense. I find myself agreeing with a lot of what he says.
I'm definitely not far right and I'm not a leftie,
I think I'm somewhere in the middle.
But I am sick of Conservative and Labour and think it's time to give a new party a chance, especially if they are going to properly tackle illegal immigrants coming over and the ones that are already here.
I don't necessarily agree with his call to deport those with Indefinite leave to remain however.

You heard Farage say something about a GE next year? Good example for you then of how he is full of sh’t.

Labout have a strong majority and no reason to give up power, even if they aren’t performing well.

History suggests that Farage is unable to run a political party effectively. He gains momentum through promising the world but can’t get along with people politically. He tends to attract the sort of people as politicians who don’t want to be ‘managed’ or are difficult personalities. Even in the last year he’s lost an MP. When UKIP did well in Wales they had lost all their AMs by the end of the parliament. So it’s going to be a long four years.

The media love the story but I’ve never before seen so much talk of the polls a year after a GE. They are meaningless at this point, other than a barometer of the popularity of the current at this precise time.

Reform in local government, from promises to reality:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly9m75101lo

By the way, we have been members of the ECHR since its inception, long before the Human Rights Act. If we leave we’ll be lined up with the likes of Russia, and all the respect for human rights that implies.

Well, I will agree that they should have reversed Jeremy Hunt's unfunded NI cut. Or is that not what you mean?

Total nonsense wasn't it?! My friend is a materials engineer for Tata and just wondered how on earth he put his speech together and then had the audacity to perform it. And I pointed out that... well, he's Nigel Farage, he's a tool, he's always been a tool and will always be a tool!

Hello neighbour-ish?! I'm in Swansea currently. 👋

@MalinandGo well, they were always going to struggle to identify savings, because councils have spent the last 14 years being stripped to skin and bone. Of course Reform fans (not you) won't want to accept that.

Of course. It’s just an example of Reform promising to sort all the problems out and what happens when reality hits.

Hello. In PT! 👋

I was actually pointing out that life isn't fair - exactly as you say. But we do our best to even things up if we can. That's why kids with SEN get extra help. It's why we have a benefit system and special parking spaces for disabled people or parents with children. Perhaps you needed to read what I was replying to in order to understand my point.

Ok sorry... I obviously need to go to bed ;)

Labour haven’t raised taxes. The Tories did it. I’m blaming them for something they literally did. You can’t blame Labour for Tory tax rises, that’s just daft. As for national debt, have a look at what it was when Brown left No 10 as opposed to what it was when Sunak did.

I’m not sure you quite understand how elections in the uk work? Did you think that when an opposing party gains popularity, suddenly a GE is called? Your posts are quite bizarre

All Labour need to do is amend the voting system whilst still in power.

That would put an end to all this shit. We should work with coalitions. They are designed to stop extremism.

At least they asked last time if we wanted this change.

Oh stop being facetious.
I've posted what I mean but you are ignoring it: growth down, foreccast growth down, consumer confidence down, employment down, inflation up, bonds up, borrowing up, cost of servicing debt up, businesses closing up, taxes up.

I've posted all the evidence of this but again you ignore it, take it you are following Labour spin/gaslighting line of "everything is fine, nothing to see here"?

Are you off your rocker?

Borrowing in the first five months of 2025/26 was £84 billion. This is £16 billion more than during the same period of 2024/25 and £11 billion more than the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast in March 2025.
Public sector net debt (PSND) was equivalent to 96.4% of GDP at the end of August 2025. It was 95.9% of GDP at the end of August 2024.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/282647/government-debt-uk/

You may be right about Reform in the long term, time will tell.
I disagree with you that polling at this stage is meaningless. It influences decisions and policy today, so it does matter.

That’s a good point. Even if people think it doesn’t matter Starmer and Labour are responding to it with policy changes.

That debt rise is quite small over a year. And given the utterly broken system Labour inherited, they needed to invest. 14 years of neglect and underfunding take a bit of mending.

So you think that unfunded NI cut was a good idea, even though it took a bite out of what the government has to spend? I'm not a Labour loyalist, but you certainly come across as a big fan of Tory economics.

But they are making things worse!!!

Look I know you do a great impression of an ostrich but all the data clearly shows Labour are making the economic situation worse. You are a small, and shrinking minority who think Labour are doing well, the majority believe the opposite. Although I already know you will blame that on either "right wing press" or "comms" rather than criticise Labour. So around and around we go in circles.

No I don't think it was, it was 100% a trap for the incoming Labour government. I'm not a cheerleader for all Tory policy BUT Labour did inherit a growing economy (however small that growth was) and have managed to decimate that and make things worse.
I am a staunch critic of Labour because by every conceivable metric they are making things worse. Being a Labour critical doesn't automatically make me a Tory policy cheerleader.

Labour could have reversed the NI cut. Why didn't they?

Do you think that increasing NI on business was a good idea, and do you think it has damaged the economy? Thousands have lost their jobs or had hours reduced.
Are you sure you're not a 'labour loyalist'? You're making a lot of excuses for them.

They didn't reverse the NI cut because it would have been political suicide. British people want Scandi style service on a peanuts budget - this has always been the case.

No, I don't think the NI on business increase was a good idea. I don't think they should have boxed themselves into a corner by saying we won't raise the big taxes. They should have said openly that they were going to raise tax, that it was necessary and right. And then we would still have had the Tories in because that is how people vote here.

I'm not a Labour loyalist, no. I'm an EU national who has lived here for 28 years and I don't have a vote. And I haven't naturalised because my country doesn't allow dual nationality and frankly, I want that burgundy passport as an escape route in case Reform get in. The UK has gone fully nuts.

Meaningless in terms of who will win the next election I mean. I said they function as a barometer of current popularity.

I don't think Labour are doing well. Quite the opposite. But all the alternative options are worse, and anyone who thinks Reform are going to be good for the UK economy is an idiot.

This country needs proportional representation, a spread of parties across the political spectrum, a massive reduction in political polarisation. That's not going to happen and of course PR isn't a guarantee - but at least my own government fell rather than cave to the extremists in its midst.