Chance of a general election next year and Reform winning?

[Confused78]

They are winning in the polls it seems. I've been watching Nigel Farage's Instagram, he really just talks common sense. I find myself agreeing with a lot of what he says.
I'm definitely not far right and I'm not a leftie,
I think I'm somewhere in the middle.
But I am sick of Conservative and Labour and think it's time to give a new party a chance, especially if they are going to properly tackle illegal immigrants coming over and the ones that are already here.
I don't necessarily agree with his call to deport those with Indefinite leave to remain however.

Holistically, inheritance tax is fair because it provides a route, theoretically, to distributing wealth more evenly. This evening, I listened to a charity CEO in the country where I live talk about families in which two children share a pair of shoes. Poverty is undoubtedly an issuecbut extreme wealth is a greater issue. Trickle-down economics don't work so policy makers and politicians have to find other ways of making our society more equitable, as the Scandinavian countries have largely done.

@Confused78 the UK is not due a GE until 2029.

Reform UK is a shambolic mess of a privately owned thing, owned by Nigel Farage. Nigel Farage is a workshy grifter who's ballsed up loads of political parties.

Reform UK may not even exist come the next GE.

Couldn't have put this better myself if I tried. Its scary how fickle voters can be.

Like you OP I have felt disillusioned by the 2 main parties for so long. This government with their manifesto coming into power of 'Growth, Growth, Growth', 'accountability', 'smash the gangs' couldn't be further from the truth.
There has to be a better option and I hope Reform get in next election (2028/2029).

It amazes me that people still listen to Farage's twattery. Brexit was supposed to be the Holy Grail that would fix all the problems. He got what he wanted and not only did it not fix any of the problems, it's a complete fucking shitshow. But somehow he's got away with spending years banging on about the EU being the source of all the UK's woes and being proven entirely wrong and now he's banging his drum again and people are still dancing to his tune. Absolutely incredible.

NF and common sense do not belong in a sentence together unless it includes a negative.

In no world is reform ‘in the middle politically’. Nice try from the bots with things like ‘common sense’. A man who parrots Trump is not speaking anyone’s version of sense.

But how is it fair that some children inherit massive houses and loads of money when others don't? Or that some people earn far more than others for doing far less? We need to pay taxes for the benefit of everybody and somebody has to pay them. It seems fairest that those with the most money should pay more.

The policy is to raise personal tax allowance to £20k per year for everyone earning under £100k per annum - not just those earning under £20k

If you’re disillusioned with the two main parties - Labour and tories, why would you vote for the tories who have become reform?

the reform party have 5MPs so do the Green Party, so why not look at them as an alternative?

Maybe if Farage could be cloned and put up for every constituency. And all reform supporters go out to vote. Many I have spoken to have never voted before. But good old Nigel seems to whip them up with his rally cries.

Erm, immigration was how we recovered from the Second World War. We recruited people from the colonies to work in the UK in our NHS, railways and many other areas. If it wasn't for them, our history would have been very different, and not in a good way. Immigration, even now, is linked to growth in all industries in the UK.

I think you are a slave to your social media algorithm as well as MPs who are fascists parading as truth-tellers. I am not going to listen to a party that wants to abolish the NHS, reduce women's rights, and thinks immigrants eat swans. Nor am I going to listen to Richard Tice who won't disagree with Trump who claimed Paracetamol causes autism (Science is never settled, he said. Um, I think this one certainly IS). They are clever people appealing to stupid people. Beware.

OP, what is it about your belief system makes you define yourself as being "somewhere in the middle"? Surely if that were true, you would not be attracted to a far right party like Reform?

Is it just that you perceive "far right" to be a negative thing and that the term therefore can't apply to you? Is it because you think your beliefs are normal because you're surrounded by other people who hold similar far right views? Is it because you actually know so little about politics that you don't think you should be called "far" anything?

Reform is a far right party and Farage is a far right leader. If you choose to support them, that makes you far right. Or just ignorant.

so, tax cuts - where will the money for public services come from? None of this will be properly costed.

Public services are on their knees, we need more public money, not less. Tax cuts for the wealthy is a terrible policy given the state of everything! It's just widening the gap between rich and poor.

I could wang on for hours about inheritance tax - I am very very pro taxation. And I say this as someone who could inherit a large amount in the future and I'd happily pay the tax.

