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Ukraine Invasion: Part 58

1000 replies

MagicFox · 10/08/2025 12:16

We’re all still here for Thread 58. Thanks to all regular contributors, especially those doing the daily hard work. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

D. Please keep on topic

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ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 03/10/2025 14:38

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Ukraine’s upgraded “Long Neptune” missile triples (www.kyivpost.com/post/61340) its previous range and carries a heavier warhead, improving its ability to strike both ground and naval targets.

‘Immediate boost’ – Trump clears $51M in arms sales for Ukraine (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/61352) and allies.
The “dual-track” approach – arming Kyiv while weighing intelligence for deep strikes inside Russia – marks a significant pivot in US policy, sources tell Kyiv Post.

Impossible to Survive: Kyiv Post visits the frontline in Dnipropetrovsk region and sees how evacuations are taking place amidst the sound of the Russian fire.
https://www.kyivpost.com/videos/61403

Ukrainian drones struck the Azot chemical plant in Perm Krai, (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/61386) Russia’s only producer of key explosive materials. The facility briefly halted operations but they’ve since resumed.

Ukraine’s postal and logistics group, Meest, started building a $30 million logistics hub in Western Ukraine. (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/61316) It aims to boost e-commerce, streamline operations, and challenge rivals Nova Poshta and Ukrposhta.

European lawmakers demand justice for Ukraine’s captive journalists, (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/61345) honoring their courage while urging sanctions on Russia and aid for the country’s media.

Around 13,000 pigs were killed after Russian shelling hit an agricultural enterprise in the Kharkiv region.
A massive fire broke out, engulfing eight livestock buildings covering more than 13,600 square meters.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
Sensitive content
Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 03/10/2025 14:44

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇪🇺 EU leaders have failed to reach an agreement on a €140 billion loan for Ukraine using frozen Russian assets, the Financial Times reports.
The European Commission proposed granting Ukraine a loan backed by frozen Russian assets held at Euroclear, the Belgian financial institution. Under the plan, if Russia refuses to pay reparations to Ukraine, it would permanently lose rights to those assets.
Belgium remains opposed to the idea, while France and Luxembourg have expressed concerns over potential legal consequences. Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever insists that the EU must “mutually share” the risk of holding the frozen assets in Euroclear and provide greater legal protection in case Moscow files lawsuits against the country.
This has stalled the process, making it highly unlikely that the European Commission will present a formal legal proposal to EU leaders at their next meeting in Brussels in three weeks, given the scale of technical work still required.

Last year, Russia earned about $750–760 million from uranium sales to the United States, Putin said at the Valdai forum.
He added that in the first half of this year alone, Russia sold over $800 million worth of uranium to the U.S. Putin expects the figure to exceed $1 billion by the end of the year.

🇷🇺🇵🇱🇩🇪🇱🇹 Russia was preparing terrorist attacks in Poland, Lithuania, and Germany using drones and canned goods, Gazeta Wyborcza reports, citing Polish law enforcement sources.
According to investigators, the operation involved 27-year-old Ukrainian national Vladyslav Derkovets, who had previously been mentioned in media reports.
In Lithuania, Derkovets dug up a cache of canned food at an old cemetery in Kaunas. Lithuanian counterintelligence later found identical containers packed with explosives. Experts determined that the contents of a single can equaled 1.4 kg of TNT — enough to destroy a passenger car and severely injure its occupants.
On another trip, he transported drone components and a SIM card to Düsseldorf, Germany. This operation took place during Euro 2024, when matches were being played in Düsseldorf.
Earlier, media reported on another assignment: Derkovets collected parcels in Vilnius. Three of them caught fire during transport — in a truck near Warsaw, at Leipzig airport, and at a warehouse in Birmingham, UK. A fourth parcel was seized by police, and testing confirmed the presence of detonators and flammable substances.

Deep strike at 1,400 km. Long-range drones of the Security Service of Ukraine attacked one of Russia’s leading oil refineries — Orsknefteorgsintez.
The refinery operates four primary oil refining units, with an annual capacity of 6.6 million tons of crude oil. It produces about 30 different products, including gasoline, diesel fuel, lubricants, aviation kerosene, bitumen, and fuel oil.
Video footage shows columns of black smoke rising over the refinery after the drone strikes. An evacuation was announced at the plant. t.me/liveukraine_media/34815

🇫🇷 France has detained two crew members of a Russian shadow fleet tanker suspected of launching drones into Danish airspace.
The vessel, now operating under the name Boracay but formerly known as Pushpa, was intercepted off France’s western coast in late September.
According to the Brest prosecutor, authorities launched an investigation on October 1 due to the tanker’s “lack of confirmed national registration” and its refusal to comply with French authorities’ orders. Two crew members — identifying themselves as the ship’s captain and first officer — were taken into custody.
President Emmanuel Macron said France is investigating the vessel for “serious offenses,” though he did not confirm reports linking it to drone flights over Denmark.
▪️ On September 30, the French Navy announced that officials were probing possible violations by the Boracay, which is suspected of belonging to Russia’s shadow fleet.

