Labour isn't working - Thread 9

[TheNuthatch]

A chat thread for those who don't like this Labour government.

The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.

Previous thread
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5407977-labour-isnt-working-thread-8?utm_campaign=thread&utm_medium=share

I can't find much either, but from what I can see, both tories and Labour are at their lowest ever since records began.
Labour’s previous lowest was 18% in 2009 (full fact).

With DH redundancy + VAT we've had to cut back severely and last night cancelled all our monthly charity donations.
We used to donate 10% of monthly income to charity but now that's 0%.
That's what happens when you hammer certain groups of people for tax!

:(
Can you move to a state for sixth form?

sorry to hear thaf @twistyizzy - and worse to come.

I can see why Stsrmer and Reeves going may be getting mileage as they’ve still got so long to go - if they limp on another year, might be impossible to turn around. Burnham might think he’s got a chance of a turnaround at this stage…

Do we think Burnham would go for chancellor?

Yes indeed.

We have done so as well, last year. Plus we paid a small amount into our school bursary scheme. That stopped last year. Plus- (plus, plus) we used to have a cafe breakfast maybe every 3 weeks at our local diner. Can't do that anymore and stopped in March-ish. That cafe announced this week they are closing. After 40 years. Now I am not arrogant enough to think it was my full english x 3 every few weeks that made the difference.... it's everyone's full English every couple of weeks.

Yes we will be. Better chance of her university of choice if apply from 6th form. Of course she will then be taking the place of an intelligent child from a more deprived background but that's a Labour problem. If it wasn't for VAT she would be staying until end Yr 13.
Oh it also means we can use those 2 years fees to cover university so she won't have any debt.

Excellent! 👌 (not the taking the place of another child bit, but the rest of it! As you say - Labour’s consequences).

Best wishes @twistyizzy. Our DC moved to state sixth form this academic year and as you say, that's a place lost to some other child (very oversubscribed and competitive entry).

Now I am not arrogant enough to think it was my full english x 3 every few weeks that made the difference.... it's everyone's full English every couple of weeks.

Agree @JustStopItNorasaurus, I expect a similar story to what happened to our local fish & chip restaurant. People could spin it as "it was a poorly performing business anyway so good riddance" which was the common refrain on the school VAT threads. But however you spin it, a business closed is a business closed. With all the jobs and downstream effects along with it. And generally with nothing to make up the loss because everybody is hunkering down feeling worried and pessimistic (even the better-off).

Good. I’m glad you’re getting something positive from Labour’s shitshow on education. They used a bad policy to hit students. Awful people.

I think as much as Reeves is struggling the markets will go for it if anyone looks remotely like getting even more spend happy.

Wow the good news just keeps coming today. Pound falls, gilts rise (again)

"today’s public finance data puts the sustainability of borrowing and the size of UK state into question"

Incidentally this shows the size of welfare state and the proportion of out of work benefits. It just isn't sustainable.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2025/sep/19/uk-government-borrowing-rises-consumer-confidence-slips-reeves-budget-business-live-news

I think so too. We need to demonstrate fiscal responsibility to ensure we can get a reasonable debt interest - and any hint that the cheque book will be opened just further exacerbates the problem.

I find it staggering that we spent £18bn more than expected in August, is that right? This time last year the government was telling us we were on the brink with a £22bn black hole - a figure inflated by numberwang - and we are meant to shrug off an £18bn overspend in one month? FFS.

I'm sorry to hear how your family has been thrown about by the government @twistyizzy. What a mess.

Yes that's the spend compared to last August. It's so important to have this data visibly to counteract Labour gaslighting and propoganda when they blame the Tories + black holes.

I followed your link and it also highlights the rise in the number of people going bankrupt. A 7% increase on July, a 16% increase on a year ago.

Yep which means they then have to claim benefits.
It's just batshit

It’s such a shame - we really needed a centre-right govt like sunak-hunt to come up with sensible reforms and growth measures.

you're right @EasternStandard a rare example of a chancellor that can’t fail due to the market impact.

The Tories have got about 6-12 months left to get their shit together and sadly i just can't see it happening.

Yes, if they think they have a better shot than Badenoch then they better get to it quick to build their profile and narrative.

I thought the consensus was that James Cleverly will be the most likely next Tory Leader? He’s recently moved back into the Shadow Cabinet so his profile is moving back up after the Leadership vote cock up!

I think Cleverly and Jenrick seem to be likely choices. I think there are benefits to both. Jenrick might be a good choice to mop up reform voters if there is a Reform scandal or if they just self detonate, whereas Cleverly has broader appeal and might mop up the Anyone But Reformers.

Either way, despite Badenoch's recent burst of political fire, it's probably too little too late if Labour is undone over the next year or so and they need a narrative with more cut through.

The Tories have no hope for the next election. Survival is their highest ambition as things stand.

But if they can survive, the field will be open for the next but one election.

Labour won’t win in 2029 and I doubt that Reform would join with the Tories in coalition so we’d be looking - probably - at a minority Reform government.

I have very little doubt that Reform will crash and burn in government. On any sensible view it’s just a protest party. It has no other offer.

So we’ll be back to a right-left Tory-Labour contest - if both parties can stagger on. Otherwise, who knows…

The one thing the Tories should not do is ditch Badenoch before the next GE.

I don't know, I think that reform is showing that they could well produce a majority government. If there were a Tory opposition then I think they could claw their way back to power thereafter.

Idk about changing Cons leader, I just think Reform is gathering pace and anyone in that position would be finding it hard.

I think KB is right on spending but it’s such a hard message as the electorate think they can get more, well not everyone but we feel at a tipping point where so many rely on the state so want more.

So I’m a idk about most of it 😬. I just look at Labour’s red line shrink and think goodo.

https://share.google/pwowS2klBzdPaB0z6

This is the MRP poll by the electoral calculus done in June, when Reform were polling lower and Labour was polling higher, with 377 seats for reform. So an outright majority isn't a pigs might fly possibility.

Yes, Reform could get a majority. But whether they’re a minority government or manage a majority, I’m quite sure it will be a political disaster for them.

How the other parties shape up in the face of Reform being trashed in, say, 2034 will depend to a large extent on the 2029 results.