Chance of a general election next year and Reform winning?

[Confused78]

They are winning in the polls it seems. I've been watching Nigel Farage's Instagram, he really just talks common sense. I find myself agreeing with a lot of what he says.
I'm definitely not far right and I'm not a leftie,
I think I'm somewhere in the middle.
But I am sick of Conservative and Labour and think it's time to give a new party a chance, especially if they are going to properly tackle illegal immigrants coming over and the ones that are already here.
I don't necessarily agree with his call to deport those with Indefinite leave to remain however.

Exactly. Algorithms create an echo chamber. My feeds are full of ‘ how embarrassing are the flag shaggers’ and horsey stuff!

It is of course entirely possible that four years from now Labour may have turned things around. It is a long time. You can’t in one breath say it’s ages and Reform’s policies will evolve but in the other talk as if an election in 2029 will be happening in the same conditions as we’re in right now.

We can all just wait and see how this plays out for a few more years.

Hey ho though bring in polls as a strawman

It’s not me who’s obsessed with polls. I recognise that they’re an irrelevance at this point in the electoral cycle.

The reasons Reform UK will not win the next election:
The RW vote will be split 3 ways.
Farage's links to Russia.
Farage's inability to run a party without it splitting.
The shambles Reform are making of local government.

I also predict the current rise of the far right will culminate in an act of violence and multiple deaths that will turn people away from any sniff of racism, intimidation and thuggery.

Why on earth would Labour call an election next year? That would be bizarre.

I would not class myself as a Reform supporter BUT if there was an election next year might vote for them. I’m sick of the drain on people who work to fund people who can’t be bothered to work, antisocial behaviour ignored, drain on mental heath services through poor parenting and the walking worried which leads to neglect of those who really need MH support. You work hard and pay tax and get penalised.

Reform won’t change you paying taxes and it being paid in subsidies to private companies, and ending up as dividends in the wallets of other people. £17bn a year is paid in subsidies to oil companies - oil companies are backing reform. Private railways are recipients of £13bn in subsidies and their shareholders are more than happy about that

Universal credit bill for working age claiments was £141 bn so the equivalent of 21% of that bill is spent on private companies subsidies, and it’ll not be reducing under reform

These reasons are not shared by others. Going by the MRP at over 300 after 14 months of a Labour gov.

Labour in power is clearly doing more for them than these posts.

How are Labour going to fund the abolition of the two child cap, please?

The magic money tree. It is also paying for digital ID. It is indeed a magical mystery tree 🌳

No idea. But you could ask the same of Reform, since this is also their policy.

Reform’s magic money tree is a lot bigger than the other parties. It’s a vast redwood.

But Reform aren't in power, Labour are and zero indication of how either of these things are to be paid for. How do you think Labour will pay for them?

So you’re worrying about funding ID cards and the (so far theoretical) removal of the two child cap but have zero worries about voting in a party offering totally unfunded unrealistic policies - currently actually including removing that cap? (These were all included in their actual manifesto at the last election in various ways too.) Interesting.

Taking 250,000 children out of poverty is a price worth paying for, especially those with the broadest shoulders. It elevates everyone and is economically prudent in the long term.

When the Tories were in power during the last dying years and Labour were in ascendancy at that time, it was often asked how they were going to pay for the election promises within the yet undecided manifesto. Same rules apply to Reform now.

Well, first the removal of the two child cap hasn’t happened yet. Second I am waiting for the budget as I am not involved in the Government’s financial planning.

But I don’t think it makes me a muppet to wonder why you are so concerned about the affordability of these measures but totally blasé about Reform’s proposals, however theoretical they are, which include one of the things you currently think is totally unaffordable. You’re happy to vote them in so I’d assume you would spend a little time wondering how they might be paid for, for fear of swapping bad for worse?

It’s not very magic. Increased tax on gambling has been suggested to fund lifting the two child cap.

No I'm really not.
I want Labour out and my only option is to vote Reform so its irrelevant what their policies are because i wont be voting FOR them, just against Labour. We have been hammered by Labour and honestly our lives won't personally be worse under Reform so no I'm not. They could be sending unicorns into outer space.

Do they? You’ll afford Reform the same leeway as Labour? Something about others taking their policies, and wait for the manifesto. And they can use they left a black hole after they get in.

If you’re so sure that Reform‘s policies won’t hurt your family than I can only hope you’re right. But it simply makes no sense to me to be so relaxed about that as they seem to have a lot of potential to do great damage to our country.

As Labour already are

There was virtually no scrutiny of Reform’s policies in the run up to the last election on the basis that they clearly wouldn’t win. I will be so interested to see how much that changes if Reform are still going come 2029. Will they remain exempt from facts?

Most people are dealing with the impact of Labour rn.