❗️Russia has prepared a response to the West’s potential “reparations loan” to Ukraine — it plans to nationalize foreign assets.
On September 30, Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin signed a decree allowing for the accelerated sale of state property.
The document is aimed at speeding up the sale of various companies — both Russian and foreign. According to a Bloomberg source, if the EU begins seizing Russian assets, Moscow may retaliate with symmetrical measures.
Putin signed the decree against the backdrop of the EU leaders’ meeting in Denmark, where they are pushing a plan to provide Ukraine with a €140 billion loan using frozen Russian reserves.

🛩 A Russian An-2 aircraft crashed in the Krasnoyarsk region, killing one person.
According to Russian media, there were two people on board the plane.
The Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations reported that the crash occurred about 40 kilometers from the village of Tanizebey.

blueshoes · 04/10/2025 03:57

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-3-2025/

Key Takeaways

  1. Russian forces conducted a large, combined missile and drone strike against Ukraine on the night of October 2 to 3, increasingly leveraging missiles in large but infrequent strike packages.
  2. Russian forces likely stockpiled ballistic and cruise missiles throughout September 2025 to conduct a few large scale drone and missile strikes on select days.
  3. Russian forces are likely leveraging recent upgrades to Russian ballistic missiles to improve their ability to penetrate Ukrainian air defense systems.
  4. Russia continues to escalate its destabilization efforts against Europe as European officials continue to report unidentified drones operating in their airspace.
  5. The Kremlin continues efforts to undermine Western-brokered peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina, likely as part of a larger campaign to divide and distract Europe.
  6. Norway and Ukraine’s European partners opened the largest training center for Ukrainian military personnel in Poland on October 1.
  7. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and Velykomykhailivka, and Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast.
blueshoes · 04/10/2025 12:38

The Times article - Why the Russia-Ukraine war could swing in Kyiv’s favour

https://archive.ph/C4uGC

The war between Russia and Ukraine could be about to change dramatically in Kyiv’s favour.

The decision, reported in The Wall Street Journal, comes after the vice-president, JD Vance, confirmed that Trump was considering giving President Zelensky land-based Tomahawk cruise missiles [image]. As the missiles have a range of about 1,500 miles, Kyiv would possess one of America’s most successful combat weapon systems, capable of reaching Moscow from any point within Ukraine.

Both the consideration of providing Tomahawks and the reported agreement to hand Kyiv intelligence of Russia’s strategic energy sites have raised the stakes beyond anything contemplated by Trump’s predecessor.

President Biden was always wary of giving Zelensky the tools for striking deep inside Russia itself, concerned that it would provoke a dangerous escalation with Moscow.
...
However, there were no limits placed on the use of US intelligence to help Ukraine pinpoint Russian troop positions, arms depots and tank movements inside Ukraine.

Now, Trump appears to have decided that the gloves should come off in terms of supplying Ukraine with intelligence, specifically aimed at striking Russia’s huge network of energy installations, such as refineries, oil pipelines and power stations.

Putin is dependent on the sale of oil and natural gas to still-willing customers such as China, India and Turkey, to fund the war with Ukraine.

Trump dramatically reversed his view on Ukraine’s ability to defeat Russia when, after talking to Zelensky at the United Nations general assembly in New York last month, he declared that Kyiv could after all seize back all the territory lost to the Russian troops. He said Putin was in deep economic trouble.

Trump’s decision to extend the gift of intelligence to Kyiv to cover Russia’s energy infrastructure will be a huge blow to Moscow and could persuade Putin to seek a negotiated settlement to save his war economy from ruin.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
MissConductUS · 04/10/2025 13:36

I doubt that Ukraine is going to get large numbers of Tomahawks from the US. They're being prioritized for the Indo-Pacific forces. But they might get some, along with missiles from other DIB firms like the one from Anduril I linked to earlier. Most of the targets Ukraine wants to hit don't require the 1500 mile range of the Tomahawk.

There are already 840 ERAM (extended range attack munition) missiles on the way, with more authorized after those.

https://aviationweek.com/defense/missile-defense-weapons/us-innovation-hurries-new-cruise-missile-ukraine

The range of these depends on the launch mode - ground launched about 240km, fired from an aircraft at high altitude about 500km. The puts plenty of high value Russian targets within range. More here:

https://armyrecognition.com/military-products/army/missiles/tactical-missiles/eram-extended-range-attack-munition-missile

Edited to add that the game changing element here is the targeting intelligence that they US is now willing to provide. Ukraine already has some good deep strike munitions that are getting the job done, but the US missiles will be faster, smarter and harder to intercept. The Ukrainian may prioritize suppressing Russia's remaining air defense assets with them, to make it easier for their own long range drones to get through. That's what I'd do. 😀

U.S. Innovation Hurries New Cruise Missile To Ukraine | Aviation Week Network

After its rapid-fire development, the low-cost Extended-Range Attack Munition cruise missile program is poised for trial by fire.

https://aviationweek.com/defense/missile-defense-weapons/us-innovation-hurries-new-cruise-missile-ukraine

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 04/10/2025 14:16

The latest reports that I saw were that the US is going to keep its Tomahawks as there are limited supplies.

blueshoes · 04/10/2025 14:18

@MissConductUS thanks for the additional detail on long range strikes into Russia. The Times could use you on their team!