How British do you need to be to get to the front of the queue for social housing in Reform World? Is being born here enough or will they be tracing ancestry back generations? If my great grandad wasn't British do I get a lower score and pushed back in the queue?
Or will the applications simply be looking for the white folk...?

What will happen to all the low paid jobs that immigrants do in Britain, if they can't get housing?

None of these policies sound good. Or indeed, likely to actually happen...

What I know about Reform is that they'll sell the NHS to US insurance firms and our abortion rights will come under threat (there's a major social media push on this right now and we know the far right is very adept on mobilising social media to plant their messaging).

What we all know about Farage is that he lies, breaks promises and advocates for policies that make us all worse off. He is a genius when it comes to stoking division and fear.

There is no reason for Labour to call a general election next year, but they really need to figure out a robust and coherent strategy to counter Reform before 2029 or it's Brexit all over again but worse - and we'll all pay a far higher price.

Why nil? Even if MRP today shows they have the support after just 14 months.

Not sure about next year part for actual GE though op. Depends on Labour mucking it up more.

Not this crap again, presumably you're too young to remember before 1998 (I was 30 then so over halfway through my life) when not only did we have all those things but our quality of life was far far far better and the country worked far better.

@Confused78 I would read around a bit more before you hand Reform your vote
You can like their spouting about illegal immigration but what about everything else?

The EU will find it difficult to co-operate with them. Will financial markets crash if they go too swiftly like Truss?
The also want a small state for all, anyone you care about need ongoing support?
What about free speech? They say they like it but only the bits they agree with.

Equality laws will be out the window, employers will be able to sack pregnant women.

The list is endless.

If you are an older, straight, pale male - who can support you old age with private health and social care then they are probably the party for you. Otherwise it will be a bumpy ride with division, hate, smaller state, no international co-operation or security and jittery financial markets. public worker strikes, less equality and compassion, no progress on green solutions.

And apart from these nor details it would be a Parliament of bickering, scandal, corruption. It will be a mess.

If you are wealthy you can ride it out, if you depend on a wage and stable prices you will be screwed.

So much of your life is not about brown people but you don’t notice it because it’s working well enough, like your body when it works you are not in pain, when it all stops working it starts getting painful.

Oh and I will blame every Reform voter and not give a monkey’s about how terrible their life is. We are forming a financial strategy to ride the storm if this happens I suggest you do the same.

Because there's a hell of a lot more to running a country than immigration (despite how blinkered some of the country are right now). Reform have no chance of being able to cope with the wide scope of things it encompasses. Can you imagine Reform in control of education for example?

Yep, it will be the Reform voters who are hit the hardest by their policies because they will be the least prepared for the shitshow that will unfold.

For fuck sake.

when will people realise that we do not vote for singular policies? Educate yourself on what Farage wants and what it means.

he wants to abolish the equality act. That means you can be sacked because of your religion or your race. It means that business won’t need to legally provide ramps for wheelchairs or braille documents for blind people. It means that women can lose their jobs just because they fall pregnant.

he wants to withdraw from the ECHR. Quite frankly having the right to a fair trial is something I consider to be fundamentally important to our society. That is enshrined in the ECHR.

he wants to abolish the NHS and follow the US system. The NHS might have problems but you know what the leading cause of bankruptcy is in the US? Healthcare bills when insurance hasn’t paid for your treatment. When my daughter was injured and blue lighted to addenbrookes it was a comfort knowing the ambulance would take her and treat her. You could potentially remove that for everyone.

this is someone who is being funded by Russia. Do you really want someone cosying up to Putin?

Farage will undoubtedly cause significant damage and harm. Not just the short term but long term as well.

but hey he has a catchy slogan and wants to get rid of brown people.

All these posters seem to be living in a different world to me - in what world are Labour running education, the economy, anything competently (or the Tories for that matter but things are getting even worse under Labour). And they are the most divisive people going - protected characteristics anyone? They and the Tories are the ones who have birthed the current division and strife in our society - in the 90s before the Equality Act, and mass immigration we all just got along and our society was very cohesive.

And no you couldn't be sacked before 2010 (Equality act) for your religion or race - that is complete and utter bollocks.

Time you stopped listening to the sound bites and started reading the policies 🙄

Labour will hang on grimly to power. However if this latest mad idea of promoting leftie Andy Burnham comes to fruition that will certainly ensure they lose the next election.