Chance of a general election next year and Reform winning?

[Confused78]

They are winning in the polls it seems. I've been watching Nigel Farage's Instagram, he really just talks common sense. I find myself agreeing with a lot of what he says.
I'm definitely not far right and I'm not a leftie,
I think I'm somewhere in the middle.
But I am sick of Conservative and Labour and think it's time to give a new party a chance, especially if they are going to properly tackle illegal immigrants coming over and the ones that are already here.
I don't necessarily agree with his call to deport those with Indefinite leave to remain however.

45 months is a very long time in politics.
Not much is certain in this political climate.

There’s other policies obviously. Maybe people will want Labour out and vote to do that.

I don’t hate him. I’m not a tribal Labour voter and I’m feeling the financial squeeze quite badly and I think he’s not the right man for the job (I thought that before the election but was hoping for the best.) But I see no malicious intent in him or his colleagues.

Then again, I’ve never been able to afford school fees, even making the sacrifices I’ve read about on here!

Reform are shit.
Labour are shitter.

Voting tactically means voting for the marginally less shit party who aren't determined to destroy you and your family instead of the really, really shit party who are.

HTH.

No, as most of this thread covers. But to make a party truly ungovernable is very very difficult and Labour are nowhere near it. (Reform on the other hand is already teetering on the edge.) As I said, Macron works in a different political system.

Not a racist, no. I wouldn’t have done that.

Reform are not going to relinquish a 30 to 34% poll status. They just have to watch Labour mess up.

But you voted for Labour - maybe even Corbyn? - who are anti-semites.

I couldn't do that.

Winning a GE on a ‘get them out’ vote is not good for a party, as we’re seeing now and was widely predicted. Tactical voting doesn’t operate on national polling levels, that’s why it’s polled separately and not until much closer to an election.

That's what tactical voting means: you vote for a party which is slightly less shit for you than the one you are voting against.

There is NO other option in my area. It's Labour or Reform. How many fucking times do I have to say this for the hard of understanding!

Reform probably won't be shit for me personally, they certainly won't be as devastating as Labour have been + likeky will be. So on paper it does make sense, HTH your lack of understanding.

This looks like it’s been AI generated. Anyone who knows anything about how our system of governance works wouldn’t write something as ridiculous as this.
Good grief.

But you support an anti-semitic party? Are you saying that what they have repeatedly done to Diane Abbott isn't because of her gender + race?

I expect you’d have said that when the Tories had 41% in the polls. Now look - all but extinct.

Is Abbott Jewish?

I'm not sure anyone else could fuck it up as badly as Labour are. Even the man down the pub.

No. They just have to not mess up. They have to get along, for four long years, building a proper party with functioning local government, and agree a manifesto that is costed and deliverable (well, they probably won’t do that but that’ll be tomorrow’s problem for them).

Four months in they’ve lost two of their original MPs. They’ve got a former MP whining at them from the sidelines that a chunk of online ultras think is better than Farage but who has zero public following. They’ve got councillors running away and admitting they can’t deliver on their promises. If they try to slash services the public will be very unhappy. They’ve got murky funding that is on a knife edge from being illegal.

2 separate points. Would have thought you were intelligent enough to figure that out, seemingly not.

They have always had an issue with women. Hell they didn't even know what one was until a judge told them. A black woman was doubly confusing.

There’s no way Starmer would do that when they are doing so badly in the polls. It would be like turkeys voting for Christmas. I don’t like Labour by the way. But no there won’t be an election next year.

Labour has had massive problems with women. Absolutely true. Reform does too. Again, looking to Reform to improve on that (and Labour for the most part has come quite a long way) is actually funny. Reform is coming for legal abortion.

Maybe he doesn't hate you quite so much then. But unless you're funded by the state - and completely loyal to The Party because of it - I wouldn't rely on it.

Again, I'm not looking to Reform for anything other than turfing Labour out. Why are you so hung up on this? You are determined that I'm saying things I'm not. It's weird.

It’s fine. People got excited over the Lowe stuff on here and thought they were done. Now they’re polling higher again and MRP has them at over 300 seats.

Farage was described as the enemy. So unless that’s you Nige, no, he didn’t say you were the enemy.

What about them is ‘less shit’?
What is more positive?

Lowe was never going to end them. He’s just a symptom of Farage’s inability to lead.