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 04/10/2025 14:25

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Russia targets (kyivindependent.com/russia-targets-ukraines-energy-infrastructure-in-massive-strikes-ahead-of-winter-zelensky-says/) Ukraine's energy infrastructure in massive strikes ahead of winter, Zelensky says.
"Just today, Russia struck our gas infrastructure with 35 missiles, including ballistic weapons. It was a combined strike, and only half of the missiles were shot down," Zelensky said after a meeting with Ukraine's top military command.

⚡️Ukraine accuses (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-accuses-russian-intelligence-of-ordering-assassination-of-ex-parliament-speaker-andrii-parubii/) Russian intelligence of ordering assassination of ex-Parliament Speaker Andriy Parubiy.
According to investigators, the suspect monitored Andriy Parubiy's daily routine and movements while preparing an escape plan abroad. Law enforcement officers detained him before he could leave Ukraine. [they had held off from a formal accusation until now]

⚡️ Ukraine confirms drone strike (kyivindependent.com/drones-hit-major-oil-refinery-in-russias-leningrad-region/) on one of Russia's biggest, most modern oil refineries near St. Petersburg.
Drones struck the Kirishi oil refinery in Russia's Leningrad oblast overnight on Oct. 4.

⚡️ Breaking: Russian strike on railway station in Shostka, Sumy Oblast injures at least 30 (kyivindependent.com/russian-strike-on-raolway-unjures-at-leat-30-zelensky-says/), Zelensky says.
Passengers and Ukrzaliznytsia workers were on the site at the moment of the attack, according to Zelensky.

⚡️ Ukraine hits Russian cruise missile ship (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-struck-russias-missile-ship-grad-in-karelia-military-says/) on Lake Onega, military says.
The Russian missile ship was struck on Lake Onega in the Republic of Karelia at 04:31 a.m. local time on Oct. 4, according to the Special Operations Forces.

⚡️Munich airport again halts operations due to drones (kyivindependent.com/munich-airport-again-halts-operations-due-to-drones-police-investigating-sightings-at-prague-airport/); Police investigating approaching drones at Prague airport.
Authorities at Munich International Airport ordered a suspension in flight operations shortly after 9:30 p.m. local time after multiple drones were spotted in the vicinity of the airport for the second time in less than 24 hours.

⚡️French photojournalist killed, (kyivindependent.com/french-photojournalist-killed-ukrainian-photographer-injured-in-russian-drone-strike/) Ukrainian photographer injured in Russian drone strike.
Both men were wearing protective gear marked "Press," Ukraine's 4th Separate Mechanized Brigade said, condemning the strike as a violation of international humanitarian law.

Inside Ukraine's fight to stop Russia near Kupiansk as war evolves

  • ()* The city of Kupiansk has become a focal point of Russia’s renewed offensive in Kharkiv Oblast. After crossing the Oskil River, Russian forces have begun infiltrating Ukrainian lines in small assault groups, while the battlefield becomes increasingly dominated by swarming drones. The Kyiv Independent’s Francis Farrell and Nick Allard spent a day with the 15th National Guard Brigade, known as Kara-Dag, to document how artillery crews and drone operators are adapting their tactics to counter Russia’s advance and defend Kupiansk under constant aerial threat.

⚡️'We don't want to share their fate' — Orban says (kyivindependent.com/we-dont-want-to-share-their-fate-orban-says-ukraine-membership-would-drag-eu-into-war-with-russia/) Ukraine membership would drag EU into war with Russia.
"Ukraine is a country with a very difficult fate. Why should we share in this difficult fate? We have our own fate, which is much easier than that of the Ukrainians," Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said in an interview.

Art after apocalypse — opera spurred by Russia’s ecocide in Ukraine to return to Kyiv (kyivindependent.com/art-after-apocalypse-opera-spurred-by-russias-ecocide-in-ukraine-to-return-to-kyiv/)
“Gaia-24,” the opera inspired by Russia’s 2023 destruction of the Kakhovka Reservoir dam in Kherson Oblast, is set to make its return to the Kyiv stage in late November at the Lesia Ukrainka National Academic Drama Theater.

