Chance of a general election next year and Reform winning?

[Confused78]

They are winning in the polls it seems. I've been watching Nigel Farage's Instagram, he really just talks common sense. I find myself agreeing with a lot of what he says.
I'm definitely not far right and I'm not a leftie,
I think I'm somewhere in the middle.
But I am sick of Conservative and Labour and think it's time to give a new party a chance, especially if they are going to properly tackle illegal immigrants coming over and the ones that are already here.
I don't necessarily agree with his call to deport those with Indefinite leave to remain however.

ffs what are you going to do physically force castration or tie their tubes?

It’s. A. Response. To. The. Manifesto.
This isn’t difficult. Sometimes external things are affected by the government’s actions. So Truss thought her budget was the bees knees. The markets didn’t. Mind you, that wasn’t a manifesto thing was it, because she didn’t fight an election and just did what she fancied.
If Reform have in their manifesto to cancel ILR and do it, they’ve fulfilled their manifesto pledge. It’ll mean utter disaster, but it won’t mean their manifesto was nonsense

Take ownership, that’s all any reasonable person asks.

Ah. The. Dot. Writing.

I’ll leave you with the pledge site. Not many feel as you do. Which is a problem for Labour, they’re losing support.

Just trying to clarify. They’ve stuck to the manifesto. Some effects of it may be less good than hoped/bad. Maybe it’s a long term thing which will resolve. Maybe not. But they have not broken manifesto pledges. That’s just a fact.

‘The world has changed’
’working people’
et al

I rather suspect that adherence is about to change, ooh, on 26th November.

Zero?

It’s possible. But I’m from that realistic group of people who don’t see u turns or plan changes as bad. I like governments (like anyone else) to respond to real world facts.

’working people’ is and was deliberately delphic.

As to the rest, that’s fine but then don’t expect the electorate to rely on a word you say, particularly during electioneering, and when you were constantly called out on it.

It’s a whole year. And can you honestly say things haven’t changed in terms of global relations and finance?

That’s good. Did you say the same for the last gov?

I assume you will for the next.

I think we all stopped talking about manifestos at all with the last government. Each new leader did whatever they fancied. My view on a manifesto, whatever party, is that it indicates what they plan to do in the short term and what they aim to do over the long term. I’m pragmatic, so I realise long term plans can change, but I expect the general direction of travel to be maintained.
As for a possible Reform government, I hope they don’t do any of the things they are suggesting will be in the manifesto because they would be disastrous.

I mean your claim you don’t see u turns as bad. Did you think the same for the last gov?

Labour?

They said they'd grow the economy. Everything they have done is punishing business.

But it isn't that they fulfilled their manifesto promise, and then - oops! - external things somehow got in the way.

It's that they brought in policies which had a very clear and predictable opposite effect to what they had promised.

It's like pledging to end poverty and then immediately cutting benefits.

Various collated polls suggest he would win the most seats - but without a working majority. So, I guess we’d need another election pretty quickly.

We didn’t in 2010 but I can’t imagine any of the other parties being prepared to form a coalition with him. I guess we could end up with a rainbow coalition of everyone except Reform.

The Tories would. I think they’d jump at the chance.

You think? I’m not so sure, I don’t think they’re entirely ready for self immolation yet.

It's irrelevant, the manifesto said the money was going to state schools but Starmer then changed it to go on housing. Isn't that breaking the manifesto ie they specifically costed 1 million things out for state schools from VAT income yet have changed the beneficiary to housing. State schools aren't seeing 1p of any VAT money.

Badenoch has ruled it out. Jenrick said he'd stop the fight with Reform 'one way or another' which some people interpreted as him being open to coalition, but then he ruled it out too.

I think the Conservatives would do better to avoid being tarnished with Reform chaos. But I'd be even more against a coalition with with Labour, who I think are much worse than Reform both economically and ethically.

My preference would be for the Conservatives to refuse coalition with either, so that there would be a Reform minority government.

But can't you see, if you vote for Reform just to get Labour out then you are voting FOR them. Regardless of the reasons you do it, if you vote for Reform, then you are voting FOR Reform.

I felt the same way at the last GE. I desperately wanted the Tories out, but there was no way on this earth that I could have voted for that snivelling little piece of shit or anyone in his party. I just could not sink that low.

I don't care. Labour have been hugely damaging for my family and country. Look at the language being used by Labour supporters, it's divisive and downright nasty/vile. They say Reform are disgusting, well I think many Labour supporters are and yesterday's speech has fuelled division and hatred on all sides.
If I abstain from voting then I risk letting Labour in and I can't stand the thought of that. If I had a viable alternative I would look at it but I don't.

This, to the power of x.

I gave the Coalition an entire term. I was very pleased when they brought in marriage equality.

After the Tories pushed Brexit, I stopped giving them credit for anything. But they got 5 years from me. I'm prepared to give this government the same.