Chance of a general election next year and Reform winning?

[Confused78]

They are winning in the polls it seems. I've been watching Nigel Farage's Instagram, he really just talks common sense. I find myself agreeing with a lot of what he says.
I'm definitely not far right and I'm not a leftie,
I think I'm somewhere in the middle.
But I am sick of Conservative and Labour and think it's time to give a new party a chance, especially if they are going to properly tackle illegal immigrants coming over and the ones that are already here.
I don't necessarily agree with his call to deport those with Indefinite leave to remain however.

It’s also changing policy so even if mners are no problems here Labour don’t think that. They swing from wanting Reform voters back with policy to insulting them. Either way they’re responding to that loss of support.

I wasn't talking about your mother. I was talking about a hypothetical person in the SE, who isn't rich - the usual justification for stealing someone's money. By comparing the UK IHT tax rules versus NL, you cn see that UK rules are the opposite of generous.

Tbf, IHT has basically become a tax on living in the SE. Along with stamp duty. Our children have money stolen by the government hand-over-fist if they want to continue living in the place they grew up, and where their family lives.

You may not mind paying IHT.

I hugely object to the government stealing my hard-earned money after my death, when I want my DD to be the one to benefit from money I saved up from working.

The actual result though is that I'll make choices around when/how I gift which will leave me less well protected financially in old age than I'd like. And I'll remain really pissed off at the government for using uncertainty (around my longevity/health) against me.

There are two separate issues you’re confusing. Are the polls causing the other parties to look at their policies? Yes. Are the polls a reliable indicator of who will win a general election in 2029? No.

It’s far from unlikely that Reform will not even exist in 2029.

I’m not confusing anything. I’m clear on Labour caring about those polls more than some mners.

I haven’t posted it’s what the numbers will be on the day of the GE but they are also not ignored for a reason.

As for not existing, who’d throw in that lead. They’re probably feeling more buoyant than Labour.

Maybe it's other posters who aren't clear on the distinction then. But I don't think many posters are dismissing the support for Reform right now - I think a lot of people are quite concerned about it/excited about it (pick your opinion!) - but this particular thread has been discussing whether the polls of today mean Reform is cruising to victory.

So far as not existing, I refer back to Farage's consistent inability to run a party. However much public support he has. The tactic of pulling across disgruntled Tories is high risk for him as the majority of them resent him and will NOT want to do what he says. He attracts people who don't like discipline and don't respect the rules which makes operating a party hard from the start.

The experience of UKIP in Wales is worth reading about, for another occasion where a Farage party appeared to be the next big thing with power within its grasp, but it couldn't sustain that. Farage and Lowe have already fallen out a year in, and Lowe is now leading some sort of splinter Reform via social media.

The evolution of UKIP in Wales: How the Senedd's Brexiteer politicians turned on each other and the institution that employs them to survive | Wales Online

Absolutely.

Starmer and Reeves have already started softening up the electorate for a nasty budget at the end of November - I rather suspect that the fallout, from what is likely to be a catastrophe, will see the former throw the latter under t’bus.

This government are a toxic combination of incompetent, deceitful and vindictive.

The rise of Reform is simply the medicine to cure the disease. Dope-on-a-rope Starmer is belatedly waking up to the threat - but any attempt to implement policy remotely right wing, risks tearing the party asunder.

I disagree with pretty much all of that, but one thing I’d like to pick up - if your worry is a toxic combination of incompetent, deceitful and vindictive how on earth is Reform a cure? Pretty much perfect description of every Reform MP (and, as far as I can see, council member).

Also a perfect description of some of the current cabinet

Two more suspended today. Quality people they have in place. How many is that since last May?

I disagree, but even if I allow that and say, yes, absolutely. How is more (and even more) of the same the cure?

Exactly it's a matter of opinion

Politicians in glass houses.....

No, I’m nit talking about the current lot. Your opinion on them is fine, everyone is entitled to one. But if you think they are a toxic combination of incompetent, deceitful and vindictive how would Reform be the cure? There is direct evidence they have the same traits in spades.

Have a missed a load of suspensions of councillors from other parties?

Well there are these historical ones from Labour.

Plus 11 this year:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce8yexjrm05o.amp

Like I said, glass houses

@twistyizzy again, any chance of a percentage of how many elected/candidate Reform people have been found to have behaved in a way that we wouldn't like to see in our elected politicians compared to those from other parties? Over a similar period of time? That would create a more meaningful picture.

No idea, sure you can find that out though.

I'm not saying Reform are better, I'm saying those in glass houses shouldn't throw stones. Especially as Labour and their supporters constantly position them as being morally superior when they blatantly aren't. I mean, how is the anti-semitism going within Labour?

Cyril Smith that famous member of the Liberal Party from 1968 onwards. 🤣
You really are having to dig deep to go back 57 years for some on that list...

Could try harder - 2/10

Why are Reform doing so well in the polling, then?

What’s your view?

No, I think if you want to keep bringing it up as something that proves in some way that Reform has less of a problem than other parties (or at least not far more of a problem) with bad behaviour, you need to offer that information yourself. Otherwise people will continue to think it's not really relevant. I'm certainly not going to spend any of my time doing something I know for absolutely certain will simply reinforce my existing opinion that Reform has a serious problem with the candidates it attracts, and the only reason many of them have now stood as councillors is the serious erosion in public standards across the political board.

I have no idea who to vote for Nigel Farage wants to sell the nhs and i don't trust him to do what he's saying .He has no balls

I dont trust labour anymore what a mess

There are no good choices only bad ones ,its all going to heck

I am only bringing it up because PPs portray Reform as being more morally corrupt and ignore the moral corruption within Labour. Holding 1 party up as being morally superior when it demonstrably isn't is being completely disingenuous.

The 11 Labour councillors suspended in February?

They ARE as a group far more problematic though. That's just a fact. A government of Reform politicians is far more likely to contain people with seriously compromised reputations (what you consider to be problematic will obviously vary) or little ability.

I've known a LOT of politicians and come across stinkers from all political parties. Mostly not criminal, just arses. There's a danger in thinking any party has MPs who are perfect because they are not. Just surviving the British political system means elected politicians are more likely to have a big ego, be connected with people who can make things happen etc. Local politics has some absolute doozies. Saying that, the press can be very inconsistent in what they decide to get upset about and some people get away with a lot worse than others in the court of public opinion. Farage is Teflon.

But the percentage of Reform politicians manifestly unfit for public office is really worrying. They are so very, very much NOT a corrective to the current lack of trusts in politicians. It makes me weep to think anyone sees them as the answer.