⚡️ Oleksa Shalayskyi (kyivindependent.com/oleksa-shalayskyi-renowned-ukrainian-investigative-journalist-dies-at-58/), renowned Ukrainian investigative journalist, dies aged 58.
Over the decades, Shalayskyi became one of Ukraine’s leading investigative journalists and is described by his colleagues as a pioneer of anti-corruption investigations.

⚡️ Ukraine brings back 22 children (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-brings-back-22-children-from-russian-occupied-territories/) from Russian-occupied territories.

⚡️ Russian attacks kill 1, injure 33 in Ukraine over past day, target gas infrastructure (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-kill-5-injure-51-in-ukraine-over-the-past-day-russia-continues-to-target-energy-infrastructure/).

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
· 4h
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA — OCT 4, 2025
■ Engagements near average, casualties below average
■ 6th-highest drone losses; land-based systems remain below average
■ Confirmed 🇷🇺 officer deaths reach 7,000 (5.3 per day since the start)
■ Overnight attacks: below average but still in the triple digits; interception rate could be better
■ Double-digit 🇺🇦 strikes, 🇷🇺 strikes below average

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦 (@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social)

⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA — OCT 4, 2025 (1/2) ■ Engagements near average, casualties below average ■ 6th-highest drone losses; land-based systems remain below average ■ Confirmed 🇷🇺 officer deaths reach 7,000 (5.3 per day since the start) ... 📈 l...

https://bsky.app/profile/ragnarbjartur.bsky.social/post/3m2eagdqk622x

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 04/10/2025 14:28

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

🇨🇿 The second day of parliamentary elections is underway in the Czech Republic — the results may determine the country’s future stance on support for Ukraine.
The populist ANO party of billionaire and former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, known for his Eurosceptic and anti-Ukrainian statements, is currently leading.
If he succeeds in forming a government, the Czech Republic could shift from being one of Kyiv’s strongest allies to adopting a position closer to that of Hungary and Slovakia.
According to forecasts, ANO may win up to 75 seats — short of the 101 needed for a majority — which could push Babiš toward forming a coalition with the far-right SPD, a party that opposes support for Ukraine and calls for a review of residence permits for Ukrainians.

🇩🇰 Denmark has reported repeated provocations by the Russian fleet in its waters — Reuters
The Danish Defense Intelligence Service has reported a series of dangerous incidents in the Danish Straits, where Russian warships:
▫️took a collision course with Danish vessels;
▫️aimed weapons at Danish Air Force ships and helicopters;
▫️disrupted navigation systems, including GPS.
According to intelligence director Thomas Arenkiel, the Russian ships used equipment to create obstacles and likely caused significant disruptions in navigation.
Danish intelligence views these actions as elements of a hybrid war against Denmark and the West, but emphasizes that there is currently no direct military threat.

👀 Drones circled over a Bundeswehr base before the attack on Munich Airport, BILD reports.
According to the publication, unidentified drones first appeared over Erding Air Base near Munich, which houses the Bundeswehr Innovation Center, and then moved toward the airport, located 8 km away.

Russia’s oil revenue plummeted by 20% in September, — Bloomberg.
According to the Russian Ministry of Finance, oil revenues to the budget fell by almost a fifth compared to last year, amounting to 483.5 billion rubles. Total oil and gas revenues decreased by 25% to 582.5 billion.
The main reasons are the fall in global oil prices (the average price of Urals crude was $57.55 per barrel, 18% lower than a year earlier) and the strengthening ruble, which reduces exporters’ ruble income per dollar earned.
This puts significant pressure on the Russian budget, which is already facing minimal hydrocarbon revenues since 2020, while war expenses continue to grow.

💪🇺🇦 Ukrainian Delta system became the main control tool at NATO REPMUS 2025 exercises — Denys Shmyhal.
With its help, more than 100 unmanned platforms were coordinated: sea, underwater, land and air.
Shmyhal noted that Delta confirmed compatibility with the latest Alliance standards and that Ukrainian technologies not only meet NATO standards but also shape new approaches to warfare.
“This is proof of our ability to quickly adapt to any combat operations at sea, on land or in the air,” the Minister of Defense added.
Ukraine has joined NATO’s REPMUS 2025 exercises for the second time in a row — the largest international event to practice the use of drones in maritime operations.

In Bulgaria, parliament has stripped pro-Russian President Rumen Radev of the authority to appoint the heads of the security services, BNR reported.
The National Assembly approved amendments to the law on the State Agency for National Security in both readings, stipulating that the head of the agency will now be elected by parliament on the government’s proposal, without the need for a presidential decree.
Parliament also passed, in the first reading, amendments granting it the power to appoint the heads of the State Agency for Technical Operations and the State Intelligence Agency. A second reading is expected next week.
In addition, the ruling coalition plans to amend the law on the National Security Service to strip the president of the right to use the service’s vehicles.
Radev denounced the amendments as “anti-democratic” and called on “the Bulgarian people to react.”

