Chance of a general election next year and Reform winning?

[Confused78]

They are winning in the polls it seems. I've been watching Nigel Farage's Instagram, he really just talks common sense. I find myself agreeing with a lot of what he says.
I'm definitely not far right and I'm not a leftie,
I think I'm somewhere in the middle.
But I am sick of Conservative and Labour and think it's time to give a new party a chance, especially if they are going to properly tackle illegal immigrants coming over and the ones that are already here.
I don't necessarily agree with his call to deport those with Indefinite leave to remain however.

I think instead, it will be the 80% of voters who currently don't want a Labour government - almost certainly more by 2029 - who will vote tactically for whoever will get them out.

I am not the kind of girl who is in to 3-1 gangbangs….

We’ll see. 45 months is a long time.

Worth though keeping your eye on net favourability polls as much as anything else. It gives you a sense of who people would be likely to vote against in a tactical vote. Nigel is right up there with Labour right now in disliked.

41% of the population actively dislike Reform and 51% actively dislike Labour according to Ipsos.

What’s staggering is Labour’s rapid fall, in the space of just 15 months.

Not really. The last election result was described as a “loveless landslide” at the time.

True tactical voting could be this.

No, that's your opinion. It's not "what's needed".

FYI over 75% currently don't want a Labour government

And maybe an interesting thought for Reform - the public is not patient for improvement and it doesn’t like mistakes. Expectations on Labour were unrealistic, even without the issues they’ve had, and Reform is building castles in the air with the safety of being nowhere near power, which Labour didn’t do. They were criticised by coming across as too moderate in their promises of change and even those are getting picked apart.

Should Reform still exist in 2029 and win power they will have a massive challenge on their hands. And are extremely likely to still be highly unpopular with a big chunk of the country. They are promising that they will solve all the problems, and they won’t.

The UK is probably screwed from now on without some sort of PR.

And 70% don’t want a Reform government. A lot of us would vote tactically to ensure we don’t get one.

Except if more people vote tactically to keep Labour out. .....

Yep 80% might feel strongly about that.

There are more than two parties. We saw last year how successful tactical voting is, it will be very interesting to see a) voting intention at the point where the polls are actually relevant, ie 2029 and b) if Reform still exists by then - Farage has a very short attention span.

You are entitled not to answer, but that which is stated without evidence may be dismissed without evidence.

Just read about the 2 child cap being lifted.
How the fuck can we afford that? Reeves has already increased the black hole to £40B.....where the fuck is the money coming from for this and the digital ID?

Of course we do and they still don't guarantee a Labour win

It certainly is.

I think there's still a possibility that Starmer may do a Macron-style snap election at some point, to prove that the country still loves him. He and his sycophantic acolytes have enough hubris for it.

It would be political suicide, of course, so he'll only do it if the party becomes completely ungovernable.

That seemed to be getting close in the last couple of weeks, but then at conference Kier spewed out rivers of the rabble-rousing warrior-of-the-light rhetoric Labour minions lap up, so he seems to have seen off the threats for now.

The budget will be designed purely to appeal to the party - rather than improve the country - so that will also shore up his support for a while.

But the elections in May are when the angry chickens will come to roost. So it could be then.

Um, lifting the cap is a Reform policy. So you’re voting for it apparently.

The party is nowhere near ungovernable and there is no question at all of an early election. Macron is operating in an entirely different political system.

The local elections next year will almost certainly be a bloodbath but no Labour backbencher is going to demand that THIS is the time for a GE.

Who knows. It’s relentless. I can’t see a party prioritising getting spending down getting in with the numbers as they are. It’s more likely to go to Reform than Conservatives.

You think that's a "gotcha"....it really isn't. I'm not voting FOR Reform, I'm voting against Labour. I'm not some sycophantic fangirl for any particular or specific party, unlike some on here.

I would say it's a shit policy whomever lifted it because we simply can't continue to live outside of our means.

From us, obviously.

The enemy.

That's Kier's rhetoric, not mine.

He really does hate us as much as we hate him.

And laughably "the enemy" incudes many on here who currently support him

I don’t think it’s a gotcha. I do think it’s a great example of how voting for a party just to get another out on a single issue is going to see a lot of people very unhappy with any potential Reform government.

But you're planning to vote for a party with exactly that shit policy? Make it make sense.