Chance of a general election next year and Reform winning?

[Confused78]

They are winning in the polls it seems. I've been watching Nigel Farage's Instagram, he really just talks common sense. I find myself agreeing with a lot of what he says.
I'm definitely not far right and I'm not a leftie,
I think I'm somewhere in the middle.
But I am sick of Conservative and Labour and think it's time to give a new party a chance, especially if they are going to properly tackle illegal immigrants coming over and the ones that are already here.
I don't necessarily agree with his call to deport those with Indefinite leave to remain however.

You can take a horse to water..

Immediately dealt with. Not true.

I recognise Matthew Lynn. That article is just an Op Ed from a regular writer for the Telegraph & Spectator.
I could throw a stick and hit dozens of similar Op Ed’s about Johnson etc.

Maybe, maybe not. That’s why I said we needed to know why the rate if increase of appointments had slowed. It could be something alabour could and should have dealt with. It could be something that would have affected any government.
It’s nit t(e point though. You started by arguing that the numbers if appointments hadn’t increased. It has.

@Notonthestairs @cardibach

And do you also recognise Patrick Dunleavy?

In case you don’t:

Patrick Dunleavy is Emeritus Professor of Political Science and Public Policy at the London School of Economics, and a Fellow of the British Academy and the Academy of Social Science.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/after-recurring-sleaze-scandals-can-labour-regain-the-publics-lost-trust/

They were. Which ones are you thinking of which weren’t dealt with as soon as they were revealed? We haven’t had the Johnson’s pattern of dent, deflect, say it was a lie, say it wasn’t bad, say it didn’t matter and then finally sack someone.

Well in fairness Dunleavy doesn’t feature on my FIL’s birthday book list!

In that case he’s a total loser.

I’ll agree that reforms suggested by Dunleavy are interesting and shouldn’t be dismissed.
Dunleavy atleast references Johnson& Lebedev.

“No such tinkering will ever get noticed by voters nor improve rampant malversation problems in the UK government. Still less can it protect us from the Trump-scale corruption likely under a possible future Reform government headed by Farage – an apparently “money-addicted” personalready making £1 million a year while an MP, unchecked by any Parliamentary or government regulation”

No wrong. I did not write that appointments hadn't increased. See my post at 13.43. I said the rate of increase had slowed. Scroll back.

If you do understand that the rate of increase has slowed since Labour came to power, why boast about it? Its a strange thing to do.

*Dunleavy I was referring to (not your fil)

I'm confused. First you reference Dunleavy to prove your point about how corrupt Labour are, but now you don't like him any more because he's pointed out how much more corrupt Reform are and would be in government?

This is what you wrote; There are more NHS appointments already^
This is not true. It has slowed under Labour.^
Now you can say you meant the rate has slowed, but you said it wasn’t true to say there were more appointments. That and some of your other comments strongly suggested you weren’t talking about the rate. It’s not clear you meant the rate, nit t*e number, when you used the pronoun ‘it’.
As. Said, there could be lots of reasons for t(e rate slowing. And I wasn’t ‘boasting’ anyway, I was countering a suggestion that Labour had broken a campaign promise about more appointments. You and I might say their target was unambitious, but they are meeting their target. They haven’t broken the manifesto commitment.

Arrogance is not something to be proud of. It doesn't make you better than anyone throwing insults.

Dunleavy is of course just someone with an opinion, like we all are! Whether you agree with him or not, he’s not ‘right’ just because he’s a professor: there will be other professors who think he’s wrong.

Pretty sure @TheNuthatch meant the insult throwers were arrogant.
Also pretty sure you and she are on the same side and you misread the first post of hers you responded to.

I realised that 😁He's a big fan of Farage. You'd probably have opinions in common or at least similarities of thought.

(And I am very very fond of him just in case that is up for questioning - we bicker amicably over such things and have lots of other things in common)

‘He's a big fan of Farage. You'd probably have opinions in common or at least similarities of thought.’

Really? In what way?

It was a joke.

Then I read it back and I didn’t want @Notonthestairs to think I was calling her fil a loser.

No, I think @TheNuthatch was arrogant to believe they were on the 'right' side. My point was that there is no right or wrong, we just all have differing beliefs but no one person can be 'right'.

I've not read anything here that makes me think I'm on the same side.

Well I am not going to pretend to know your politics in any detail but IHT is a huge bug bear - actually he'd like to rewrite most tax law, codes and policy (having read quite a bit of Dan Neidle's posts I can see a bit of where he is coming from) more controversially he would have opted for a cliff edge Brexit, liked what he saw of Truss and wants to align with the US under Trump as far as possible.
We always have plenty to discuss!

Good

The political stuff feels like a throwback to pre GE when Labour were riding high so I’m glossing over most of it but @TheNuthatchis nowhere near arrogant and also doesn’t rely on insults, which is rare on these threads.

its a different system, nothing to do with practice

Fair, that makes sense.