A year early: EU plans to ban Russian oil imports starting next year — Bloomberg.
The European Parliament’s relevant committee will vote on October 16 on amendments to the RePowerEU program.
Initially, the program envisaged phasing out Russian oil and gas by the end of 2027.
The updated plan also includes measures against the Russian “shadow fleet” and duties on imports of Russian oil via the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia.

‼️At least eight people were injured in the attack on a passenger train in Shostka, including three children, the Prosecutor General’s Office reported.
The wounded have been hospitalized, and the massive attack on the city continues.
Ukrzaliznytsia said that a commuter train ticket clerk was among the injured and is currently receiving medical treatment.

Notes on destroyed cruise and ballistic missiles have been placed on the command post of the Patriot air defense system of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 04/10/2025 14:33

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

‘Political will’ barrier threatens Zaporizhzhia nuclear safety, (www.kyivpost.com/post/61429) says IAEA chief.

A Finnish court has ruled it has no jurisdiction in the case of the Russian oil tanker Eagle S, (www.kyivpost.com/post/61406) part of Moscow’s so-called “shadow fleet,” which was seized and accused of cutting undersea cables in the Baltic Sea on orders from the Kremlin.

🎙️ A new episode of OFF THE RECORD is now live.
🇯🇵 Japanese Ambassador Masashi Nakagome joins 🇨🇦 Canadian Ambassador Natalka Cmoc in wartime Kyiv for a candid, wide-ranging conversation about Japan’s crucial role in supporting Ukraine.
They discuss humanitarian demining and Japan’s upcoming international conference in Tokyo, contributions to Ukraine’s reconstruction, agriculture, IT and infrastructure sectors, women’s leadership, and the cultural ties between Japan and Ukraine — from ballet to sumo to food traditions.
Ambassador Nakagome also shares his personal impressions of Ukraine, his favorite Ukrainian dish, and how cultural fusion strengthens ties between the two nations.
Watch now:

Ukrainian Special Operations Forces struck deep inside Russia: attack drones hit a P-14F “Lena” long-range radar and a “Sopka-2” tracking radar system in the Voronezh region.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 04/10/2025 14:36

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

❗️Supplies of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine are unlikely — the Trump administration is considering other options, Reuters reports.
Agency sources say existing stocks of the missiles are already committed to the U.S. Navy and other needs. One source added that the U.S. could consider allowing European allies to purchase other long-range weapons and then supply them to Ukraine.

🇪🇪 This winter, Russia is likely to intensify its strikes on Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructure in an attempt to inflict maximum damage on the civilian population, said Estonian intelligence chief Colonel Ants Kivisild.
He noted that Russia now has more resources for such attacks than before.

Zelensky announced that Russia is now importing gasoline — a direct result of the work of the Security Service, the Armed Forces, intelligence, and Ukrainian weapons manufacturers.
“Russia is importing gasoline from different regions: from Asia, including China and other countries, and from Europe, in particular from Belarus. This is one of the outcomes of Putin’s war — the so-called ‘gas station country’ no longer sells but instead imports gasoline,” the president said.

🇱🇹 Lithuania’s Minister of Culture resigns after failing to answer who Crimea belongs to.
At the insistence of Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė, Culture Minister Ignotas Adomavičius announced his resignation but claimed he was stepping down not because of personal mistakes, but due to external pressure that, he said, posed a threat to his family’s safety.
During an interview with the portal lrytas.lt, the minister was unable to immediately answer the question of who Crimea belongs to, accusing the journalist of provocation.

Ukraine has brought back another 22 children and teenagers from Russian-occupied territories.
As part of the Bring Kids Back UA initiative, a 10-year-old boy was reunited with his family after being forced to study under the Russian curriculum and threatened with being sent to Crimea for “examination” under a fabricated psychiatric diagnosis.
Also rescued were a 16-year-old teenager and his younger brother, whose family was persecuted for refusing to accept Russian passports or work in an occupation-run school.
Among those returned is a 14-year-old girl who was humiliated in a Russian school because of her Ukrainian origin.

notimagain · 04/10/2025 15:02

A Finnish court has ruled it has no jurisdiction in the case of the Russian oil tanker Eagle S, (www.kyivpost.com/post/61406) part of Moscow’s so-called “shadow fleet,” which was seized and accused of cutting undersea cables in the Baltic Sea on orders from the Kremlin.

Meanwhile the captain of the tanker the French boarded a few days back has been charged with (to paraphrase) being a a non cooperative toe rag....

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/03/captain-of-oil-tanker-linked-to-russia-shadow-fleet-to-face-trial-in-france

Captain of oil tanker linked to Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ to go on trial in France

Vladimir Putin denounces seizing of the vessel as an act of ‘piracy’ and warns it could provoke confrontation

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/03/captain-of-oil-tanker-linked-to-russia-shadow-fleet-to-face-trial-in-france

MissConductUS · 04/10/2025 15:30

blueshoes · 04/10/2025 14:18

@MissConductUS thanks for the additional detail on long range strikes into Russia. The Times could use you on their team!

