Chance of a general election next year and Reform winning?

[Confused78]

They are winning in the polls it seems. I've been watching Nigel Farage's Instagram, he really just talks common sense. I find myself agreeing with a lot of what he says.
I'm definitely not far right and I'm not a leftie,
I think I'm somewhere in the middle.
But I am sick of Conservative and Labour and think it's time to give a new party a chance, especially if they are going to properly tackle illegal immigrants coming over and the ones that are already here.
I don't necessarily agree with his call to deport those with Indefinite leave to remain however.

It's a lot harder to get starter out than it is to change leaders of the tory party.

With the large majority Labour have, I can’t imagine any circumstances which would precipitate a GE next year and by the time the GE comes around I suspect that Reform will have eaten itself.

🤣what party ever does this?

I haven't decided which way I'm voting. Off the top of my head other policies : Reform are replacing the human rights act with a British bill of rights. They are not taking away anyone's rights but want to remove the loophole which allows foreign born criminals use the law to remain. They want to leave the ECHR as many people on the left are acknowledging it's not fit for the modern era and is used to prevent deportations for example. They are scrapping net zero.
people earning under 20 000will not pay tax. Scrapping the 2 child benefit limit. The BBC do an analysis of there main policies but may be biased.Reform UK manifesto 2024: 11 key policies analysed - BBC News https://share.google/mtWbpgRdHJaKup3wn

Yeah, Labour wouldn’t do that at the moment because if they were to be re elected I don’t think they’d command the same big majority.

Approx 6% of estates pay inheritance tax. Many people don't have an estate and most are under the threshold.
What would be your reason to want to protect the estates of the wealthiest of people?

There is a long time until the next election most people don't respond well to fear mongering like the Brexit vote Far right like trump ect will not deter people from voting reform. I was a Labour voter for most of my life but have voted both conservative and reform recently and find the hard left more scary to be honest. I'm not impressed with farage at all he's an astute political operator but there's no depth at all. I don't think Kemi or starmer will be leaders at the next election. What I don't like is this relentless desire to remove leaders Andy Burnham has zero answers. labour won under starmers leadership it's our job to vote people out if we don't think they are doing a good job. I fear there is only going to be chaos ahead.

Ahh, the golden happy years, Britain in the eighties.

there was mass unemployment and strikes in the 1980s, interest rates were at 15%

the 1990s saw negative equity on properties with people owning more on their mortgage than their house was actually worth

Yeah the Tory party have had plenty of practice in this area.

7th May 2026 will see big local elections. It is absolutely possible that Reform will do very well in these.

It will then be another 3 years until the next GE. 3 years for Reform to prove themselves capable of governance. It is highly likely that 3 years of Reform running your local council may well show voters that Reform do not have the answers. But then Reform will also blame their lack of action on “hands being tied by Westminster red tape”.

Some of the comments made by Reform in Kent (where they are in control of the county council) are deeply troubling. Especially comments regarding school transport for children with SEND. Wholesale cuts to this service will hit the most vulnerable the hardest.

My predictions are that it is unlikely that Keir and Kemi will lead their parties into the next GE. Farage is worried that the Tories will bring back Boris hence the comments recently blaming Johnson for the “Boriswave” of people who are likely to apply for ILR.

Yes, there is a possibility that Reform will do well in the next GE in 2029 but ask yourself this: Why is Farage desperate to talk up a GE next year? Is it because he knows that the 3 years between the local elections and the GE will show that Reform aren’t able to govern? Farage knows that he has one shot at the GE so for him, the sooner the better.

Edited to add: For the record, I’m not sure who I would vote for in the next GE as I am deeply disappointed with all of them.

It's also worth pointing out that Farage has very heavily aligned himself with MAGA and Trump. That could well be his downfall, as no one knows what other lunacy could come out in the next 3-4 years.

"These sort of things didn't happen in the 90s"

Anyone remember the London nail bombings? Nothing to do with 'imported people' 1999. Done by a white neo-Nazi.
Remembering the victims of the London nail bombings | Metropolitan Police

Posters like OP really do highlight the need for a basic test of political understanding before getting the ballot paper don’t they. 🤦‍♀️

It's also difficult for Reform to say how different they are from the Tories when a lot (most) of them are Tories who've jumped ship. Two in the last week alone.

Why is it unfair if money changing hands has been taxed before? Do you have an issue with people paying tax when they buy a TV if they've already paid tax through their wages? There are a million examples of money moving from person to person or to business etc where you get taxed again.

Inheritance is complete luck. So of course it’s not fair. There are plenty of people who have achieved much more than me in life but whose parents will pass on nothing to them. There are fair limits on it that most people won’t be affected by. The first £325,000 of an estate is tax-free. Plus if you leave your residence there’s additional protections so it can be up to £500k tax free. That’s generous.

Sounds like Project 2025 - he is a big Trump fanboy after all.

Yip, I was being ironic! The eighties were utterly miserable for millions.

Farage is all about promoting fear though - and people are responding to that at the moment. None of the major parties (those with any MPs at all) are far left in the U.K.
Chaos is what Farage likes. He only knows how to disrupt. If there’s chaos it’ll be down to him and those like him.

So why would you vote for them then?

Not really. You can’t exclude people because they don’t align with your political views.

@Confused78 he doesn’t talk common sense in my world - he talks whatever he thinks pulls the right bells and whistles with a lot of voters without bringing up all the things that many voters wouldn’t agree with or without access to what is financially doable . you have to look at the whole picture - the other people involved - mainly a bunch of failed opportunistic Tory’s who just like being the centre of attention and some real weirdos - I wouldn’t trust them to run a bath - and I’m afraid I don’t like the constant ‘look to America’ policy wise - I’m a centreist too and I vote Lib Dem but don’t disagree with Labour too on many things - although I’m not at the Corbyn end of the Labour view. It’s like digital ID topic today - we had it in Denmark , meant that they could easily stop access to stuff if people were not meant to be here or working cash in hand in black market etc - now Reform say they want to stop this kind of thing - minute anything done to try and stop it? Oops no we don’t want that , same with cutting certain benefits- ooh no we don’t like that, it affects people who vote for our bullshit!! Personally I would love for them to get in so people can see they are all mouth and no reality and some of the nonsense will actually hit them , hopefully they will get a hard time, as at moment they get none - sunshine is the best disinfectant they say - we in the meantime will bugger off for a few years - because we can

Yeah so why import more intolerance, no one is saying don't have any immigration just take alot more care about it and don't put women and gay people at risk from men from intolerant and misogynist countries.

Good grief OP. Read your opening post back to yourself. If you think Farage talks sense you've either, 1. Lost it; or 2. Been paid by him. The only reason an incumbent government would call an election was if they were so far ahead in the polls they wanted to guarantee themselves a longer period in government. Government is about so much more than dealing with immigration.

Tell me you don’t understand politics, without tell me you don’t understand politics.