Chance of a general election next year and Reform winning?

[Confused78]

They are winning in the polls it seems. I've been watching Nigel Farage's Instagram, he really just talks common sense. I find myself agreeing with a lot of what he says.
I'm definitely not far right and I'm not a leftie,
I think I'm somewhere in the middle.
But I am sick of Conservative and Labour and think it's time to give a new party a chance, especially if they are going to properly tackle illegal immigrants coming over and the ones that are already here.
I don't necessarily agree with his call to deport those with Indefinite leave to remain however.

Then you have completely misinterpreted what I said. As you have just quoted, I said slowed.
Perhaps we have crossed wires, idk. I'll leave it there. Enjoy your evening.

Which country is that? The UK has significantly harsher IHT (especially to direct descendents) than any EU countries. Note - other countries occasionally start IHT at lower levels of inheritance, but doesn’t hammer people at 'owns a house in the SE' level like the UK does. Ie UK IHT is much more redistributive than any EU country - excessively so.

Look at the table down this page:
https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/04/16/inheritance-tax-across-europe-how-do-the-rules-rates-and-revenues-vary

The recipient hasn't earned the money, but the deceased person has. They have the moral right to choose who gets their money. The government is despicable: stealing from the dead.

I'm from the Netherlands. The system is complicated, but essentially over 10k, everyone pays IHT. If you're a direct descendant it starts at 10%, but it goes up depending on the size of the estate. The more there is, the more you pay. If the line of descent isn't direct, it starts and ends higher and there's no nil band. My mother inherited a small amount from an uncle and paid 40% on all of it.

My mother's estate was well below the UK limit for IHT and my Dsis and I paid the 10% rate on most of it, 20% on the last bit.

In the UK only 6% of estates are subject to IHT. That should tell you something.

The people I want to pay inheritance tax never do. The Duke of Westminster inherited most of London in his 20s and paid not a penny.
This country is still so feudal. It blows my mind that a huge amount of the land in this country is owned by a few dukes who own it because one of their ancestors was nice to William the Conqueror.

A very ordinary house in the SE costs at least £800k. If a single parent leaves a house + £400k remaining estate to her children, then in the UK £280k tax would be due whereas in the NL it would be £228k. Ie 60k less.

I'm assuming she died at 82 - average life expectancy - half-way through a 30-year drawdown pension which was planned to give her a moderate pension of £31k including her state pension for 30 years. That would need a starting pension pot of approximately £550k at 67, of which approximately £370k would be left at 82 plus say £30k personal possessions. This is not a rich person, just someone who lived in the SE and tried to prudently prepare for her old age so that she wouldn't have to rely on the state.

I think the money left over from her work and prudence should go where she wanted it to - ie to her children. Not have £280k stolen by the government: years of her working life.

Do you believe everything Farage says? Have you bothered to research his views on the NHS for example? Do you believe his girlfriend miraculously obtained £800k to buy a house outright where he lives? Do you agree with him taking away the right to remain from people who have lived here for decades? Do you know who bankrolls Reform?
Instead of watching tiktok and Instagram, do a bit of research before casting your vote.

Zero chance of Reform winning

Have you not looked at the polls?
I think they will.

The polls now are meaningless. Look at what the polls were saying at this point in the last parliament.

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/34131-voting-intention-con-41-lab-36-9-10-feb

That's like saying being 3-0 up at half time in a football match is meaningless. Yes things can change, you could concede 4 goals and lose, but it's more likely that doesn't happen.

He can't be bothered to do the job of an MP. He doesn't do surgeries because 'security', hardly ever turns up to vote in the Commons.
How does anyone imagine he'd ever knuckle down to the enormous job of running the country?
It's a terrifying prospect.

Yep. And if they didn’t matter to Labour they wouldn’t be trying hard to match policy to all those people they’re losing.

So why are Labour running scared of them? If they don't matter why are Labour letting them dictate policy?

Your assumptions about my mother's financial arrangements are very wide of the mark and in any case the Dutch system is completely different.

But I don't care, because I don't mind paying tax on money I have not worked for. It's extra. It's gravy. It's not an entitlement.

Is the government running scared of the polls? In what way are they dictating policy?

But it’s happened in the last five years. 🤷‍♀️

Oh give your head a shake

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0xzpngj5xo

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/sep/26/labour-reform-uk-nigel-farage-immigration-voters

https://inkstickmedia.com/whats-behind-the-uk-labour-partys-plummeting-support/

https://socialistworker.co.uk/anti-racism/diane-abbott-calls-out-labour-for-pandering-to-reform-uks-racism/

Government discusses how to beat the opposition. What a shocker. 🙄

So Diane Abbott saying Starmer is pandering to Reform? The island of strangers speech?

On R4 last night speaking to delegates from conference all who cite Starmer and Labour's dire polling?

But yeh sure youre right, they are so self absorbed they probably don't even notice the polls.

And that means it will definitely happen again???

The general trend is for the party in power to gradually lose popularity over time, as the cumulative effect of difficult decisions and negative headlines builds. Labour have to reverse that trend and climb a mountain. It can happen, it might happen, but to say their polling position now is irrelevant seems wildly complacent.

Maybe not on here but I think they do. Well every so often they panic do stuff, and then insult people they probably want back as voters.

You can see why they tick downwards every week. And Starmer is now the least popular PM since the 70s.

Very small percentage pay it though. If the deceased couple were married, and leave to their kids or grandkids, it is only payable on anything over a million pounds

It really isn’t. It’s more comparable to saying that one team is more likely to win before the start of the match based on some stats, but with no certainty of how it will go, who will get injured, what calls will be made. And assuming the team with the odds behind them will make no errors at all.

There’s an incredibly famous saying ‘a week is a long time in politics’. Four years is even longer.

Realistic not complacent. Labour had a mountain to climb at this point in the last parliament, remember what happened last year?

There’s a reason the polls are usually not news for most of a parliament.

We’re hearing ALL about it right now as it makes a good story but the reality of it remains that polls are always a snapshot in time and can change quickly (within days). We are way too far out from an election for these polls to be any prediction of an election result.