Chance of a general election next year and Reform winning?

[Confused78]

They are winning in the polls it seems. I've been watching Nigel Farage's Instagram, he really just talks common sense. I find myself agreeing with a lot of what he says.
I'm definitely not far right and I'm not a leftie,
I think I'm somewhere in the middle.
But I am sick of Conservative and Labour and think it's time to give a new party a chance, especially if they are going to properly tackle illegal immigrants coming over and the ones that are already here.
I don't necessarily agree with his call to deport those with Indefinite leave to remain however.

There are a number of people on this thread who have stated they will vote Reform to get Labour out. To clarify, I am far from happy with Labour's performance to date but I would never vote for Reform (even as a protest vote) because I fear for people who aren't white in the UK in a post Reform world.
As an example I have several British born Muslim colleagues, including my boss who is a practicing Muslim and wears a hijab.

@GabrielsOboe, @twistyizzy, @strawberrybubblegum.

Do you understand how worried people like my boss are?
Do you understand that the Reform agenda, the weaponisation of flags, and the likes of Tommy Robinson are increasing the amount of random abuse they get?

And most importantly what would you suggest will be their future under the Reform Government that you are intending to vote for?

Grauniad think they are!

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/sep/30/rachel-reeves-lift-two-child-benefit-cap-november-budget

Phillipson says its on the table

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/two-child-benefit-cap-bridget-phillipson-labour-b2836482.html

This source says "Labour set to lift" it

https://leftfootforward.org/2025/10/labour-to-lift-two-child-benefit-cap-in-november-budget/

Even those sources make it clear that various options are being considered (totally normal in government policy development) so presumably they will be considering the cost of various possibilities as part of the decision to proceed (if they do). It doesn’t appear likely to be a simple lifting of the cap.

They’re haven’t considered things well so far. It’s why they’re in this mess. Business confidence even lower this month.

Hopefully they'll improve then? Let's see. Four years to go.

I'd far rather hope our current government can turn things around then think I have no hope until 2029. And that my only option then will be a party like Reform.

I’m not thinking about a GE yet, trying to get through this Labour gov. Their decisions are dire.

This. Anyone expecting that 14 years of poor governance, let alone the damage wrought by Covid, could be turned around in 14 months was hopelessly optimistic. It will take years.

Why are you so obsessed with voting intention polls then?

This thread is literally about the outcome of a future GE. As Blossomtoes says, why post on it if you have no interest in the subject? There are so many other places on MN to say how little you like the current government and how great Reform is.

I think the same about your posts on most stuff.

Of course I can post on what’s happening, no one controls threads. I don’t know if you’re noticed but even if you think the polls don’t matter Labour very much do care.

It’s impacting policy now. Labour reacts to Reform daily. So yes I’m interested in that. Plus I think Labour are panicking.

That you think someone is a target because they are displaying their religious beliefs is really alarming.
You understand that many Muslim people were born in the UK?

Um, OK. I have never said the polls don’t matter. I’ve said the exact opposite. But I’ve also said repeatedly that I don’t think the current polls are meaningful in terms of a GE in 2029.

Again, as we’re not having an election until then, I’m reserving judgement on Labour until the end of their term, and would prefer to be optimistic - for the sake of my own mental health frankly - and hope that things are looking better for us all than they do now. I’m saying that without claiming that they’re currently playing a blinder but willing to give them time to figure it out and for longer term interventions to be played out.

I do sympathise with anyone who is feeling that the last year has left them in a bad place. I hope for your sake too that this improves. I hope for my own sake frankly as I’m not immune either.

I'm not "feeling" that Labour have left my family in a bad position, I know it. Don't minimise it with stating that I'm just "feeling" it.

I don’t think anyone needs to know how they’ll vote in four years to take an interest in what’s happening, or even the question in the thread title which is will Reform win. Anyone can answer that.

As for the rest I limit a lot of Labour stuff, have a laugh on here or irl and just generally keep good MH. But I still have views on Labour of course, they are in power and impact everyone.

So why would they do that if they’re not popular, instead of holding on to their massive majority and trying to turn it round?

No there won’t be a GE next year. It’s worrying how many gullible people swallow the absolute shite that Farage comes out with.

Yes I understand that. They want to live here, enjoy our benefits and freedoms but not integrate properly by dressing like a repressed woman from Afghanastan.

I feel uncomfortable whenever I see women dressed like this. In fact it makes me angry. I feel offended that woman dress like this because men decided our british clothes are 'indecent'. Now what they do in their own country is up to them but yes I don't really want to look at it.

I also feel uncomfortable when I watch documentaries on taliban, afghanastan etc and see the women there getting made to wear them. They are so clearly not valued. However I have no right to dictate what goes on in their country and given they now have a media blackout to go along with stopping women being educated who knows what is going on there.

And yes I am a woman who dresses modestly in british clothes and is white.

You can disagree or be horrified but there is lots of us that feel the same.

I’m sorry, that wasn’t my intention. The exact opposite in fact. I’ll reword - I feel greatly for those who have been impacted by the recent economic changes in a way that has materially damaged their lives.

No, and others will think differently. It’s my personal approach. We have the government we have right now. Talking endlessly into the void (which is what this is ultimately) about how awful things feel, and being shouted down if you try to think about what might be positive, is doing me no good.

OK thanks appreciated.
My worry is that Labour fiscal incompetence is going to make things worse. They show no appetite for reining in spending or addressing the growing black hole. All they talk about is spending. Everything they've done so far has made the economy worse.
That's fiscal incompetence.
They then try to hide what they are doing behind propoganda and slogans.

Would you accept that your pro-Labour stance sometimes skews your judgement and blinds you to their errors and/or omissions?

Obviously not because I don’t have a pro Labour stance. I’ve criticised this government plenty since it came to power and am currently undecided whether I’ll vote for them.

Would you accept that your anti-Labour stance always skews your judgement and blinds you to their wins and achievements?

Well you did say ‘why are you posting’, which I haven’t said in response so not the same shouting down there. Post away. Everyone gets a view.

Utter comprehension fail on your part.

This is obviously nothing to do with 'my friendships' - my point was that all people should be treated equally whether they are white or not and I doubt that will happen under a Reform Government which is why I will never vote for them
Actually I thought that was a major part of British culture (fairness, supporting the underdog etc.) - clearly not in your circle of friends though.

Your friend walking about wearing a hijab is making herself a target for not integrating with our culture
At least you have answered one question. - You clearly think that Muslims have no right to wear a headscarf in peace.

I find this victim blaming you have written utterly loathsome.