You're welcome, and thanks for the suggestion. I've recently retired, so a side gig as a military analyst sounds like a fine idea.

Meanwhile the captain of the tanker the French boarded a few days back has been charged with (to paraphrase) being a a non cooperative toe rag....

I'll admit, I had to google "toe rag". Everyday is a school day on Mumsnet. 😁

notimagain · 04/10/2025 15:34

@MissConductUS

"I'll admit, I had to google "toe rag". Everyday is a school day on Mumsnet. 😁"

Ah yes sorry...the old divided by a common language problem...😄

Natsku · 04/10/2025 15:36

Reading up, it seems its because the damage occurred before the ship entered Finnish waters. Urgh that is shit but I guess its legally correct.

I'm in Tampere today and came across a protest

Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 05/10/2025 10:06

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Ukraine accuses China of providing Russia with satellite data (kyivindependent.com/china-foreign-intelligence-service-says/) for missile strike targeting.
China officially claims neutrality in Russia's war against Ukraine, but has indirectly supported Moscow in several ways.

⚡️Czechia's right-wing, anti-Ukraine (kyivindependent.com/czechias-right-wing-anti-ukraine-party-wins-parliamentary-elections/) party wins parliamentary elections.
The populist Ano party is opposed to Ukraine's membership in the European Union and does not support aid to Ukraine. Led by former Prime Minister Andrej Babis, Ano won the most votes (around 35%) in the Oct. 3-4 elections.

⚡️UPDATE: Czechia's Babis says Ukraine 'not ready' (kyivindependent.com/czechias-right-wing-anti-ukraine-party-wins-parliamentary-elections/) to join EU.
Ano party leader and billionaire Andrej Babis said on Oct. 4 that Ukraine is "not ready" to join the EU and that the Czech ammunition initiative should be taken over by NATO.
Ano won the most votes in Czechia's parliamentary election, though the populist party did not secure an outright majority.

⚡️G7+ group holds emergency meeting (kyivindependent.com/g7-group-holds-emergency-meeting-in-response-to-russian-attacks-on-ukraines-energy-infrastructure/) in response to Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
"The Russians have not abandoned their intentions to plunge Ukraine into darkness on the eve of the new heating season," Deputy Energy Minister Roman Andarak said.

⚡️Explosions rock western Ukrainian cities as Russia launches large-scale drone attack.
Russia launched a wave of drone attacks on Ukrainian cities, including Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk, overnight on Oct. 5.
The Air Force has warned of Russian drones approaching various regions of Ukraine.

⚡️Lithuania's Vilnius airport closed in response to airspace violation (kyivindependent.com/lithuanias-vilnius-airport-closed-in-response-to-airspace-violation/), media reports.
Lithuania's main airport was closed late on Oct. 4 following a sighting of 13 "contraband" balloons flying towards the site, Lithuanian outlet LRT reported.

⚡️Ukraine's existence is in Hungary's national interest, Orban (kyivindependent.com/ukraines-existence-is-in-hungarys-national-interest-orban-says-as-he-continues-to-oppose-eu-aid-to-kyiv/) says as he continues to oppose EU aid to Kyiv.
Having Ukraine separate Hungary from Russia is in Budapest's interest, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said in an interview with Hetek published Oct. 4.

⚡️Georgian police crack down on protesters (kyivindependent.com/georgian-police-crack-down-on-protesters-as-thousands-march-on-presidential-palace/) as thousands march on presidential palace.
Some protesters attempted to break through the palace fences, prompting Georgia's Interior Ministry to declare the demonstration illegal and order the crowd dispersed.
Opposition parties called for mass protests against the ruling pro-Russian Georgian Dream party on the day of the local elections.

⚡️Ukraine slaps new sanctions (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-slaps-new-sanctions-on-russian-oil-industry-drone-production/) on Russian oil industry, drone production.
One of the sanctioned companies is Hardberry-Rusfactor, which produces drones and counter-UAV systems as well as neural network systems for automatic equipment recognition and target designation.
The sanctions also target a Chinese firm, Shenzhen Weiliao International Trade Co., Ltd., for supplying components for drone production at Russia's Yelabuga drone factory.

2 powerful Ukrainian agencies are fighting in the open. Both say only Russia is to win
(kyivindependent.com/ukraines-2-powerful-agencies-are-fighting-in-the-open-both-say-only-russia-is-to-win/)
Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) and the country's top anti-corruption agency are entangled in an escalating confrontation involving raids and arrests.
The conflict is seen as part of a broader struggle between the President's Office and the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU), which says the authorities are trying to eliminate its independence.
The SBU, which is seen as loyal to the President's Office, has arrested NABU employees, accusing them of having ties to Russia, and portrayed the crackdown as an attempt to counteract Moscow's alleged influence on the bureau.

