Chance of a general election next year and Reform winning?

[Confused78]

They are winning in the polls it seems. I've been watching Nigel Farage's Instagram, he really just talks common sense. I find myself agreeing with a lot of what he says.
I'm definitely not far right and I'm not a leftie,
I think I'm somewhere in the middle.
But I am sick of Conservative and Labour and think it's time to give a new party a chance, especially if they are going to properly tackle illegal immigrants coming over and the ones that are already here.
I don't necessarily agree with his call to deport those with Indefinite leave to remain however.

Im Not convinced by the anti-semitism stuff, but even if we hand that to you it Isn’t the raison d’être of the party. It is with Reform.

Perhaps because I can’t wrap my tiny brain round voting for a party with so many problems and not even because you believe their bullshit. But I will leave you to your voting intentions.

If they get in and crash the economy worse than Truss, which their policies will, I think VAT on your school fees might seem a very small part of your problems.

And yet people posted the same as you are and their polling keeps going up.

Yes, I came back to clarify. I don’t think Reform merely has bad policies. I think they are categorically unable to run a country safely.

Thankfully as I’ve repeatedly said I don’t think Nige is able to run a party either.

True. I agree tactical voting may be bigger next GE than ever before.

(But if the polls were truly meaningless, then people wouldn't feel the need to get organised to vote tactically against reform, its only because you know they are a bigger threat this time around, that you would consider voting con)

Yes, but that’s a different thing?

There’s never been a shortage of people who wanted to vote for Farage. He’s got a great platform. Most voters don’t care about internal Reform wrangles at all. But they are what are most likely to tank Reform, not a loss of public support.

They are not currently destroying our economy.

One might say merely through lack of opportunity.

I don’t think Labour are either.
But, again, hand that to you. Reform aren’t because they aren’t in power. Analysis of their policies says they would be utter economic disaster.

Farage works like this. He gets enough public support for his solutions that his opponents do them. They go wrong, things get worse, he holds his hands up, says ‘they’re making a right mess’ and offers another unworkable solution that sounds like the answer to everyone’s problems.

He didn’t get support for the two child benefit one, the other policies yes.

It still made Labour jump on it, unfortunately.

Crash the economy like Labour have you mean?
Unemployment up
Bonds up and huge spikes that equal those of Truss
Inflation up
Debt up
Cost of servicing the debt up
Business rate of closures up
Cost to businesses up
The black hole increased to a super massive black hole

Tell me how much more damage you think we can take?

You are being hyperbolic, isn't that what your side say all the time?

Oh amd I think DH losing his job as a result of Reeves' policy is pretty catastrophic for our family!

It was spoken of as an ambition even before the election. This isn’t Farage.

Analysis shows it’ll be much, much worse. It’s all unfunded.
So if you don’t think we can take any more it’s really not a good plan to vote for more.

No hyperbole.
Reform would be much, much worse.

Hysteria then. They haven't even got a concrete manifesto ie 1 to be elected on and we are 4 years away from am election.
Your side is mocking speculation about the budget in 2 months as hysteria yet you are doing the same about something that's happening in 4 years time! And may not even happen, although at the moment that's looking unlikely.

Nope. Not hysteria. Based on what they have said they would do.
Which policies do you think won’t be disastrous? Or do you think they’ll completely U turn on what they’ve said?
Edit: what is it you think will never happen?

I think they will change some of what they've said so far as the election draws closer. They will double down on some things and change others, as all parties do. 4 years from an election very few parties have set in concrete manifesto pledges. They see how things play out and test how ideas sit.
I take anything any party says 4 years out from an election with a dollop of salt. To do anything other than that is a waste of energy.

You ain’t seen nothing yet if you get the Reform government you want.

Whataboutery seeing as we are 4 years away from the election.
Stop being hyperbolic/hysterical, take your pick of adjective.

That PP said Labour hadn't crashed the economy. What do you think?

If the economy had been crashed we’d be dealing with the IMF right now. I’m old enough to remember a crashed economy and currently we’re nowhere near it. You seem to want it both ways - hanging breathlessly on voting intention polls yet unconcerned about your chosen party’s policy void because an election is nearly four years away.

A few weeks age we were being mentioned in the same breath as France. Labour have made a stuttering economy worse. By the measures they accused Truss of crashing the economy ie gilts/bonds, they have crashed it. Not IMF definition but Labour's own definition.

Labour repeatedly promised to grow the economy.....Where are the improving living standards?

Hey ho though bring in polls as a strawman

The mood of some parts of the population does not warrant a GE!
Labour will remain in power. I do not know anyone who is at ‘fever pitch’ or who would vote Reform.I do appreciate that some people do like Reform. There will always be parts of the population who dislike the current government. This does not matter, they get their chance at the GE not before.
Please consider where you get your news from as you may be in an echo chamber.