Chance of a general election next year and Reform winning?

[Confused78]

They are winning in the polls it seems. I've been watching Nigel Farage's Instagram, he really just talks common sense. I find myself agreeing with a lot of what he says.
I'm definitely not far right and I'm not a leftie,
I think I'm somewhere in the middle.
But I am sick of Conservative and Labour and think it's time to give a new party a chance, especially if they are going to properly tackle illegal immigrants coming over and the ones that are already here.
I don't necessarily agree with his call to deport those with Indefinite leave to remain however.

Labour most certainly didn't get leeway in the run up to the election in 2024. It was an election based on primarily getting the Tories out and tactical votes. Reform were not successful at all.

Eta. The excuse for the poor result Reform gave was that they targeted the Tories.

But Labour are in government…

I doubt you would be so pro it if it’s funded from
welfare - then you would start squealing.

It IS welfare. 🙄

Seemingly being in government doesn't mean you have to account for how to fund policies. It's more important that a party which isn't in power accounts for their spending plans. All a deflection obviously. Like I said though, at least we've moved on from "what about the Tories" so it's progress of sorts.

Accounting not your strong point is it…

Ah shit, sorry.

Fully funded and costed doesn’t count in Labour’s alternative reality, I forgot.

Going by Labour posts on here pre GE it all hinged on the manifesto. Which turns out to be nonsense anyway.

Reform are actually releasing policies earlier and it’s causing Labour to follow with similar. Immigration mostly.

Or yours apparently.

In what way was the manifesto nonsense? They haven’t broken any commitments and have got going on lots of it. I understand if you don’t like or support the manifesto, that’s your prerogative, but you can’t say they aren’t following it.
https://pledgeprogress.co.uk

I would accept that if you said, my comprehension….

Anyway, I am pleased to see that you are putting your professional background to good use.

Some might say that the two child cap abolition is Labour simply attempting to keep some of their core demographic loyal.

Of course, it was just red meat to the left of the party.

Is that the blog written by one person? it seems to be linked a lot.

And what do you think my professional background is? Always the same - it’s never long before insult appears.

Still not actually done. Or promised?

No insult from me - you appear to have an accounting background, that’s all.

If you have some other professional background, please accept my apologies.

It’s a party problem. Starmer and Reeves don’t want to be ousted.

Due at budget.

Ah, makes sense, thanks.

As you point out, Labour is in power, so will have to explain funding for measures they put forward. And I assume that will be set out in the Budget and estimates next month - at which point people are free to react to the details in whatever way they feel. The government will need to deal with whatever fall out comes, both fiscally and in public reason terms, and if that includes becoming even more unpopular then that’s an issue for them to consider.

I’m not sure what else there is to say at this point?

For my part I’ve mentioned Reform as this thread is about Reform. I haven’t dragged what about Reform into a thread about the government. Reform are currently very popular in part on the back of making promises that are totally unfunded and unrealistic so, while not in power and accountable, I think wondering why people who would willingly vote for them are so uninterested in how they could be implemented

Not costed or funded though is it?

Did they fully cost the 40B black hole? I can't remember whether that was accounted for? Actually according to several sources I read last week it could now be as much as £50B and that's before yesterday's announcements.
None of the Labour supporters on here can give me any suggestion of how they will pay for either of these new announcements 🤔

You’d vote for a party the policies of which you know nothing?

OK, then.

Labour seem to be finding this out now.

And not announced or confirmed in any way by the government!

Not costed or funded as they haven’t announced it!