‪Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
· 13m
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA — OCT 5, 2025
■ Uptick in engagements, but casualties well below average
■ Equipment losses well below average, but include 4 tanks
■ Information on overnight attacks was not yet available from the GSUA
■ Increased 🇷🇺 air strikes

Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 05/10/2025 10:12

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Parliamentary elections were held in the Czech Republic: the party of pro-Russian President Andrej Babiš, who opposes broad support for Ukraine, won.
However, it fell short of a majority — 80 out of 200 seats. Babiš called the ammunition supply scheme to Ukraine corrupt and did not rule out an alliance with other European forces opposed to support for Ukraine.
Babiš, inspired by Fico and Orbán, could become the third “anti-European agitator” in the EU.

Municipal elections in Georgia have ended. The Georgian Dream headquarters is celebrating victory — Newsgeorgia.
According to an exit poll by GORBI for Imedi, Georgian Dream candidates are winning mayoral elections in all major cities by a wide margin.
Tbilisi mayoral candidate Kakha Kaladze, former Dynamo Kyiv and AC Milan player, received 76.3% of the vote, according to pro-government polls.
Ruling party leaders, including billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, have already declared victory and congratulated their supporters.
Meanwhile, clashes continue near the presidential palace in Tbilisi: police are using tear gas, and firecrackers are exploding in the air. Protesters are being detained.
Demonstrators are tearing up paving stones, burning Russian flags, and erecting fiery barricades against the police.
Whether Georgians will be able to overcome Mriya on their road to freedom will become clear in the coming hours.

The EU is creating legal grounds to intercept at least 16 suspected Russian-linked oil tankers if they enter the Baltic Sea in the future — EUObserver.
The new measures are being discussed due to drone threats, risks of oil spills, and potential damage to cables by Russia’s shadow fleet.
As part of its 19th round of sanctions, the EU plans to blacklist another 120 Russian oil tankers, bringing the total to 568, according to internal documents obtained by EUObserver. The listing would bar these ships from calling at EU ports or doing business with European companies, including insurers and bunkering service providers.
So far, the EU blacklist has had limited effect, as shadow fleet vessels still freely traverse the Baltic Sea, which belongs to EU states, transporting Russian oil to Asian customers under the “right of innocent passage” established by the 1994 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the 1857 Copenhagen Treaty.
However, under Article 110 of UNCLOS, states may intercept “visiting vessels” if they “have no nationality.” According to leaked EU documents, 16 of the 120 new ships have “undefined” flags and, per the maritime database Eqasis, no real flags.
These ships are Adonia, Apate, Apus, Aquilla II, Bolu, Briont, Ethera, Everdine, Leona, Manaslu, Myra, Nemrut, Omni (now Evali), Samos, Tagor, and Tassos.

President Zelenskyy: Last night, Ukraine was again subjected to a combined Russian attack — more than 50 missiles and around 500 strike drones, including cruise missiles, Shahed UAVs, and Kinzhal missiles. Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson, Odesa, and Kirovohrad regions were targeted. About 10 people are reported injured, and five have been killed. My sincere condolences to all who lost loved ones to this terror.

President Zelenskyy: Last night, Ukraine was again subjected to a combined Russian attack — more than 50 missiles and around 500 strike drones, including cruise missiles, Shahed UAVs, and Kinzhal missiles. Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson, Odesa, and Kirovohrad regions were targeted. About 10 people are reported injured, and five have been killed. My sincere condolences to all who lost loved ones to this terror.

🇺🇸 North Carolina signs Iryna’s Law after the murder of a Ukrainian refugee
North Carolina Governor Josh Stein has signed “Iryna’s Law,” which strengthens bail screening for criminals and bans cash bail for violent and repeat offenders. At the same time, he criticized the possible reinstatement of the death penalty and called for a broader package of security measures.

This night, the Russian Federation carried out a large-scale combined strike on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, using UAVs, cruise, and ballistic missiles.
▪️ The main target was Lviv, which was under rocket and drone attack for four hours. Part of the city is without electricity. “Kinzhal” missiles were also used.
▪️ In Zaporizhzhia, more than 73,000 consumers remain without power. One person has been killed and nine injured.
▪️ Explosions were reported in the Ivano-Frankivsk region.
Strikes were recorded in many other regions of Ukraine.

As a result of one of the most massive attacks on Lviv since the beginning of the war, the Sparrow industrial park caught fire. There is no information about injuries. This is a civilian facility, the mayor of Lviv noted.
Due to the massive combined Russian attack with drones and missiles, parts of Lviv were left without electricity, and public transport operations were suspended as the assault continues.

‼️ In the Chernihiv region, Russians have once again attacked infrastructure facilities, the State Emergency Service reports.
Rescuers are working to clear the aftermath of the shelling.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 05/10/2025 10:16

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

‘Impossible to Survive’: Kyiv Post visits the front line in Dnipropetrovsk region (www.kyivpost.com/post/61424) and sees how evacuations are taking place amidst the sound of the Russian fire.

Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia kills at least one civilian, (www.kyivpost.com/post/61463) wounds six others including a teenager, as Poland says it scrambled jets to secure its airspace.

From fighting for Ukraine to imprisonment in Georgia, (www.kyivpost.com/post/61454) one young activist embodies what he describes as the countries’ shared struggle as Georgians push to unseat the pro-Russian regime.

Putin’s forces killed an entire family of four overnight during Russia’s largest strike on Lviv region since the start of the full-scale invasion.
The family died in their own home — reduced to rubble in seconds.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 05/10/2025 10:19

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇳🇴Norway will send F-35 fighters to Poland — they will be prepared to shoot down drones and aircraft in Polish airspace.
“Our mission in Poland will primarily be to protect NATO territory from aerial threats. We will be ready to intercept [objects] that violate Polish airspace,” said Norwegian Deputy Defence Minister Andreas Flaam.
Norwegian pilots will be based in the Poznań area from October. Decisions about measures against aircraft in Polish airspace will be made case-by-case by the Commander of NATO’s Allied Joint Forces in Europe.
Earlier, Norway’s Defence Minister Tore Sandvik said the F-35s would arrive in Poland “in the coming days.” He described the deployment as a preventative step intended to deter further Russian provocations.
▪️In September, drones and aircraft began being detected across European airspace. Russian UAVs have entered Polish and Romanian airspace, wreckage has been found in Bulgaria and Latvia, and three MiG-31 fighters entered Estonian airspace.
▪️Drone sightings have temporarily closed Copenhagen’s main airport; similar incidents were recorded in Norway, Germany, near the Swedish Navy base, and around Danish military facilities.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has called for increased pressure on Russia following the “shocking footage” from the railway station in Shostka, where Russia attacked passenger trains.

Syrskyi: The situation near the village of Yampil has been stabilized.
The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine wrote that units from the Special Operations Forces, the Ground Forces, and the National Guard are conducting strike-and-search operations in the village to identify and eliminate remaining Russian sabotage groups.
He also added that on the Dobropillia front, Ukrainian Defense Forces are now more effectively striking Russian troop concentrations and destroying their logistics.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 05/10/2025 10:20

Well FUCK about Czechia.

What is it about the rise of the far right? I saw someone online two days ago calling, and this was literally what he wrote, that free speech was so important that people should have the freedom to call for the re-enslavement of black people.

I am stunned. Just no words for how utterly horrific the way things are going.

DrBlackbird · 05/10/2025 11:58

Babiš, inspired by Fico and Orbán, could become the third “anti-European agitator” in the EU

Moscow is so incredibly strategic and cunning in its continuous strategy of funding and mobilising social media against Europe and funding anti European influencers/politicians etc. They’re also strategic about fomenting and exploiting concerns such as those around immigration. Let’s not forget that the million Syrian refugees got up and walked to Europe because of Russian fighters bombing Syrian towns. Almost like it was planned.

Europe and the UK need to fund their fight for democracy and be more strategic in return.

Igotjelly · 05/10/2025 12:24

I think it’s about far more than Ukraine though, you see it here with the rise of Farage and his bunch of morons. They have zero ability to effectively run a country but they’re good as blaming everything bad on some “other” (I.e. them pesky foreigners) and we know that when times are tough the first thing people do is seek an “other” to blame.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 05/10/2025 14:33

Im stunned at how openly it's acceptable to call for appalling things though. Stuff that would rightly have you utterly shunned in previous decades.

It's like all the worms have crept out of their holes and are using SM as loudspeakers to broadcast the worst aspects of us. Jesus.

PerkingFaintly · 05/10/2025 15:02

DrBlackbird · 05/10/2025 11:58

Babiš, inspired by Fico and Orbán, could become the third “anti-European agitator” in the EU

Moscow is so incredibly strategic and cunning in its continuous strategy of funding and mobilising social media against Europe and funding anti European influencers/politicians etc. They’re also strategic about fomenting and exploiting concerns such as those around immigration. Let’s not forget that the million Syrian refugees got up and walked to Europe because of Russian fighters bombing Syrian towns. Almost like it was planned.

Europe and the UK need to fund their fight for democracy and be more strategic in return.

I agree strongly.

I've noticed another new attack vector recently. I want to post about it but need to summon the energy and braincells first (both in short supply here).

notimagain · 05/10/2025 17:13

..I'm afraid this bright idea is something some in the UK were warning off.

Rather than actually increasing defence spending by recruiting people and also buying things, various, that are useful to those recruited, you can increase it by moving spending from other departments into the Defence Budget,.or worse still rob the defence budget by using it to fund none military government functions.

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2025/oct/04/bbc-bosses-want-defence-budget-to-help-pay-for-the-world-service

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