Chance of a general election next year and Reform winning?

[Confused78]

They are winning in the polls it seems. I've been watching Nigel Farage's Instagram, he really just talks common sense. I find myself agreeing with a lot of what he says.
I'm definitely not far right and I'm not a leftie,
I think I'm somewhere in the middle.
But I am sick of Conservative and Labour and think it's time to give a new party a chance, especially if they are going to properly tackle illegal immigrants coming over and the ones that are already here.
I don't necessarily agree with his call to deport those with Indefinite leave to remain however.

no shit Sherlock?

They are the cure for this government’s vindictiveness etc because they are not Labour.

Anyone but.

Its really quite simple.

but Replacing them doesn’t cure vindictiveness if the new lot are more vindictive. What you are saying is you don’t care about vindictiveness after all is it? So why did you raise it?
It’s fine to want a change of government of course. It’s fine to want Reform to be that government (though in my opinion that’s short sighted and will lead t9 utter disaster). But try to explain why you want them in a way that makes some logical sense.
‘Anyone but’ is silly. What’s the point in replacing a government you don’t like with one who is worse at the very things you claim to dislike? Even if it’s a tactical vote, the point of a tactical vote is to vote for someone who isn’t your ideal but isstill better than what you want to get out

What do you mean? Do you think they definitely won’t get in?

Inevitably, I answer posts like yours, so -

All votes are equal, and yet many vote emotionally, premised on simply wanting the incumbents out -
hence the Labour victory last year, and hence Reform’s rapid polling ascent since.

One can over-intellectualise these things but people are clearly already extremely disenfranchised with this government, understandably.

Lots of people voted Labour last year on an 'anything but' basis. So it very much isn't the cure for unhappiness.

So @twistyizzy and @GabrielsOboe.

Time to stop the sparring on both sides so can I ask you both a genuine question please?

Clearly both of you intensely dislike the current Labour Government which in a free country is of course absolutely fine.
You have both said you will vote Reform to get Labour out.

My question is what is it about Reform that you think would make them fit for Government? Genuinely curious - if people were looking to move to the Lib Dems or even a reinvigorated Tory party as an alternative I'd understand it but Reform does seem so ill prepared to govern with a series of largely uncosted ideas from completely inexperienced people that I'm baffled.

So could you please explain what you think a Reform Government would deliver in their first term?

Thats a question of perspective.

Plus, Farage doesn't actually WANT to be prime minister. That'd put a right ol' spanner in the works of him constantly flying off to the States and crawling up Trump's arse at every opportunity.

It's interesting to see exactly what the new Reform-controlled local authorities have achieved so far in England.... absolutely fucking zilch by the looks of it. They've, quite literally, done NOTHING.

God almighty. It’s up to the party which wins the election to call a new one within 5 years. Once a government is in, they have control for 5 years.

So to be clear, if you vote in Reform and they keep up their “healthcare free at the point of delivery” schtick during the campaign, they can take apart the entire NHS and replace it with private insurance and that will be that. You can take to the streets all you like. It’s not like the US where a government can be hobbled by unfavourable midterms. The checks and balances are mostly done on honour.

It's nothing like that.😆

Goals count. Polls don't. By the time of the next GE, 2025 polls won't matter. Its just the election that counts. Reform won't be allocated extra votes because once upon a time they did well in the polls.

I am a 1 issue voter but as all the other parties have pledged to solve that then it doesn't make a difference.

I've said this countless times before: I can only vote Reform or Labour (ex Red Wall NE constituency covered in flags). There are no other options if I want to get Labour out and the constituency brought home 2 x Reform councillors in the bi-election. Unanimously, there was a huge gap between them and any other contenders.

There isn't even an Lib Dem candidate here and Tories are out until after 2029.

Labour is to me what Thatcher probably is to you. You would have presumably voted for anyone to get her out?

If that was true Labour wouldn’t be twisting in pretzels with policies to get voters back.

And it is rare for politicians to recover from dire polling.

Well, I think this thread is about how many people are currently saying they’re unhappy with their ‘anything but’ choice isn’t it? So it clearly hasn’t worked for many.

And they’ve also admitted how very difficult it’s going to be to deliver the enormous savings they promised, now they are exposed to the reality of local government finance.

Every single local authority has been endlessly combing their books for ‘efficiency savings’ for a decade or more. It’s been relentless. I don’t know if Reform were genuinely so ignorant of that that they thought they’d find those unicorn quick wins easily, or didn’t understand how local government spend actually works.

Their DOGE inspiration has demonstrated not only that the savings they claimed to be able to deliver were impossible but that their ability to slash and burn (which luckily right now Reform does NOT have) has left bits of government inoperative or unsafe.

People's intentions matter. Labour need people to change their minds in their favour, the status quo works for reform.

So you think replacing one brand of “vindictiveness” - I’d like some examples - with another is a cure. It’s a somewhat niche view.

No, what’s needed is for the 70% of voters who currently don’t want a Reform government - it could be a lot more by 2029 - to vote tactically for whichever candidate in their constituency stands the best chance of defeating them. In my case that would probably be Tory so, if necessary, I’d hold my nose and do it.

I think 'anything but' votes can go both ways. And that isn't represented in current polls!

But in any case, as has been repeatedly said, there is a very long time between now and the next election.

Well, Labour’s vindictiveness is proven.

They would immediately ‘deliver’ the end of the current Labour excuse-for-a-government.

That works.

You're not providing examples.
Counting down to what you're going to bring up...

Top comment on the BBC website re the Labour conference.

Comment by pand at 16:18
pand
16:18

He is useless
The party is useless
They lie
They blame others
They are finished at next election

Reply
1704 likes

I asked for examples.